The SPX has hit a cyclical top

[southall]

Help
I shorted 100 dec E's at 2888 when desertion said the top was in
What should I do now ?
?

Dont worry the OP said your short has impunity.

 

[volente_00]

Dont worry the OP said your short has impunity.

I swear surf must have hacked his account.

+39 of heat on this awesome top call

 

[jasonc]

It is amazing though that we are approaching 10 years without a bear market in the USA, you could be mid 30's, 10 years in the market and incredible performance based purely on being biased long and a little leverage or tech. Working at a financial company this does make you question back tests and historical performance a lot more since these slight biases cause amazing looking performance.

 

[destriero]

Surf had the balls to say 'no more new highs this year', while the OP is sticking his high prediction for the year behind the big number 3000, and also about 5% away from current levels which is quite a long way for the stock market to travel in 3 and half months any way.

lol and you can't read.

 

[Banjo]

Only read ET sporadically but I believe the OP's thesis has 15 months to play out.

 

[destriero]

I am in the process of buying the SPX dec18/mar19 2900P/3000P diagonals from $70 or better. I'll be back when I cover (or) the Dec18 short contracts go off the board:

Long SPX March 15, 2019 3000 puts
Short SPX December 21, 2018 2900 puts

1:1 ratio

volswap is 65bp

I've bought some for work last week. I'm going to start buying in earnest next week.

They're marked $6,850 mid per contract as I type this (individual market(s) shown in above pic).

The plan is to accumulate/DCA 100s of the diags for work, family and personal accounts. See you on the other side!

 

[destriero]

And yes, the 2900/3000 diagonal is short 27 delta per contract. F y'all until I get back with a >40% gain.

 

[jasonc]

And yes, the 2900/3000 diagonal is short 27 delta per contract. F y'all until I get back with a >40% gain.

Damn had enjoyed your comments, hate to see you leave for good

 

[Buy1Sell2]

We're done. We will not take out SPX 3020 on a daily closing basis in 2019. Every macro trend that I follow is softening and I expect to see flat GDP by Feb 2019 (post holiday hangover).

You can short with impunity.

SPX: 2888.8. Not to exceed 3020 (closing) any time between now and end of 2019. Likely not until after the 2020 election.

Certainly possible but I am staying long for now.

 

[volente_00]

Surf had the balls to say 'no more new highs this year', while the OP is sticking his high prediction for the year behind the big number 3000, and also about 5% away from current levels which is quite a long way for the stock market to travel in 3 and half months any way.

Quite a long way?

Market is up 1.8% in 3 trading days since this top was posted