The Stochastic Indicator

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Quote from dawg:

jack

what are the marking on the 1m referring to?

are you exiting when 1m stoch get near 50%?

Those are the three trades that occurred on Friday for dkm. Each time he went against the 1min MACD.

The situation was that he needed to wash on trades he when into . He couldn't.

Why did he go in? The day's beginning was saying gap up 5
congestion during synch of 5, and there was no point 1,2,3.

He went in three times for his reasons.

I suggested that a person check entries on 1 min to reinforce the 5 min signals. Their were no 5 min signals and no 1 min reinforceing.
 

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1. long rocket

gap up. waited 15m for synch bought break of hod @ 902.25. 10:25 low volume inside bar after a high volume reversal bar...exit @ 902.75

long @ 902.25
sell @ 902.75 +0.50

day: +0.50 15 days: +30.25

2. short rocket

10:45 s(17.24, 18.39) macd hist -1.6

short on break of low @ 897.50 (also low of day)...mkt basing action from 11:00 to 11:15...popped a little exited at 897.50....tried to give trade some room...should have exited after 11:10 low volume bar high was broken...marked end of trend.

short @ 897.50
cover @ 897.50 0.00

day: +0.50 15 days: +30.25

3. short rocket and bo from range

2:30 s(4.00, 13.92) macd hist -0.50

market bo down from range waited for rocket signal...short @ 891.00....holding thru first counter move was hard. vol spike @ 3:30 exited at 883 (too early) after 3:35 bar high was taken out. could have made more but negative thoughts creep in when up 8pts.

short @ 891.00
cover @ 883.00 +8.00

day: +8.50 15 days: +38.25

all i can say is wow what a selloff.
 

Attachments

ES03M simulated.

Huge gap up and everything looked like a rocket so I switched to all sessions view.

#1 rocket signal
Long 9:48 901.00
Sell 10:00 901.00 rocket failed at 9:55 but held longer waiting for point 3 -> washed as 5m MACD looked like crossing down. Also cautious of long side due to gap up.
0.00

#2 rocket signal, long channel broken; fumbled execution cost me 1 pt
Short 10:41 898.75
Cover 11:18 896.00 MACD 5m convergence -> channel broken -> fast line out.
+2.75

#3
Was away from computer until noon (15:00 est). Rocket signal at 14:25. Bounced off right side of channel, no flaws.
Short 15:28 886.00
Cover 16:08 877.25 held a few min after cash mkt close as volume was still strong fro an extra 1.75.
+8.75 A hell of a trade! dawg I hope you rode it from the beginning and scored 15.00!

One word on wash trades - I think the concept, as it was laid out by Jack, makes a big difference in helping you go with the flow instead of against it. Namely if the trade doesn't go your way and there are flaws you shouldn't wait for your stop to be triggered, but rather get out as close to bkeven as possible. It certainly weaned me off point stops.
 

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Quote from jack hershey:

I suggested that a person check entries on 1 min to reinforce the 5 min signals. Their were no 5 min signals and no 1 min reinforceing. [/B]

Jack,

Thank you very much for the detailed response. Much appreciated. To be fair, all signals were present on the 5 min at the time of entry. Macd on the 1 min was away and entwined below zero for the second trade and diverging downwards below zero on the 3rd trade. The 5 min stochastic was memoraby choppy and I guess that in itself should have been a warning.

David
 
dawg I didn't see your post, I was typing up mine. You nailed 8.00 on the last trade in REAL money I think that's awesome.
It's easier to hold through retraces when it's paper money ... it'll be hard to keep the composure when I'll switch to live trades.
 
There are some thread going along that you can use to compare what we are doing with their focus.

The one called What an INCREDible..... in trading shows how poeple do not have specific ways to understand what is going on. A couple people lucked out and others nearly got buried.

We should be collecting, daily, a portion of the H/L range without fail.Compare Friday and Monday volumes. One thing there shows you that there is price movement when the volume exceeds our middle value (10 to 12K) At the lower value (5K) there is not movement.

Another thing that we have in the bank is the congestion convergence and centering sequence. After centering and on rising volume, a trend is going to begin.

I felt that the posts on trades were the most spectacular so far for the fundamental reason that people are able to stay in a trend and also that they can recognize, by standing far enough away and looking, that there are no flaws appearing in the trend and therefore they have absolutely no reason to not continue to make money.

Going to settlement in a day trade issomething that is just as important as practicing wash trades.

I hope to see the daily take increase point by point continually from now on as a direct and simple consequence of the consciousness that it is okay to continue to hold as long as no flaws appear.

when yopu read several of the current threads you can see how few actualy have a clue about looking for flaws.

I really feel the consciousness here is being raised by the reinforcement we are giving each other.
 
Quote from jack hershey:


I hope to see the daily take increase point by point continually from now on as a direct and simple consequence of the consciousness that it is okay to continue to hold as long as no flaws appear.

when yopu read several of the current threads you can see how few actualy have a clue about looking for flaws.

I really feel the consciousness here is being raised by the reinforcement we are giving each other.

Jack,

No doubt it is all covered in previous posts, but could you summarize your info on 'flaws' in one message?

g
 
This was posted in Dawg's journal but wanted to move it over here in case Jack wanted to comment on it.


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Quote from dawg:

Here is an idea... the channels you are drawing are really the key.. they show the turning points of the market... perhaps you should one day... try trading based on the channels alone.. w/o any other indicators except for volume?

like today instead of waiting for the 'rocket' at 10:45 i would have been in much better shape (by about 3.5pts) by getting short when my uptrend channel broke instead of waiting for a rocket signal....that is the area i need to become more comfortable in...sometimes i am afraid of getting whipped or not confident enough in my trend lines...just need to keep working on it and get more comfortable.

thanks.
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I traded with trendlines before reading some of jacks stuff and coming from my point of view much of what he has presented has been a great addition for me. I did not use any indicators before, but have found that using the indicators have been a great way to help me stay in my trades longer and usually gives me a double confirm on my trades and reversals. What I was seeing was that I was not staying in trades long enough when I traded. So the indicators give me a continued reason to stay or get out of trades.

I am still trying to figure out the order of importance I want to base my trades off of. My number one is still my trendlines, but I get confused when say a MACD crosses down yet the stochastics continue to stay over bought. Right now I just use that as a indication to be alert for a possible end to the trade and reversal and then wait for the stochastics to also follow thru for confirm. Also I am still playing with the 1 min charts which I did not look at before -- only looked at the 5 min. But it makes sense to look at the 1 min when the 5 min looks like just big bars of nothing. I am still trying to figure out how to do trades if any based on the 1 min when this happens.
 
Quote from colina:

Jack,

“Many people are deeply deeply affected by something they view at the moment and to the exclusion of seeing loads of other things they could be perusing.”

Guilty as charged, Big Time!

I’m trying hard to raise my awareness. From your comments if I may ask a couple questions here:




“As synch occurs it is definitely like yesterday (Thursday).”

Does sync occur when cash and futures are moving in tandem with approximately the same average spread between the two as exhibited throughout the previous day? If so, in reviewing the charts a)Thursday cash/futs started to move in tandem at approximately 9:37am and b)Friday cash/futs started to move in tandem at approximately 9:35am. Is this correct ? If so, is this what you are referring to from above context?

****Yes Good description. I take a little longer to be sure but you can look back and see it is sometimes that fast. Use 1 min





“So we take a glance at the 1 min chart…….. think about what "tape" is running on what bar duration (fractal)”

A tape is a portion of a price bar chart that has no white space. That is to say, the width of the tape is filled with the high and lows of the price bars. Is this correct?


****yes

Yet it seems as if you are determining tape by viewing the 1 minute chart only

8888No my point was to find tape (30 min) and look at the details on the other (1 min).

, of which the tape is a single bar on the 30 minute. What on the 1 minute chart tells you this?

*****Nothing. You have to go out, meaning reset the duration successively until you get a long enough duration to show tape. then with tape showing you look at the indicators. the indicators will work on all fractals and if they show a rocket on 30 min tape, then it is a flawless trend that is supported by a proper level of volume. This gets rid of the hair trigger stuff. You still run stop log and stay 4 entries back on the C&R's. You are at a place where you do not get frazzled by moment to moment "noise" and you onlt see strong signal. you are making money at a given money velocity and you don't mess with the sort of give and take of price as it builds profits over time.

Periodicity of an indicator? time period between peak and trough of something or other?

**** Money is made in bunches. How long a bunch of money accumulation is turns out to be half a cycle. Because we make money long and short we get two bunches per period.




“At 10:17 the MACD is giving a "short" third signal to you”

Is that because the 1 minute macd is entwining below neutral?

*** there are squences for indicators and sequences that are combinations of all that there is to be seen. A paramount thing for us all to be doing is getting these sequences straight. Take a 100 sheets of paper. On each page just write down a set of events that you see happen. Be looking at things. In about an hour after you get all the sheets done and illuminated like they do in monastories (sp), you find that you have another job to do.

Put the pages in order; it will take three minutes. you notice that from page to page the things are happening simultaneously or they do over lap a little here and there and there are branches and several paths turn out to be possible.

Spent 15 minutes rewriting all the pages and illuminate them too.

wah you now have is about 10,000 words describing descrete events in chains that form a wider web as you go towards the end of the pages.

This whole set of sequences, now integrated, give you a guide. All the time youare somewhere in the pages. they only go ahead. They branch by a special phenomena. The phenomena is called "flaws". You see the darnedest thing in the world before you eyes. Alternative scenarios of possibilities for trends ending are narrowed by roadblocks so that the way it is going to end comes down to fewer and fewer choices.

Soon I am going to start scaring people here. There are a couple here who have had the experience and several others who have found and read the experiences i have provided.

Think about it. If everyone does the 47 minute process for 100 pages that I described above, it means we all have the Lord of the Rings script for day trading this Esmini. day by day we just choose the branches we want to follow to the end of the day.

It is a trilogy as we all know: AM, Midday, and PM.

Here is how I am going to scare you. I am going to be the reader. If I read the 100 pages to you 5 to 15 minutes ahead of the day as it is unfolding, you will find that you get a different attitude about wealth.

What we are discovering is simply this: you can make money continually if you know what is going on.

dkm thinks my scoring doesn't work. Hey for sure it does not in his experience. But for me, it does work and it is an adjunct to other things.

In a nut shell and by boiling stuff down, you will, I insist, come to the conclusion that there is a replacement for everything that doesn't work. This sounds obtuse. Obtusely speaking, you are required to get rid of stuff that doesn't work and carry forward that which does. Sort.

Anticipation is what replaces all the other stuff. The equities stuff i do was named by others. The name is: Catch Up: Tomorrow's Paper Today. For intraday, so far there is no name. I worked with Bucky Fuller for about three years. When he arrived at where I worked; he took over one of the three "front" offices. We met. On his wall was a picture of his sailboat. It's name is "anticipation" Mine was named "Consort" because it was a King's cruiser (US 122) named after the king of Sweden. Bucky always wore more than one wrist watch because he changed time zones all the time.

So we have an anticipatory approach and system. By by passing predicting and statistics and all macro things we get home free. So far I hope you are monitoring and your consciousness is increasing. as you head to the land of "there's nothing new anymore", I hope you have a record of all that is old and it is arranged like a topography. There is a god reason to know the big pieces and how they are arranged and the filler that comes in between.

If and as I begin a narrative of the passing days. I will go from what has happened to what is happening and then to what is coming up. It is just reading the sequences. I can read from the past chart, I can read from the monitor on the screen , or I can read ahead on the sequence lists.

Our goal is to have leading signals that come along as flaws in the sequencing. The flaws block alternative paths and push us along the way to the end of the trade. As a paper saver, I keep my sequence lists on a Mobius strip. The branches all end like capillaries from arteries and the capillaries go on to to be collected by veins so the Mobius strip gets a little stringy for a while.

One thing that is for sure by using it, you know three things: where you are; what is next; and how fast things are changing.

By using it as a scare tactic, it becomes more and more useful. To have a universal answer sheet, as you see, only takes about 47 minutes to get done.

(Trying to get on the same page as everyone here, thanx in advance)
 
Ice bergers unite!!!


Do you see that VDU's are followed by volume lines of a particular color?

When you see the STOC go back to 50%, does a VDU follow?

Go to the tape. See the STOC going to the trend.....

13:15 is arriving at 14:00 plus today.
 
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