Link:http://groups.google.com/groups?hl=...=en&lr=&ie=UTF-8&q=author:pjones%40yahoo.com+
> It would seem to me that bracketing a thinner market such as the DJ
> might result in your stops get picked off occasionally on false
> breakouts engineered by locals. Has this ever been a problem for you?
I get picked off several times a week...always, ugh, always because of my impatience. I am in a stupid mindset where I always think things are moving faster than they are. (My hobby is glider acrobats.) That often is the cause of the market reaching to me and turning a stop into a market order. If I'm doubling then usually I'm just in earlier and the results are moot. I know my broker loves the market (the floor) more than me...lol but I resist the idea that engineering is going on for chump change compared to the profits in the main events.
> > I watch the overnight shifts get
> > cleaned out and have a preset spread for my futures index (DJ9H) to >attain relative to INDU as they get the that spread (20-30 points) >then I know they are going to start to move together.
> Does this preset spread(20-30 points) take into account the daily
> shrinkage of the premium number? It is a slow migration actually and
>there is also an over lay of the intermediate term trend of the market >as a whole. so i was a little cavalier in my comment. but there is a >spread that shows up; its value is there day to day and you will actually see the two indicators slip into place... then there is the power you gain in analysis once you are calibrated...it is then you see the lag of the futures index and you can use it on a secondary level to judge the strength of the significant trend of the day. I am a little fractal here. I try to minimize my number of trades in a day primarily because of the emotional level that that achieves for me. i don't really know what a loose goose is but I prefer being one rather than a hyped humming bird. So I try to use the spread oscillation (it ranges) to keep me connected to the slowest trend of the possible trends on the table. If the rate of movement picks up I watch the spread like a hawk to pick off the end of a leg. By overriding a working stop with a phone call and grabbing a bounce with a
double. If it is the usual situation I then go to a short bar screen and check the drop off in volume..expect a congestion pop out of the bounce on a phone call. And wait for the ensuing sequence where i graphically determine my bracket back in after it centers.
>
> > Up to that point the futures
> > index is a maverick as far as I am concerned. FYI for the last two days the sync occurred at about 7:50 MST (9:50EST) or about twenty minutes into the day. From that point on they remain in sync. As the spread varies it becomes a powerful indicator of the lag in the DJ9H or SPOOS. the market takes the trade on for me as soon as it hits one of the two bracket stops I have in and the other is my first trailing stop. i note in a column next to my working stops the next ones I will be setting from a line chart I read continually. Once I write it down I will use it when I need to tighten my stop as the trend continues. As soon as i can establish trend in each of three separate concurrent ways, I go mostly on the confirmation of the the three ways. right now I am on my fifth trade for the day. One loosing ( a scratch out in congestion). this is as a consequence of lateral motion that runs into a trend slope line to the right of my trend I use a moving linear regression line to try to accomplish this, but it is not always on the right side(as opposed to left side) of the trend.
> Is there a better way?
>
two ways to get the regression to tip you off. make a pinwheel of three regression lines where their ratio of period is 4:2:1. the right sides of the lines are always flush on "now" don't offset them to have them rotate on their half lengths. you are really in a good place with regression. Very quickly you will begin to observe the rotation of the pinwheel is a tip off for the reversal of trend. and you will see easily when you are in congestion: they will all swep into a "flat" ahead of time. You can also get a look at the "centering value" to see what the possible bracket reentry might be.
i ease people into day trading on three successive levels of using slopes to set stops. Predicting the market is absolute bullshit as you have probably gathered from my comments. But anticipation is thr name of the game. the pinwheel will really give you a kick. But try this too. i tried to get Mark to consider making nodes of market conditions by pairing formation and slope characterizations then linking them. It is a blast to do it. Several evolutions will occur. what shows up finally is a map that can be operated upon by using Alexander's method (lol.. some of the second WW vets are going to see how old i am here...it is a technique to establish how to fight a war with the least communications...see saving priv Ryan). Okay map time. what you discover is that different conditions occur most frequently according to the velocity of the trading.. Viola.
Always know the period of the velocity of the trading. I got these
periodicities by analyzing. Punch line: you have to set your slope
indicators always to the right of the chart for the market far enough so to intercept them only when the natural volatility won't let them be
intercepted. Just keep in mind for a while that it is possible.
Envision your goal is to use slopes as trend triggers (to get out..and know if it is a reversal to get into or not get into). The first priority is getting stoped right up there on a long or right down there on a short and not being too close to get faked out. I use a phantom bar that is based on the two most recent bars. and I vary the bar duration according to the periodicity the market is operating in. Then I have that bar out ahead of the current bar showing me where to set the slope line to hit the bar end. how I construct the bar is the absolute nuts. it turns upside down (changes color for me so I know it happened and it tells me a reversal is coming). people who use it really look at me funny when i meet
them...lol.
To be more relaxed during the day I often use a longer duration of
periodicity than the market is dictating to me. And even more humourous I run two of the phantoms where they are staggered by half of the periodicity that I am using and i use slightly different colors. From a cold start it takes about three days to adapt to this stuff and after that whoever their broker is, he wants to get on a plane and find out how they know what is going on.
Oh the other great value of this stuff is that if I am out I then use it as my rentry brackets for taking on trades. the scalpers factor themselves into the values automatically as well.
> It would seem to me that bracketing a thinner market such as the DJ
> might result in your stops get picked off occasionally on false
> breakouts engineered by locals. Has this ever been a problem for you?
I get picked off several times a week...always, ugh, always because of my impatience. I am in a stupid mindset where I always think things are moving faster than they are. (My hobby is glider acrobats.) That often is the cause of the market reaching to me and turning a stop into a market order. If I'm doubling then usually I'm just in earlier and the results are moot. I know my broker loves the market (the floor) more than me...lol but I resist the idea that engineering is going on for chump change compared to the profits in the main events.
> > I watch the overnight shifts get
> > cleaned out and have a preset spread for my futures index (DJ9H) to >attain relative to INDU as they get the that spread (20-30 points) >then I know they are going to start to move together.
> Does this preset spread(20-30 points) take into account the daily
> shrinkage of the premium number? It is a slow migration actually and
>there is also an over lay of the intermediate term trend of the market >as a whole. so i was a little cavalier in my comment. but there is a >spread that shows up; its value is there day to day and you will actually see the two indicators slip into place... then there is the power you gain in analysis once you are calibrated...it is then you see the lag of the futures index and you can use it on a secondary level to judge the strength of the significant trend of the day. I am a little fractal here. I try to minimize my number of trades in a day primarily because of the emotional level that that achieves for me. i don't really know what a loose goose is but I prefer being one rather than a hyped humming bird. So I try to use the spread oscillation (it ranges) to keep me connected to the slowest trend of the possible trends on the table. If the rate of movement picks up I watch the spread like a hawk to pick off the end of a leg. By overriding a working stop with a phone call and grabbing a bounce with a
double. If it is the usual situation I then go to a short bar screen and check the drop off in volume..expect a congestion pop out of the bounce on a phone call. And wait for the ensuing sequence where i graphically determine my bracket back in after it centers.
>
> > Up to that point the futures
> > index is a maverick as far as I am concerned. FYI for the last two days the sync occurred at about 7:50 MST (9:50EST) or about twenty minutes into the day. From that point on they remain in sync. As the spread varies it becomes a powerful indicator of the lag in the DJ9H or SPOOS. the market takes the trade on for me as soon as it hits one of the two bracket stops I have in and the other is my first trailing stop. i note in a column next to my working stops the next ones I will be setting from a line chart I read continually. Once I write it down I will use it when I need to tighten my stop as the trend continues. As soon as i can establish trend in each of three separate concurrent ways, I go mostly on the confirmation of the the three ways. right now I am on my fifth trade for the day. One loosing ( a scratch out in congestion). this is as a consequence of lateral motion that runs into a trend slope line to the right of my trend I use a moving linear regression line to try to accomplish this, but it is not always on the right side(as opposed to left side) of the trend.
> Is there a better way?
>
two ways to get the regression to tip you off. make a pinwheel of three regression lines where their ratio of period is 4:2:1. the right sides of the lines are always flush on "now" don't offset them to have them rotate on their half lengths. you are really in a good place with regression. Very quickly you will begin to observe the rotation of the pinwheel is a tip off for the reversal of trend. and you will see easily when you are in congestion: they will all swep into a "flat" ahead of time. You can also get a look at the "centering value" to see what the possible bracket reentry might be.
i ease people into day trading on three successive levels of using slopes to set stops. Predicting the market is absolute bullshit as you have probably gathered from my comments. But anticipation is thr name of the game. the pinwheel will really give you a kick. But try this too. i tried to get Mark to consider making nodes of market conditions by pairing formation and slope characterizations then linking them. It is a blast to do it. Several evolutions will occur. what shows up finally is a map that can be operated upon by using Alexander's method (lol.. some of the second WW vets are going to see how old i am here...it is a technique to establish how to fight a war with the least communications...see saving priv Ryan). Okay map time. what you discover is that different conditions occur most frequently according to the velocity of the trading.. Viola.
Always know the period of the velocity of the trading. I got these
periodicities by analyzing. Punch line: you have to set your slope
indicators always to the right of the chart for the market far enough so to intercept them only when the natural volatility won't let them be
intercepted. Just keep in mind for a while that it is possible.
Envision your goal is to use slopes as trend triggers (to get out..and know if it is a reversal to get into or not get into). The first priority is getting stoped right up there on a long or right down there on a short and not being too close to get faked out. I use a phantom bar that is based on the two most recent bars. and I vary the bar duration according to the periodicity the market is operating in. Then I have that bar out ahead of the current bar showing me where to set the slope line to hit the bar end. how I construct the bar is the absolute nuts. it turns upside down (changes color for me so I know it happened and it tells me a reversal is coming). people who use it really look at me funny when i meet
them...lol.
To be more relaxed during the day I often use a longer duration of
periodicity than the market is dictating to me. And even more humourous I run two of the phantoms where they are staggered by half of the periodicity that I am using and i use slightly different colors. From a cold start it takes about three days to adapt to this stuff and after that whoever their broker is, he wants to get on a plane and find out how they know what is going on.
Oh the other great value of this stuff is that if I am out I then use it as my rentry brackets for taking on trades. the scalpers factor themselves into the values automatically as well.
