Okay I haven't posted on this journal for a while. Been trading small positions and am continuing to do so for now.
I have a journal I keep separately from this and it takes most of my time to keep updated so I end up skimping on this journal since it doesn't really benefit me much to post here.
Currently I am long in the Pound and Yen. To clarify, I am referring to my outlook on the actual currencies listed, not necessarily the pair. (ie being long the Yen would actually be short the USD/JPY). I entered the Pound long on Thursday evening and I just entered the Yen a few minutes ago. Not counting the Pound trade since it's easy to say I got long a few days ago. Words are cheap and easy...So I will focus on this in regards to moving forward.
I am bullish the Yen and the Pound right now. I think all European currencies are strong right now but the Euro and Swiss Franc have a higher risk associated with them since they have already made some strong up moves, it would take a lot more downside in these currencies before I changed my bullish outlook, and this can get expensive with this type of volatility.
Normally I would stick with the strongest markets, but with this recent volatility I feel most comfortable going long the Pound since it affords the lowest risk, or amount of downside potential before I change my bullish outlook. Also as a side note the Bullish Consensus places the EUR and CHF in the 90's area, which is severely overbought, whereas the GBP is only in the low 70's, meaning that there may still be room for the Pound to grow before becoming "overbought". I don't place too much weight in the Consensus for timing purposes, but rather use it as a compensating factor.
I think that there is a lot of upside room for the European currencies, but as mentioned earlier with the recent volatility who really knows what the hell could happen. The Fed and everyone else seems to keep wanting to intervene. Since I am not psychic, I am not going to guess what they will say or do next. All I can do is watch the momentum and the other factors I take into account and make an informed decision with emphasis on controlling my risk.