The silver trade - oh my aching head !!

countryBoy641

countryBoy641

To the chagrin of investors, swing traders, and shorter term folks,
Silver has turned into the doggie trade.
What's up with that?
I had a bunch of paper silver (PSLV).
Thought is looked a little weak, but I made some money,
sold all (and my GLD) by early July 2021.

The cash silver market still looks OK (maybe, no gaps there).
Paper silver (SLV) has gaps way lower, May 2020.
That may be causing the problem.

SLV_gaps.jpg


The only complaint on the cash market that I can see is a possible Elliott Wave count that is pulling that market lower.
EW counts are notoriously subjective and highly subject to failure.
I believe that EW counts are something that traders should only keep in the
bottom drawer, and only pull them out when nothing else explains it.
But I had noticed this possible count last spring, which is why I had exited all my paper silver last July.

Anyway, this is my current count on cash $Silver, $18.95 as the support.
I hope I am wrong.
But if it does get down there, it would be one heck of an entry point.


$Silver EW count.jpg
 
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countryBoy641 said:
To the chagrin of investors, swing traders, and shorter term folks,
Silver has turned into the doggie trade.
What's up with that?
I had a bunch of paper silver (PSLV).
Thought is looked a little weak, but I made some money,
sold all (and my GLD) by early July 2021.

The cash silver market still looks OK (maybe, no gaps there).
Paper silver (SLV) has gaps way lower, May 2020.
That may be causing the problem.

View attachment 274957

The only complaint on the cash market that I can see is a possible Elliott Wave count that is pulling that market lower.
EW counts are notoriously subjective and highly subject to failure.
I believe that EW counts are something that traders should only keep in the
bottom drawer, and only pull them out when nothing else explains it.
But I had noticed this possible count last spring, which is why I had exited all my paper silver last July.

Anyway, this is my current count on cash $Silver, $18.95 as the support.
I hope I am wrong.
But if it does get down there, it would be one heck of an entry point.


View attachment 274958
More...

In EW, Wave 3 cannot be the shortest of the 3 impulse waves.
 
Scataphagos said:
In EW, Wave 3 cannot be the shortest of the 3 impulse waves.
More...

OK, but back to the point that almost any TA person would agree with
"EW counts are notoriously subjective and highly subject to failure."
Elliott was probably onto something, but never finished it.
And I don't believe anybody else has, e.g. Robert Prechter.
If anyone had, EW would be the best TA tool available.
So, I see the "EW Rules" as more of suggestions than anything else.
... Keep it in the bottom drawer. o_O
 
Scataphagos said :
"If you replaced your"5" with the "3", and ..."

Right, that would be texbook EW.
But what has really changed since Ellliott departed is so very many parties are trying to move the market. Years ago, I knew a Ser 7 guy had some large positions in small stocks. He would try to move the stock at the close, get a print that he wanted.
Probably a common practice now.
That's why I'm not a fan of candlesticks - same concept.
And at a high level, I think that makes wave counting vastly more difficult.
As in the Feb high of $Silver, orchestrated by a group of collaborating youthful investors.

Thanks for your input!
 
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Better to not refer to something if you don't truly don't understand it. Wave 3 not 5 in Aug,'20. There needs to be divergence between price and EWOsillator for a wave 5 of 5 high impulsive or wave C of ABC corrective high to be confirmed. And same for bear market low move. ;):-
! SI.png
 
I'm also bearish (and short) silver at the moment. FWIW I've never seen much practical value in overly deterministic approaches like EW, or at a higher level things like K-waves and generation cycle theory. Lots of time wasted trying to curve-fit to an arbitrary model invented by some random dude, when you could be trying to understand the actually relevant factors of what's going on right in front of you.
 
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