The Spooky Echoes of '87

S

S2007S

The Spooky Echoes of '87
A famed Wall Street strategist says he's haunted by today's parallels to the bust 20 years ago, even knowing history is no guide.


Barton Biggs: Echoing the Crash of '87


Barton Biggs: Echoing the Crash of '87
A famed Wall Street strategist says he's haunted by today's parallels to the bust 20 years ago, even knowing history is no guide.

Internationalhttp://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/19650867/site/newsweek/
 
The past is no guide? Since when don't traders base future behavior on the success or failure of past behavior? Did I miss a memo?
 
Its just an article stating the similarities between 1987 and now. Too many think this market can keep running like it has been for the last 5 years. Eventually the bear does make its way to wall street, when its this good you have to question the market. There is always a top, back in 1999 everyone thought that the Dow was ready for 30,000, 40,000 even 100,000, everyone also knows what happened next. This is one of the longest stretches without a 10% correction, the further this market goes with out a correction the more significant it will be when it does happen. Right now there seems to be no risk, but that can change VERY quickly.
 
Markets are at their most alluring stage when they are also at their most dangerous stage and you are at your most complacent from too many easy profits.

Follow a web board all the way through they cycle and you will see when the wall of worry that applied all the way up crumbles literally overnight into euphoria and the end follows shortly.
 
Quote from Yisterwald:

The past is no guide? Since when don't traders base future behavior on the success or failure of past behavior? Did I miss a memo?
More...

You must have. He's a copy:

____________________________________________________
any time
Attention All Market Participants:
(or a pulse with $5,000)

There's no such thing as repetitive human behavior or market cycles. History never repeats itself. That's why they call it ....history.

This time it's different. Everyone is getting rich except YOU.

Don't let this opportunity pass you by! Open a brokerage account today and get the riches you deserve.

EM

____________________________________________________
 
1987? ... don't worry too much.

If you bought the DJIA Jan 1, 1987 and held it through Dec 31, 1987, would you be up or down?

Answer looks like: minimally up on price + a nice Dividend - you would have made money holding through the crash in 1987.
 

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Quote from Yisterwald:

The past is no guide? Since when don't traders base future behavior on the success or failure of past behavior? Did I miss a memo?
More...

The past is no guide when you have a sample size of "one" as in 1987. Thus those who say "no big deal."
 
Quote from S2007S:

Its just an article stating the similarities between 1987 and now. Too many think this market can keep running like it has been for the last 5 years. Eventually the bear does make its way to wall street, when its this good you have to question the market. There is always a top, back in 1999 everyone thought that the Dow was ready for 30,000, 40,000 even 100,000, everyone also knows what happened next. This is one of the longest stretches without a 10% correction, the further this market goes with out a correction the more significant it will be when it does happen. Right now there seems to be no risk, but that can change VERY quickly.
More...

Why is "a 10% correction" mean anything? We had a correction mid-May 2006, Feb 27, 2007. There is nothing special about any level. The market is only a compendium of the 30, 500, 5000 or whatever companies under it. The index sums them. Individual companies of the index go through much worse corrections every week. No big deal...

Nextly, this is nothing like 1987. 1987 came mostly as a result of huge interest rate moves. Take a look at the TBond during the 9 months before, and it becomes evident...
 
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