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The Stochastic Indicator
- Thread starter jack hershey
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We are in a congestion ,convergence, centerin modus on the IT.
I thnk we have the charts up on here are this point.
Personally have your own done where you are on the 30 min and the 60 or daily. whatever gives you the two items
You need a channel of the quarter and you need to see this sixth traverse in that channel.
Our country is getting a little frazelled around the edges in many ways; this shows up as uncertainty in the infinite scheme of things. Uncertainty, in financial facets, leads to inaction. More than just Summertime.
We are in a very low volatility setting now. that is why even a 5,2,3 is appearing to lag. It is not a maths lag phenomena though. It isprimarily that the data is so far inside sigma deviations that there is no impact of new dats in comparison to the dta being dropped out.
Get the charts done and understood. What ever is going to happen, good or bad, that comes up will be impacting first on fast fractals and then ripple back to the longer term ones.
Since we have no experience with the depth of the situations we are in now, we can expect, once uncetainties become certainties that things will begin to move for protection of resources or for problem solving applications that are workable. We are exhausting a great deal of utility in our institutions at this point. I feel like I am writing something for the 5 oclock helicopter. lol
I thnk we have the charts up on here are this point.
Personally have your own done where you are on the 30 min and the 60 or daily. whatever gives you the two items
You need a channel of the quarter and you need to see this sixth traverse in that channel.
Our country is getting a little frazelled around the edges in many ways; this shows up as uncertainty in the infinite scheme of things. Uncertainty, in financial facets, leads to inaction. More than just Summertime.
We are in a very low volatility setting now. that is why even a 5,2,3 is appearing to lag. It is not a maths lag phenomena though. It isprimarily that the data is so far inside sigma deviations that there is no impact of new dats in comparison to the dta being dropped out.
Get the charts done and understood. What ever is going to happen, good or bad, that comes up will be impacting first on fast fractals and then ripple back to the longer term ones.
Since we have no experience with the depth of the situations we are in now, we can expect, once uncetainties become certainties that things will begin to move for protection of resources or for problem solving applications that are workable. We are exhausting a great deal of utility in our institutions at this point. I feel like I am writing something for the 5 oclock helicopter. lol
Quote from Magna:
Attached is a 30m of the current IT channel(s). I'm having some problems with my screen-capture across multiple monitors but I'll get this figured out and try to have other charts posted by the weekend. (Note: it's captured from 1280x1024 screen so you may need to adjust in your browser)
My two channels are identical to yours. Thanks so much
Quote from oddiduro:
Got a rocket signal on the 15 min, but volume is bad on the 5 min.
I think it is best to hang out on the slower fractals today.
This is the CCC phenomena for the IT legs.
yesterday, i needed to get you to heed the xover into congestion from convergence.
The slaloming goes to it's last swings on congestion. I know that a couple of you got whipsawed for example. you must take your previosly developed skills in pulling the trigger andcontiue to apply them as usual at the higher frequency. At the same time you watch volume (I mentioned it specifically to several) to see when the signals as summerging into the mud of the noise.
The fact that we are at this point in 6 months is really super to have happening.
The sequences are there and you have the C&R frequency and the stop log reinforcing it all.
You are in the pilots seat. we have reached the place on slaloming where you are just holding the stick and resisting the pressure you feel coming form it more or less. This is the fine tuned flying you are capable of doing.
Since the goal here is help one another build a toolbox for the onset of the post labor day season, I will contribute what I learned today.
Rockets are kiss.
It is the best of all possible worlds.
Enter on the rocket, immediately. If is takes off, you make money. If it fails, you still make money as a failed BO. As we all know, rockets have been failing right out of the launch pad of late. When the MACD goes red and the STOC breaks 75 to the downside, simply reverse.
Of all the nuances that we have learned, it appears to me at this point that rockets are the foundation.
Have confidence in the rockets, the rest will fall into place.
That is all I have to report.
Regards
Oddi
Rockets are kiss.
It is the best of all possible worlds.
Enter on the rocket, immediately. If is takes off, you make money. If it fails, you still make money as a failed BO. As we all know, rockets have been failing right out of the launch pad of late. When the MACD goes red and the STOC breaks 75 to the downside, simply reverse.
Of all the nuances that we have learned, it appears to me at this point that rockets are the foundation.
Have confidence in the rockets, the rest will fall into place.
That is all I have to report.
Regards
Oddi
As Jack is trying take us to higher level of trading, I thought this past post from 1999 is still one of the best.
'Monitor the volume. Ryan Jones is doing this; he sees that there is a lot of time taken to form his constant volume bars. He also notices that they are not as volatile as price bars slowly form. He doesn't change gears here. I think this is a stuck point that you wanted to know about. We are just looking at bars of a long time duration and noticing the volume is in dry up. We stay with a long duration (30 min).
Once there is more agreement by sellers and buyers on price there is more volume. DU always in its own good time ends with and increase in volume. I call this First Rising Volume. To make money you determine when this occurs and enter the market.
From above where turn over = 1 2 3 4 ( velocity)
here is the chart of momentum = 1 4 9 16 (velocity squared)
The price lifts off at some point above 1 for the normal turn over of daily volume. I track it simply as follows. I prorate DU volume through the period I am trading (use a day for a now but think of the fractal nature of markets where you can operate on any shorter duration if you want as long as you know how to monitor it.
All of this is bilateral so long or short it works the same way. Were you using the scoring I recommend you would see DU at 1 to 0, the FRV at 0 to 7 and the hold from 7 to 6 to 5 to 4 and out for longs. the corresponding short scores are DU at 5 to 4, FRV at 4 to 3, the short hold through 2, 1, 0 and out for shorts.
what I post you will see over and over again I let the market tell me what the values are. The market knows so I read them as I am told. I am only interested in making money. I am very neutral about what I am being told. I never even think about being right because I "know" something.
To translate the above to the futures game, i use three paces for the index: 5 to 30 seconds as fast pace, 5 to 30 minutes as medium pace, and 30 minutes to an hour as slow pace. The respective names of the paces for me are legs, drifts, and trends. the volume is my indicator that precedes the price. and it takes an increase in volume which is then sustained to create moves at any of the paces. The intensitiy of the volume determines the pace.
Scratch trades are created when volume spikes and doesn't sustain itself. It is not an emotional thing. as you observe volume not changing it rate ovr time on the sidelines, you will also se the price move laterally in a normal range of noise (scalping etc) as the congestion continues the volume will usually slacken and the congestion moves to a stage of convergence and the phenomena shinks further to a centering of price about a pivot price on very little volume. Determine brackets on this centering and outside the the scalping noise range. Move to shorter bars for observation purposes.
Keep filling in your log with observations and make adjustments if necessary. As the volume stops declining be prepared to place your stops since they are adjusted and refined by now. as you see the bars begin to show less centering and the volume move up aftr it stopped declining it is about the time to consider using the phone and going through the paces. The later you get the orders in, the less time you are in suspended animation. What you are going to do is see the breakout look for brief formations, note each one and list a C&R possibility for the trailing stop that wasn't filled as the trend went the other way. if the BO is fast stay a formation behind with the trailing stop, if the BO is a drift (medium pace) stay two formations behind for the trailing stop, if the BO is slow (trend) then stay three formations behind.
The volume will continue to stay up and the formations (hitch, stall or retracement) will be repeated. As time passes hitches are replaced by stalls, stalls are replaced by retracements. Finally retracements and advances are equal and congestion again prevails. as you see the move forming a "knee or rolling over from its pace you begin the take each of the noted potential stops you have written down for C&R's getting closer together in value. Its time to tighen up on the stops if you see that going to the sidelines is appropriate. hat is going on is that the momentum has come to an end.
The market tells you what to do. ASM trades through everything perpetually and glides through these shorter momentum periods in a way that resembles trading secondary trends above sighted. Periods of short term momentum don't necessarily alternate in direction one after another. It is possible to see them as a series of steps where a series of short term momentums on a given fractal level form a flight of stairs on a longer position trading level of play (with an occassional short term reversal).
If you are on the short intraday fractal level of legs, drifts and trends, then you can do your C&R's as reversals as appropriate when there is a signal to do so. Double down the C&R trailing stop.'
'Monitor the volume. Ryan Jones is doing this; he sees that there is a lot of time taken to form his constant volume bars. He also notices that they are not as volatile as price bars slowly form. He doesn't change gears here. I think this is a stuck point that you wanted to know about. We are just looking at bars of a long time duration and noticing the volume is in dry up. We stay with a long duration (30 min).
Once there is more agreement by sellers and buyers on price there is more volume. DU always in its own good time ends with and increase in volume. I call this First Rising Volume. To make money you determine when this occurs and enter the market.
From above where turn over = 1 2 3 4 ( velocity)
here is the chart of momentum = 1 4 9 16 (velocity squared)
The price lifts off at some point above 1 for the normal turn over of daily volume. I track it simply as follows. I prorate DU volume through the period I am trading (use a day for a now but think of the fractal nature of markets where you can operate on any shorter duration if you want as long as you know how to monitor it.
All of this is bilateral so long or short it works the same way. Were you using the scoring I recommend you would see DU at 1 to 0, the FRV at 0 to 7 and the hold from 7 to 6 to 5 to 4 and out for longs. the corresponding short scores are DU at 5 to 4, FRV at 4 to 3, the short hold through 2, 1, 0 and out for shorts.
what I post you will see over and over again I let the market tell me what the values are. The market knows so I read them as I am told. I am only interested in making money. I am very neutral about what I am being told. I never even think about being right because I "know" something.
To translate the above to the futures game, i use three paces for the index: 5 to 30 seconds as fast pace, 5 to 30 minutes as medium pace, and 30 minutes to an hour as slow pace. The respective names of the paces for me are legs, drifts, and trends. the volume is my indicator that precedes the price. and it takes an increase in volume which is then sustained to create moves at any of the paces. The intensitiy of the volume determines the pace.
Scratch trades are created when volume spikes and doesn't sustain itself. It is not an emotional thing. as you observe volume not changing it rate ovr time on the sidelines, you will also se the price move laterally in a normal range of noise (scalping etc) as the congestion continues the volume will usually slacken and the congestion moves to a stage of convergence and the phenomena shinks further to a centering of price about a pivot price on very little volume. Determine brackets on this centering and outside the the scalping noise range. Move to shorter bars for observation purposes.
Keep filling in your log with observations and make adjustments if necessary. As the volume stops declining be prepared to place your stops since they are adjusted and refined by now. as you see the bars begin to show less centering and the volume move up aftr it stopped declining it is about the time to consider using the phone and going through the paces. The later you get the orders in, the less time you are in suspended animation. What you are going to do is see the breakout look for brief formations, note each one and list a C&R possibility for the trailing stop that wasn't filled as the trend went the other way. if the BO is fast stay a formation behind with the trailing stop, if the BO is a drift (medium pace) stay two formations behind for the trailing stop, if the BO is slow (trend) then stay three formations behind.
The volume will continue to stay up and the formations (hitch, stall or retracement) will be repeated. As time passes hitches are replaced by stalls, stalls are replaced by retracements. Finally retracements and advances are equal and congestion again prevails. as you see the move forming a "knee or rolling over from its pace you begin the take each of the noted potential stops you have written down for C&R's getting closer together in value. Its time to tighen up on the stops if you see that going to the sidelines is appropriate. hat is going on is that the momentum has come to an end.
The market tells you what to do. ASM trades through everything perpetually and glides through these shorter momentum periods in a way that resembles trading secondary trends above sighted. Periods of short term momentum don't necessarily alternate in direction one after another. It is possible to see them as a series of steps where a series of short term momentums on a given fractal level form a flight of stairs on a longer position trading level of play (with an occassional short term reversal).
If you are on the short intraday fractal level of legs, drifts and trends, then you can do your C&R's as reversals as appropriate when there is a signal to do so. Double down the C&R trailing stop.'
Quote from nwbprop:
what really helped me a lot was finding the right pt 1. If you have pt 1 you can just follow along the sequence of a trend. If anything in the sequnece does not occur i take my exit and reverse. Pretty much i know what is suppost to happen next.If that doesnt happen i take my cue to exit and reverse.
Excellent post nwb.
I want to emphasize how important actually GRASPING this concept was to me. This is a straightforward version of Jack's "what wasn't that?" metaphor.
You "know" what's supposed to happen next from the sequences you laid out on the board. If it happens, you stay in; if it doesn't you exit or reverse.
Just my 2 cents.
Cheers,
vorzo
Quote from bubba7:
Follow magna's lead on the IT and the quarterly channel. we need to have this down cold by Labor Day.
I noticed that we are still in the IT channel and it looks like ccc. Also, On my 2 month graph it looks we are also coming to resistance of a trend made by 7/31, 8/05, and 8/13. Of course i am new to this longer frame stuff, so i might be wrong.
jc
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