The SPX has hit a cyclical top

[treeman]

Call them excuses if you want, I don't touch them. You can rest assured, I am long the market.

 

[destriero]

If by different, you mean more of the same, then yes (green numbers are P/E ratio):
View attachment 191553
Most times I think I'm the only one who does their homework. But that's good for me, and bad for everyone who drinks from the conventional wisdom fountain.

Dude, if that's your homework. lol.

 

[destriero]

Call them excuses if you want, I don't touch them. You can rest assured, I am long the market.

You can't bet on the outcome of four large caps? Bye, Felicia. #MoreExcuses

 

[treeman]

I'll consider making a bet that the SPX closes above 3020 within the next year.

 

[destriero]

I'll consider making a bet that the SPX closes above 3020 within the next year.

Name the odds and stakes.

 

[treeman]

Flat 10K? Unless you're dying to lay me odds.

 

[destriero]

Flat 10K? Unless you're dying to lay me odds.

What is flat $10K? Even money? Do you know how handicapping works?

 

[treeman]

Of course I do. Why would there be handicapping? It's one claim vs. the other.

 

[destriero]

Of course I do. Why would there be handicapping? It's one claim vs. the other.

Moneyness, moron. The difference between touch and expiration probability. More goes into it than logging into your powerful sim account.

 

[treeman]

I'm not sure why you're getting aggressive. I said I'd make the bet. I'm not clear why there needs to be a handicap on it. You're the one making the initial claim. It sounds like you are certain in the claim, and want me to handicap your claim too? Straight up - it breaks it or not on a closing basis. It doesn't have to be anything other than a friendly $10k bet.