The Stochastic Indicator
- Thread starter jack hershey
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tampa and dawg,
Although unfortunate for you guys, I'm glad to see I'm not the only one having trouble today with this. I followed along with this yesterday and it basically ended the day flat.
I backtested my understanding of Jack's rocket trades by hand for last week. Last week my understanding would have ended the week +17.75 points per contract.
2/24 +2.00
2/25 +6.25
2/26 -2.25
2/27 +8.75
2/28 +3.00
I figured I'd give it a shot today and I got destroyed. Maybe today was just a bad day for this system, since my understanding DID do well last week. If Jack makes money today, then I am obviously missing something.
Although unfortunate for you guys, I'm glad to see I'm not the only one having trouble today with this. I followed along with this yesterday and it basically ended the day flat.
I backtested my understanding of Jack's rocket trades by hand for last week. Last week my understanding would have ended the week +17.75 points per contract.
2/24 +2.00
2/25 +6.25
2/26 -2.25
2/27 +8.75
2/28 +3.00
I figured I'd give it a shot today and I got destroyed. Maybe today was just a bad day for this system, since my understanding DID do well last week. If Jack makes money today, then I am obviously missing something.
Take heart, it was a tough day. But go back and reread Jack's posts - there are clues on how to avoid trouble on days like today - basically the one minute chart.
DON'T GIVE UP! Just keep reading Jack's posts, as well as others who understand the method, and a lightbulb will go off, I promise...
can someone go more in depth with the 1m. I have really no idea what to be looking for when i should not be getting into a trade. I can use it when i am in a trade a looking to exit.
I am going to review the trades from last week and try and observe what was going on with the 1m to try and figure out what i can do, but if someone could give some examples it would be great.
Thanks.
I am going to review the trades from last week and try and observe what was going on with the 1m to try and figure out what i can do, but if someone could give some examples it would be great.
Thanks.
dawg,
I'm in the same boat. Don't really know what I'm supposed to do with the 1 min. chart. For the 5 min. chart, at least there are rules for it (stoch and MACD values). For the 1 min., I don't really know what the rules are.
I will declare right now, all my trading today was based off the 5 min. chart. I did not look at the 1 min. chart once. HOWEVER, when I did my backtest for last week, it ended the week +17.75 NOT using a 1 min. chart at all and ONLY looking at the 5 min. chart. So, I thought I might be ok. Today, I'm starting to wonder if maybe I do need to use the 1 min. chart. But then again, maybe today was just a bad day for this type of system, entirely.
BTW, When I did my backtest by hand last week, I used 5 min. closing bars and today I used 5 min. closing bars. So I did not trade the system differently today than I tested it last week.
Quote from Gordon Gekko:
dawg,
I'm in the same boat. Don't really know what I'm supposed to do with the 1 min. chart. For the 5 min. chart, at least there are rules for it (stoch and MACD values). For the 1 min., I don't really know what the rules are.
I will declare right now, all my trading today was based off the 5 min. chart. I did not look at the 1 min. chart once. HOWEVER, when I did my backtest for last week, it ended the week +17.75 NOT using a 1 min. chart at all and ONLY looking at the 5 min. chart. So, I thought I might be ok. Today, I'm starting to wonder if maybe I do need to use the 1 min. chart. But then again, maybe today was just a bad day for this type of system, entirely.
There was more trending and follow-through last week.
I am FAR from an expert on how to use the one-minute, but today I stayed out if the one-minute MACD was not moving in the same direction as the five-minute signal. Is that the right way to do it? I'm not really sure - but it kept me out of trouble.
yeah, it's a bitch sitting here like a moron waiting and waiting - but losing is a much bigger bitch.
Have faith - paper trade - until it all starts to make sense. Judging from other posts I seen from you, you keep moving from one method to another (we all do!), but there is something to all of this. Don't get discouraged. Jack could make it easier to understand - but I think he wants you to think about what the market, what the indicators are really saying. The "rockets" are a piece of cake when their is follow-through. The trick is to discover when their won't be. You seem to have the entries down pat. You need to work on when to ignore them.
Look< I understand fearing missing the boat, and putting all those points in your account. And I know all about looking at something that seems to always work - until you actually trade it. This ain't the Holy Grail - but there is something to it, and a lot more to come. Jack is not easy to follow, and is determined to bring you along at his speed. This is a breakout method - there ain't been too many the past two weeks. Don't give up.
At 10:35est. Long entry 828.75 out at 10:41est at 827.50.
long 828.75 @ 10:35est
out 827.50 @ 10:41est
loss -1.25
At 11:35est the short signal was not qualified with MACD 5/13/6 on the 5min. So no entry was made. MACD did come up but it was lower volume lunch hours and the volume was not right...so forget this signal.
At 13:47est Long entry 823.25 @ 13:47est. At 13:49 some traders might interpret this signal not an entry yet. I trade the "break touch" method not the "break close" method on the 20/80 line. Just so the MACD is kewl, playball and stay in the trade. At 13:56 MACD was kewl but 14,1,3 was signalling "get out" This was not my rocket...so try again next time.
long 823.25 @ 13:47est
out 822.50 @ 13:56est
loss 0.75
At 14:15 est short at 820.00. Now I screwed this one up...the exit was at 14:19 at 820.50.....but oh no...i could not tke that half point loss. This is where wash trade training comes in handy. I though I could stay in the trade when the 1min stoch 14,1,3.....10,2,3.....5,2,3 were under the 50% line. I just made this rule up...as Jack never said this. Well to make a long story short....exit 821.25 at 11:29est.
short 820.00 @ 14:15est
out 821.25 @ 14:29est
loss 1.25
OK...Well after the Mid-day Jack post....I tried a long entry at 13:36est of 821.25...... AT THE 50% LINE of the stoch 14,1,3...5min. I figured my timing was off today and try a different wave-length..Well this paid off. People...only do this if you know how...I just got lucky...but the macd and the 1min all gave me the confidence I needed for this entry. THe turnaround at the 50 line...was not happenning...it would bust throughand keep going...I caught my rocket early!!! today was such a low range day, I did not get what I deserved for my great entry. But this technique is for advanced ...but i was able because today was rather slow. PRACTICE WASH TRADES...LEARN REVERSALS...DEAL WITH MONEY IN THE FIRST YEAR...AND FIGURE OUT JACK'S LANGUAGE.
long 821.25 @ 13:36est
out 823.50 @ 14:41est
Michael B.
long 828.75 @ 10:35est
out 827.50 @ 10:41est
loss -1.25
At 11:35est the short signal was not qualified with MACD 5/13/6 on the 5min. So no entry was made. MACD did come up but it was lower volume lunch hours and the volume was not right...so forget this signal.
At 13:47est Long entry 823.25 @ 13:47est. At 13:49 some traders might interpret this signal not an entry yet. I trade the "break touch" method not the "break close" method on the 20/80 line. Just so the MACD is kewl, playball and stay in the trade. At 13:56 MACD was kewl but 14,1,3 was signalling "get out" This was not my rocket...so try again next time.
long 823.25 @ 13:47est
out 822.50 @ 13:56est
loss 0.75
At 14:15 est short at 820.00. Now I screwed this one up...the exit was at 14:19 at 820.50.....but oh no...i could not tke that half point loss. This is where wash trade training comes in handy. I though I could stay in the trade when the 1min stoch 14,1,3.....10,2,3.....5,2,3 were under the 50% line. I just made this rule up...as Jack never said this. Well to make a long story short....exit 821.25 at 11:29est.
short 820.00 @ 14:15est
out 821.25 @ 14:29est
loss 1.25
OK...Well after the Mid-day Jack post....I tried a long entry at 13:36est of 821.25...... AT THE 50% LINE of the stoch 14,1,3...5min. I figured my timing was off today and try a different wave-length..Well this paid off. People...only do this if you know how...I just got lucky...but the macd and the 1min all gave me the confidence I needed for this entry. THe turnaround at the 50 line...was not happenning...it would bust throughand keep going...I caught my rocket early!!! today was such a low range day, I did not get what I deserved for my great entry. But this technique is for advanced ...but i was able because today was rather slow. PRACTICE WASH TRADES...LEARN REVERSALS...DEAL WITH MONEY IN THE FIRST YEAR...AND FIGURE OUT JACK'S LANGUAGE.
long 821.25 @ 13:36est
out 823.50 @ 14:41est
Michael B.
LOL, kill that habit FAST. That type of thinking is EXACTLY what gets a lot of people into trouble. I've been there. Rationalizing a position that is not going your way is a KILLER.
Trouble is, even if you can get rid of that habit (like I did), it still doesn't guarantee that you'll make money. Just look at how I did today. I followed my rules perfectly, but I still had a bad day.
One more thing...
After today's debacle, I am hesitant to trade this again with real money. So watch tomorrow be a day when this system makes 8 points. :-/
I don't know what I'm gonna do yet.
After today's debacle, I am hesitant to trade this again with real money. So watch tomorrow be a day when this system makes 8 points. :-/
I don't know what I'm gonna do yet.
Quote from dawg:
I did 4 trades, passed on the last one (2:45) and was -3.00 on the day. For the week -2.25. Just chopped to pieces the last two days. -6.50 last 2 days. Crapola.
I did about the same today as yesterday... Not gooood... If behind on the curve, get out and stand aside. Ok, so tomorrow I'll stand aside and see what's what. I'm also in agreement with all that I'm not sure how to use the 1m chart but I did watch it very closely today. Unless I missed some the 1m only had two times that it went +/- .4, once positive and once negative so I don't think we should be watching for that. This did result in some quick moves though. I did see several times that the stoch was poking it's nose past the trigger lines when the 5m wasn't even close. Need to watch this more and watch the direction of the MACD...
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