that's an island top on SPX, let's see some real action like in February VIX at 50 please
The SPX has hit a cyclical top
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Don't know if top is in or not (who actually knows?), but November seems more likely the month for a drop if it happens.
4th quarter market performance history is generally bullish over the past 100 years. Can it go down ? Anything is possible but if you are a probability better you have to play the past. I'm thinking Jan -march 2019 3050-3190 will be a better short. Perfect short is 319 spy according to my chart
WE are certainly in the zone for a cyclical top on many metrics . Multi decade high company margins , price to sales ratios , earnings growth . WE have to trump tax sugar rush . EM selling off . Major indice making new ATH with no XLF follow through . Contagion risks worldwide . Also QT accelerating in October another issue , yield curve , rising inflation with tarrifs about to give that a kick and so on and so on . By their very nature tops are complacent , i mean what could go wrong 
I think fair chance OP is on the money myself , he should have taken the bet , easy layoff to make a winning bet either way but i suppose EGO is on the line .
I think fair chance OP is on the money myself , he should have taken the bet , easy layoff to make a winning bet either way but i suppose EGO is on the line .
"Now let’s look at corporate profits, which are likely to come under downward pressure. Falling corporate profits do not necessarily doom the equity bull market, at least in the short-run. The previous two bull markets went through two phases. In the first phase (1990-1997 and 2003-2005), earnings and equity prices rose together. In the second phase (1997-2000 and 2006-2007), earnings fell but equity prices rose anyway (Figure 4). Earnings essentially have plateaued since 2014, before being goosed up by the corporate tax cut. With the tax cut impact fully priced into the market, earnings may begin to decline in the second half of 2018. Even so, the actual peak in the equity market might not come until 2019, 2020 or later, depending on whether a recession materializes."
Three Critical Recession Warning Signs to Watch
https://www.cmegroup.com/education/...m_medium=email&utm_campaign=economic_research
Three Critical Recession Warning Signs to Watch
https://www.cmegroup.com/education/...m_medium=email&utm_campaign=economic_research
WE are certainly in the zone for a cyclical top on many metrics . Multi decade high company margins , price to sales ratios , earnings growth . WE have to trump tax sugar rush . EM selling off . Major indice making new ATH with no XLF follow through . Contagion risks worldwide . Also QT accelerating in October another issue , yield curve , rising inflation with tarrifs about to give that a kick and so on and so on . By their very nature tops are complacent , i mean what could go wrong
I think fair chance OP is on the money myself , he should have taken the bet , easy layoff to make a winning bet either way but i suppose EGO is on the line .
I buy the SPX diag and dozens of SPY diagonals every day. $60K worth yesterday alone. The guy didn't understand the difference between a digital and a touch wager. He didn't understand that I would not wager even money on a ***touch*** of 3020. Not a confidence issue--the digital is worth half of the touch. I would have happily wagered on 3020 O/U at expiration. It's obvious that you don't understand the difference either. It's not semantics.
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