The Stochastic Indicator
- Thread starter jack hershey
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I think so, 6.0.2800. Colina sent the link to the site where the applet comes from, which didn't work. Neither did the home page for that link. Is this toy working for anyone else at the moment?
This is one issue that plagues me whenever I hesitate to enter in a rocket waiting for some "confirmation" (the "baggage" Jack is talking about) and I end up entering at the away side. Then the market immediately moves against me by 1-2 pts, sometimes more. I'm tempted to look for clues on the 1m chart, which is quick to give me reasons to get out. If there were no flaws on the 5m, I usually get whipsawed.
It's tough to stay in until you see a flaw, sometimes it results in larger losses, but more often than not if there is no flaw the trade will end up in the black.
One way to overcome this is to avoid getting in at the away side of the channel. You can wait for the traverse to the right side and if the rocket signal holds, you can get in at the first push to the away side - fine tune it on the 1m.
Take your example - BO at 10:06 - it occured close to the away side of the channel, on DROPPING volume on the 1m = flaw.
1m chart - friend or foe? I find it helpful for entries, but misleading for exits - I try to make my exit decision off the 5m. I moved my 1m chart at the "away side" of one of my monitors, and I try not to look at it too often.
vorzo
It's tough to stay in until you see a flaw, sometimes it results in larger losses, but more often than not if there is no flaw the trade will end up in the black.
One way to overcome this is to avoid getting in at the away side of the channel. You can wait for the traverse to the right side and if the rocket signal holds, you can get in at the first push to the away side - fine tune it on the 1m.
Take your example - BO at 10:06 - it occured close to the away side of the channel, on DROPPING volume on the 1m = flaw.
1m chart - friend or foe? I find it helpful for entries, but misleading for exits - I try to make my exit decision off the 5m. I moved my 1m chart at the "away side" of one of my monitors, and I try not to look at it too often.
vorzo
On the 1m, I will 1st look at P and V, then at indicators.
As nkhoi mentioned, after a 1m VDU (sign of indecision) a stronger move is likely - I'd enter if the 1m BO is in the direction of the 5m signal.
If 1m indicators show a rocket too, I will take that as a "confirmation".
MACD x with rising volume in direction of 5m signal is a good cue to enter a rocket.
Hope this helps,
vorzo
As nkhoi mentioned, after a 1m VDU (sign of indecision) a stronger move is likely - I'd enter if the 1m BO is in the direction of the 5m signal.
If 1m indicators show a rocket too, I will take that as a "confirmation".
MACD x with rising volume in direction of 5m signal is a good cue to enter a rocket.
Hope this helps,
vorzo
... are killing me. Lateral trend the whole day. Rockets failed at day's H/L established in the 1st half hour.
But what EARLY signals tell you it will be a lateral day, before you learn it the hard way?
Day +0.25 / 6 trades
If you realize it early enough, all you have to do is follow the stochs, which take you from one side of the channel to the other.
Volume was definitely a clue, real dry all day. Any other signals?
But what EARLY signals tell you it will be a lateral day, before you learn it the hard way?
Day +0.25 / 6 trades
If you realize it early enough, all you have to do is follow the stochs, which take you from one side of the channel to the other.
Volume was definitely a clue, real dry all day. Any other signals?
Quote from vorzo:
... are killing me. Lateral trend the whole day. Rockets failed at day's H/L established in the 1st half hour.
But what EARLY signals tell you it will be a lateral day, before you learn it the hard way?
Vorzo, I use a very simple rule of thumb. If the previous day was a "trend day", the odds are today won't be. If the previous 2 days are "trend days", the odds are very high today won't be. My definition of a "trend day" is any day that changes >1% close to close. I also use some Market Profile ideas as clues. The CBOT has a great online PDF comprehensively explaining MP.
Personally, I've been having a hard time getting myself to take the rocket trades due to what you describe. Jack would probably say I was in a "stuck state" and he'd be right.
The big question really is: when a rocket fails will it go into CCC or reverse? My suspicion is that most rockets fail into CCC, yet I know Dawg likes to reverse out of most failed rockets. Also, I suspect the longer, or more specifically the IT fractal is where to look for the clues. To me, the answer to this question is a sort of holy grail.
Ok, I've thought about what I just posted. How do you know early in the day it's going to be a range day? Answer: you can't "know".
Ok, then what hints can steer you in the correct direction? Answer: Today we had a relatively wide range in the first hour of trade (market profile says that suggests a range day), that range was never broken the whole day. That's all I got.
Any one else using other concepts? And how early in the day can you truly make an assesment. More times than I care to count, I was convinced of a range day, only to miss out on a really big move. And my "baggage" still nags at me that just taking all the rockets won't work either.
Ok, then what hints can steer you in the correct direction? Answer: Today we had a relatively wide range in the first hour of trade (market profile says that suggests a range day), that range was never broken the whole day. That's all I got.
Any one else using other concepts? And how early in the day can you truly make an assesment. More times than I care to count, I was convinced of a range day, only to miss out on a really big move. And my "baggage" still nags at me that just taking all the rockets won't work either.
Quote from vorzo:
... are killing me. Lateral trend the whole day. Rockets failed at day's H/L established in the 1st half hour.
But what EARLY signals tell you it will be a lateral day, before you learn it the hard way?
Day +0.25 / 6 trades
If you realize it early enough, all you have to do is follow the stochs, which take you from one side of the channel to the other.
Volume was definitely a clue, real dry all day. Any other signals?
This is good work. Period.
We are in a part of the year called summer time. Kiss Monday and friday goodby until labor day or school starts up again.
You are asking powerful Q's. with six trades today, you are demonstrating a very good ability to do wash trades.
I am going to chat through the day. FYI I will come on before open and let you know what the scene is for the rest of the week too.
Friday was exceptional. The weekend started with the Friday's chart tailing into a high. The turn out of the short (down) starting trend for the day was a channel BO up and a 15 min tape ran through the day. A relaxed 10 points in the summertime on a friday.
Now Monday begins and your Q's are right on for every day any day.
Just listen to me with three thoughts in mind:
1. See how I set up for the day in terms of how I go through my preflight check list. It is routine and comprehensive and the same every day.
2. Think about your great killer questions and just where 1. helps answer them.
3. Think hard about the gaps you see between your Q's. That is: my list goes along a,b,c,d,e,f,g,h,i......your Q's go a,...d,e,...... i. as you focus on the gaps, you see how your consciousness is getting triggered in my narrative.
This stuff doe not go away once you process it well enough and enough times.
Before open look at the picture.
a. do 5 min chart viewing. Mine is two screens wide and I see all of tues, weds,thurs and Fri. four plateau connected by trends. we look to be in evne harmonic land. I see that the top of the graph os almost 1000 and the bottom is 975.
b. Volume is scalloped and not very regular for each day. This means the days are not uniform and they look light and anemic.
IT DOeS NOT TAKE MUCH VOLUME TO GET BOS. LOW volume is EXTREMELY LOW.
c. last four opens are all different. BUT ONLY ONE GAP.
d. The rockets, if any are short ones and I need to go to 15 for stretching them out a little.
e. Icebergs stink. There is no hustle anywhere to allow me to stay in icebrgs.
f. 11:00 for last few days means midday shut down.
g. 13:00. I can make a buck everyday on a BO around 13:00 plus. Bracket time for sure every day.
H Slaloms. Count on slaloming. Slalom out of sync on brackets. Be prepared to slalom on the pm BO's (See g.)
i EOD let broker take me out as usual.
You are in a groove at this point. Daily you do the job. Today you washed through 6 turns. The market scale on your chart had to be changed as the day opened because it was too expanded. this says that you are on the R of S/R. After a flat sync, the center is 997 and you, if you are expert, take on a slalom attitude and go in on 5 min chart as fourth bar BO's out below the bottom of third (sync bar). This would take all kinds of guts for less than expert and that means beginners do a wash as the STOC lets them in short for a just a moment. Intermediates hate this, they stay in after beginners wash out on the rocket failure. Ice bergers go out on the 80 line appearance of the slow line about 13:22. Only experts are following the prorata volume failure on the first black bar and reversing into a long as MACD pops out signal after signal along side the first STOC signal as it crosses the 50% and diverges.. This locks experts into long trade with signals ten deep and from all fronts. They are in Change modus and they only get out if a "continuation" comes along. None comes but the flaw VDU before 12:00 is an absolute signal for reversal. (long to short) there is no more up at this point.
Look at the narrative. One thing is really clear. It is impossible for beginners. It is impossible for intermediates and it is impossible for experts. That is how ET feels all over this place.
I do not, however. I feel that everyone is facing one thing. Learning to be patient. We all can learn this. relax. By noon you absolutely know that you can hardly see anything without breaking the rule of the 10 point scale. It is okay for an ice berger to have to wait to 13:22 to make a puny couple of points. It is only 25,000 per year per contract. or 125,000 if you have five contrcts rolling on a Monday in summertime. summertime is invented for only one reason. to teach patience.
Looking at the expert: it was a seven trade day in "change mode." Half trades were 5 points and half were less than 5 points. Vorso was able to see 6 of the seven trades and he did not make much money.
I am not doing a look back and see thing here. We have the MACD set up to tell you the swing peaks. the STOC is confirming. You are now looking carefully and you see the slaloms. we are getting right up to the edge of ending wash trades and using MACD, Volume STOC and price stalls, hitches and dip formations.
I did not step off the 5 min.
You set that lateral, your word: lateral, channel with points 1,2,3 and a new point 3. It is a long even step harmonic. You had it set by 10:30 and you were trading the lateral channel as a slalom. As you use the MACD signal sequences you get to a point to have it made. divergence away, max away, convergence, xover divergence...repeat.....repeat....repeat...repeat....the song of the lateral channel. Pick a word in the sequence to max your profits and reverse there. Most risk is max away. next most is convergence, next most risky is xover. If you soon can see divergence away tapers back to no divergence just before max away, then you jump on that and you are reversing into the peaks and troughs. I say to you.... What the heck, go for it. If you feel jumpy onthis description go up to the 15 and read it. The stoc shows seven "change modus" moves for experts and no action for beginners.
Do the BE DO HAVE once a week for expert. Be an expert. DO expert. Have money that an expert makes.
Three or four five pointers and three or four 2 plus pointers.
Vorso you saw the six trades. There were seven; who cares. All we are doing now is reading the sequences more closely.
The one min is off limits for Mosely. Go to 15 insted and slow it down. ET has a real crew of hair triggers caused by fear. These hair triggers have spent a real great effort on getting to hair triggerville as a consequence of lurking foredges and acting on edgeville failures to perform. We are out of that place forever.
We are facing and smelling "seamless" already.
Vorso your brief post was a very high quality distillation of where you used to be. Excellent.
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