It's what the mob has been told is "being smart".
The sign of the times
- Thread starter Pekelo
- Start date
It's what the mob has been told is "being smart".
timing IS everything, EVERYWHERE, not just in the markets. And that's something you'll never capture constantly long term. Has mostly to do with randomness and is considered just being lucky.
That is why God invented verticals....
Where can I learn more about and pray to these "verticals"?
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/verticalspread.asp
https://tickertape.tdameritrade.com...22046!b!!g!!&dclid=CJezo-Xn7-cCFUnYyAodzBYNDA
By selling vertical calls or puts, you don't have to be exactly right with your timing. Hell, if the stock/market doesn't move, you still make money.
So as an example, I was 3 days early with my top call. Had I just bought puts that expire let's say in 2 days, even though I would have been eventually right, because of the timing, I would have lost money. Now by selling vertical calls let's say 1 week to expiry, gives me a week for the market topping formation to play out.
And again, as long as the stock/market doesn't go outright against you, you can end up making money, because time is on your side. And as a last resort when the market does go against you, you can still try to leg out of the position, if you can time shorter time frames.
%% LOL;
I almost did number 9 years ago. But since my banker asked if I was going to invest it in the stock market , I said I may do that. And he said do not do that+ don't clear cut the banks timber land .OK Worked out well................................................................................I would never blame an uptrend/bull market on the FED, even though they can help
the more money you're supposed to make from decay the less you will be making from the underlying's direction (if at all)
when you are anticipating a big movement/reversal (calling a top) then your only strategy should have been exactly buying a put (which you disregard) or selling outright depending on your preferences on leverage and/or volatility (or whatever combo that is directional). Yes, you'd lose on time but gain on direction and vol.
Again, the more money you're supposed to make with time the less you will be making on direction. Why would you limit your gain with a vertical IF you anticipate a top and/or a big fall ?
Well, i guess the real answer is that you didn't exactly anticipate a reversal or you were too scared to put money behind that idea. So, you made what ? 20-30 points with your vertical instead of making 200-300 ?
I wonder if I should ask that guy who he feels now...? He was not very cocky though, so maybe I'll leave him be.
But I have a few cocky longs in my social circle who loves boasting about their stock market gains. I heard comments as late as early last week.
I'm silently enjoying things at this point, but think I'll need to make a comment eventually.
I was explaining how to play it when one isn't sure about the exact timing. Nobody said I didn't buy puts once the down move STARTED.
But why don't you try to predict the top of a 10 year long bull market and tell us how it goes? And don't forget to buy the puts while you are doing that!