My deepest apologies; I didn't see this coming.
The Stochastic Indicator
- Thread starter jack hershey
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I disagree with the alledged "meaningless"-ness of paper trading. Read the classic "Psyco Cybernetics" by Dr. Maxwell Maltz (hope I spelled it right). A highly emotional/stressful environment is actually the worst way to learn. A playful environment is the best way to learn.
I knew that Vorzo has been in a valid environment when I proposed coat-tailing. Why would I want to risk money with someone who is in a state of panic? ...like myself!!??
I suggest that if 5 people offered Vorzo say, 15% of weekly profits, he could sooner refocus on full days of live foreward testing. Then we could all have some fun, maybe make some money, and accellerate the learning process going on here.
JohnnyK
I knew that Vorzo has been in a valid environment when I proposed coat-tailing. Why would I want to risk money with someone who is in a state of panic? ...like myself!!??
I suggest that if 5 people offered Vorzo say, 15% of weekly profits, he could sooner refocus on full days of live foreward testing. Then we could all have some fun, maybe make some money, and accellerate the learning process going on here.
JohnnyK
JohnnyK, I respectfully suggest that you have misunderstood Maltz. You are making an assumption that your "state" is caused by your environment or something outside of yourself.
That belief is one particular model. As a matter of fact most people live by this model. The challenge with it, it doesn't work to make change.
I realize this might be a bit off subject for the thread, so if you want to discuss this further, please PM.
That belief is one particular model. As a matter of fact most people live by this model. The challenge with it, it doesn't work to make change.
I realize this might be a bit off subject for the thread, so if you want to discuss this further, please PM.
I really appreciate your posts Jack. Each post has so much information and i know i am only understanding a little bit of what could be grasped. I had a few questions to your post above and i also wanted to post the 1 min of this afternoon with annotations to make sure we all can see visually what you are saying.
Jack,
Thanks again for your willingness to teach. Please clarify the two pieces above.
The market is in continuation mode, so the enter-exit tool is the one to use. Shouldn't that mean that the market continues a down rocket tomorrow? Or are you saying we are already at support so the market will be up?
Moreover, please clarify what the 16:20 in the first quote refers to. Are you looking after-hours or is it a typo?
Jack,
Thank you, i think i understand continuation/ change a little better, i previously had thought of it as a state triggered by,for example failure to traverse to the left side of the channel. It sounds like it is more of a state of the indicators being closer to nuetral? This does not make sense to me because you would have to enter a state of change while in the rocket?
I am still a little confused.
i do not know what you mean when you say take off the tape. does this mean don't take the rocket trades and look fo rthe reversals because that is the type of market we are observing?
NOTICE THIS: When cahnge started and it is a second strategy, we have to take off the tape and operate on the neutral and 50% as a reference. THUS WE TURN TO A REVERSAL SIGNAL STRATEGY.
I have a huch your response is going to be slow down and just do rockets.
Thank you, i think i understand continuation/ change a little better, i previously had thought of it as a state triggered by,for example failure to traverse to the left side of the channel. It sounds like it is more of a state of the indicators being closer to nuetral? This does not make sense to me because you would have to enter a state of change while in the rocket?
I am still a little confused.
i do not know what you mean when you say take off the tape. does this mean don't take the rocket trades and look fo rthe reversals because that is the type of market we are observing?
NOTICE THIS: When cahnge started and it is a second strategy, we have to take off the tape and operate on the neutral and 50% as a reference. THUS WE TURN TO A REVERSAL SIGNAL STRATEGY.
I have a huch your response is going to be slow down and just do rockets.
Jack, I like you when you feisty!
No the tread is in progress and you are special. we need to take out some wrinkles that all.
Read the post where I did the "change" blow by blow. Force youself to do it over and over until the focussed intense readings finally assimilate the signals from thecindicator sources. Five time of non disturbed effort will be required.
Once you stop getting new insights you are there.
What this is is like riding in a space station going over the earth. There are "continuations" like continents and "change" like oceans. As you sit there in a rocket (the market one) over a continent, you see that an ocean is coming up soon. So you switch drawers, and "Be Prepared".
Take five laps around the earth looking at the posts that cover the day. Highlight in three colors at least one for each lap and two with just ball point ticks. this will iron it out. Do it.
I am taking people to a new place.
It takes a 1,000 picture stories, tons of parables, and even some lighterfluid on occassion.
You cannot imagine how hard it is to destroy the overbought immediate exit myth on stoc. I taped it to death by making people look at it and never see the divergence.
this is difficult like my explaining stuff to magna. For you though, it will happen. You will get to belief by "seeing" the sequences and transitions. They will appear in your minds eye over and over for years to come.
I lecture on a theory of learning to the faculty of the Dpt Of Psy in lancing. If he sat there he would tell everyone how it's done and not have heard a word I said.
To risk the opportunity to learn then behave accordingly is a tough trip. Here some do and some don't.
A column rpresents the view a person has of the subject to be learned. walk around it. damn that is a big column. walk away.
The person didn't see the column properly at all. It is much bigger ..taller wider and deeper. it is always this way. before you learn you do not know how big what you are learning really is.
ASIDE: I don't believe I can learn this. hey man that guy over there is telling you how to do it. i don't think so.
Once a person is given the chance to make a first step, then it may be possible.
In formal settings all that is required is for the person to arrive and consider one thing. the single thing is to consider is doing the first lesson. take the first step.
My theory allows two people, teacher and learner to do a negotiation. They negotiate the height of the first step. (you geta big one..lol)
Here the height is making money from the get go. I arrange the lesson, you make the money.
Look at what you said. Also look at what magna says for fun. Importantly you said that i will tell you to just trade rockets. hey that is the first lesson .....you alredy got that message clearly......but i am asking you to iron out wrinkles to jump start..
What a lesson is, is called a first success for me. There is only one way to do the column first seen and finally the real column that is there. You do it a success at a time.
I wrecked the Princeton testing services college SAT's. I have deltas of 100 % samples over 8 years that show an aveage 1.23 signma per post test shift in aptitute on a +/- three sigma curve of the largest referent test sample in the world. It is natural for any asshole to ask me which way it shifted. that is how it is possible for me to score assholes so well.
Students I work with can do the test over twice as fast as the time permited as well.
Here is my point. I am making this possible for you and you are doing it. You will get beliefs that are invincable and you behavior will apply these to make you very rich. QED.
As i unfold how reality works in learning and making money, more and more people are going to get the picture that this stuff is the real McCoy.
I have a person here right now and his colleagues that have not learned anything from me when I speak to them. I wish to not be treated as they treat me. I am continually lowering the level of the first lesson that they are learning. I lowered it to a level of just terminology and set theory.. They fit in a subset and it has a name. They have adapted he behavior of that subset completely. What this does for me is erase their comments and end their credibility and I on the other hand expose them to an example, namely me, who is getting the job done.
Moderators do not get it here. So they are disposed of.
The sim /jr guy really did an ace of two posts of a contained system to produice daily 200 bucks for 1 contract in any one of three indexes. Those two posts were elegant and achieve their designed limited positive learning and belief and behavior goals. There were absolutely no dirty words in them. Ultimately the moderator who screwed it all up handed it off the Baron to completely kill woke up too late and apologized. No one solved the ancillary problem that was presented to them by JR/SIM. it remains as a clear demonstration of the way the cart is before the horse around here.
Here we have a bigger problem than dirty words. We have the moderator bullshit problem. By now I have begun to point out the dirty word equivalents even down to a few specific words I want out of here and their attack context by the subset types. The antithesis of success is "meaningless" We now know that nothing done here is meaningless. Other term it that way mistakenly and their posts heve to be deleted.
When you get through the task of five laps on my posts for todays market, you will see that you can never get back to where you were. People who have their lesson plan rolling are adapting stuff, fit pieces in and taking some out, doing iterative refinements on the substantive content of their appraoch and filling voids and tossing redundancies out..
The sequence is do.... be..... have. if i give it to you (so you have it) you never get to " be" (believe and behave). So I build you into success with doing successes. You DO it ...you BE it ...and you HAVE it. Doing it is not meaningless.
BE DO HAVE.
Get he picture that magna's stuff has to be deleted here not just by seeing him as a subset member but by just getting his crap off here by deleting it. I have erased it in several ways because it is wrong and destroys success for the people here if they hear it believe it and then quit as their response behavior to magna bullshit. How in the hell do they assign moderators around here anyway..
Because now we see two separet stategies for use on the market and we see when they apply, we can open up for regular business hours instead of PT operations.
I needed to hide the "change" stuff and the pseudo change stuff with tape temporarily.
I showed only the "continuation" modus. It is exit /entry oriented exclusively.
werei do take the fifteen most frequently usedalgorithms or approaches use in ET now, I would find very few non-"continuation" stategies. and you can see how the 15 would be ranked according to performance. Measures that come up are the "drawdown", chop loosing, stop outs, surprises, etc stuff. notice that the "change" drawer applies to alot of this stuff.
We can now use the 80/20 band to genrate "change modus signal sets.
Think back about the VDU introduction. EWE. i have been slipping in momentum stuff behind it too. (not in time sequences but topically.
by taking five laps through my daysposts, you see the sequences and you will add some 50% and MACD neutral notes on signals from those for the :change" drawer.
This is an event. Not a meaningless thing. LOL.
Today I separated the "continuation post from the change post.
This shows you that each is a substantial portion. Segments of profits come from each. We get trends at differing paces now; meaning we "see" them now.
when you have thetape off the 80/20 you immediately see a different world. A reversal strategy is required here.
For us we clamp onto either "continuation" or "change" we whip out the drawer full of tools. and we continually exteact money from the market.
Here is one small (huge if fact) example. Drawdown. drawdown is the name of a way to loose money, I think. People incorporate it in their approaches. Risk mamagement devolves around stuff like drawdown. These people are using busted stuff somehow.
How do you turn a string of 15% winners into a 8% annual ROI. you continue to hold stocks that are in drawdown and list their current value to calculate the ROI.
What we will do is change drawers and go into a reversal strategy. We use drawdown as a money maker by flipping to the right side of the trade and making money both ways. you see retacements etc as corrolaries to this. you now see that some algorithmns focus on "contrarian" signals only.
All of this has a name in the baking industry. half baking is what these people all do. It is hard to spread butter on half baked profits. we are going to operate in the "well done" arena. I am just explaining that we use "all nine yards". That is a full bolt of material.
Now you can actually skim though stuff that is called an approach and look into why it has weaknesses. the missing ingredient of not being able to change strategies (or even have two inthe first place) is a severe handicap.
So we have erased the saying: "Damn, the market went against me."
If a person enters during a change period using a "Continuation" strategy, he has a problem that is there but not too severe. his misses the flip (reversal) and only exits.
Last point. Look at moving average crossover strategies and figure out what is heuristically wrong. Why are they a dilemma for optimizing money velocity strategies.? bakery clue.
have fun youare in a new place.
I needed to hide the "change" stuff and the pseudo change stuff with tape temporarily.
I showed only the "continuation" modus. It is exit /entry oriented exclusively.
werei do take the fifteen most frequently usedalgorithms or approaches use in ET now, I would find very few non-"continuation" stategies. and you can see how the 15 would be ranked according to performance. Measures that come up are the "drawdown", chop loosing, stop outs, surprises, etc stuff. notice that the "change" drawer applies to alot of this stuff.
We can now use the 80/20 band to genrate "change modus signal sets.
Think back about the VDU introduction. EWE. i have been slipping in momentum stuff behind it too. (not in time sequences but topically.
by taking five laps through my daysposts, you see the sequences and you will add some 50% and MACD neutral notes on signals from those for the :change" drawer.
This is an event. Not a meaningless thing. LOL.
Today I separated the "continuation post from the change post.
This shows you that each is a substantial portion. Segments of profits come from each. We get trends at differing paces now; meaning we "see" them now.
when you have thetape off the 80/20 you immediately see a different world. A reversal strategy is required here.
For us we clamp onto either "continuation" or "change" we whip out the drawer full of tools. and we continually exteact money from the market.
Here is one small (huge if fact) example. Drawdown. drawdown is the name of a way to loose money, I think. People incorporate it in their approaches. Risk mamagement devolves around stuff like drawdown. These people are using busted stuff somehow.
How do you turn a string of 15% winners into a 8% annual ROI. you continue to hold stocks that are in drawdown and list their current value to calculate the ROI.
What we will do is change drawers and go into a reversal strategy. We use drawdown as a money maker by flipping to the right side of the trade and making money both ways. you see retacements etc as corrolaries to this. you now see that some algorithmns focus on "contrarian" signals only.
All of this has a name in the baking industry. half baking is what these people all do. It is hard to spread butter on half baked profits. we are going to operate in the "well done" arena. I am just explaining that we use "all nine yards". That is a full bolt of material.
Now you can actually skim though stuff that is called an approach and look into why it has weaknesses. the missing ingredient of not being able to change strategies (or even have two inthe first place) is a severe handicap.
So we have erased the saying: "Damn, the market went against me."
If a person enters during a change period using a "Continuation" strategy, he has a problem that is there but not too severe. his misses the flip (reversal) and only exits.
Last point. Look at moving average crossover strategies and figure out what is heuristically wrong. Why are they a dilemma for optimizing money velocity strategies.? bakery clue.
have fun youare in a new place.
I'm gone a couple of days and this is what I find when I get back? 
I didn't mean to start this conflict.
Jack, I appreciate your coming to my defense. But, while Magna's comment may have been a little overbearing, I certainly didn't get offended by it, as I explained. He pointed out a truth that we are all aware of: to use Banjo's metaphor, it's not enough to sing well in the shower.
But it's a start. If you can remember how good you were singing in the shower when you go out in front of the people, then you are on to something good. It's called confidence.
Going live directly may be the better approach, but I chose to paper trade due to my previous negative experiences that kinda shot my confidence and left me with a shaky trigger finger.
Someone said said that we don't trade the market but our beliefs about the market. All this paper trading is enabling me to lose my canned beliefs about the market and instead try to figure out how it operates using the training wheels that Jack gave us.
In Magna's defense, I must say that I find him to be a helpful and considerate moderator. He repeatedly defended Jack and withstood considerable abuse from JR and his posse.
I say let's all shake hands. This is a great thread and we have Jack to thank for it.
I didn't mean to start this conflict.
Jack, I appreciate your coming to my defense. But, while Magna's comment may have been a little overbearing, I certainly didn't get offended by it, as I explained. He pointed out a truth that we are all aware of: to use Banjo's metaphor, it's not enough to sing well in the shower.
But it's a start. If you can remember how good you were singing in the shower when you go out in front of the people, then you are on to something good. It's called confidence.
Going live directly may be the better approach, but I chose to paper trade due to my previous negative experiences that kinda shot my confidence and left me with a shaky trigger finger.
Someone said said that we don't trade the market but our beliefs about the market. All this paper trading is enabling me to lose my canned beliefs about the market and instead try to figure out how it operates using the training wheels that Jack gave us.
In Magna's defense, I must say that I find him to be a helpful and considerate moderator. He repeatedly defended Jack and withstood considerable abuse from JR and his posse.
I say let's all shake hands. This is a great thread and we have Jack to thank for it.
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