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Best of luck
Best of luck
The Shorting of Frauds, Overhyped and Bankrupt Stocks Journal
- Thread starter Daal
- Start date
One quick tell you could use to spot future frauds are reverse splits.
Probably just the preferred holders locking in a profit.
Have you tested this, or is it just intuition? I'm not sure such an obvious thing would be predictive, surely no knowing fraudster would let the cat out of the bag like this?
http://brontecapital.blogspot.com.br/2012/08/focus-media-my-new-obsession.html
Agree with bronte here. FMCN is an IDEAL short, squeezes are capped by the $27 takeout price, likely price if the company is a fraud and deal falls part is lower than $5
I already own Jan 2013 puts, which is probably plenty of expiration for the deal to fall part(If it does). I shorted some more stock here at 24.95, might short more
Worst case it gets bought out at $27, a juiced up bid is unlikely
Agree with bronte here. FMCN is an IDEAL short, squeezes are capped by the $27 takeout price, likely price if the company is a fraud and deal falls part is lower than $5
I already own Jan 2013 puts, which is probably plenty of expiration for the deal to fall part(If it does). I shorted some more stock here at 24.95, might short more
Worst case it gets bought out at $27, a juiced up bid is unlikely
Key giveaway from FMCN is the fact that their PEG ratio is 0.4(0.43 at the takeout price)
Why would the management rush to sell out the company without shopping around first or wanting a bigger premium?If you have an awesome business you don't rush to sell just because some people are accusing you of cooking the books. This is specially true for a company with a strong and liquid(reported) balance sheet like FMCN. Possibilities:
-They know the game is up and now their only hope is to pull a FSIN, go private and hide all the fraud
-They think the business will be tougher going forward and their true PEG ratio is higher
I like the odds the stock is offering for the 1st possibility here, specially because its a china stock and on Jul the SEC started a investigation on EDU due its variable interest entities and FMCN uses them as well. Perhaps they are afraid they would be next
Why would the management rush to sell out the company without shopping around first or wanting a bigger premium?If you have an awesome business you don't rush to sell just because some people are accusing you of cooking the books. This is specially true for a company with a strong and liquid(reported) balance sheet like FMCN. Possibilities:
-They know the game is up and now their only hope is to pull a FSIN, go private and hide all the fraud
-They think the business will be tougher going forward and their true PEG ratio is higher
I like the odds the stock is offering for the 1st possibility here, specially because its a china stock and on Jul the SEC started a investigation on EDU due its variable interest entities and FMCN uses them as well. Perhaps they are afraid they would be next
http://www.bizjournals.com/dallas/b...says-hedge-funds-interested-in.html?ana=yfcpc
I remain short AAMRQ but I'm wondering if I should increase my shorts a lot. I just don't think this stock can survive whatever happens
I remain short AAMRQ but I'm wondering if I should increase my shorts a lot. I just don't think this stock can survive whatever happens
Like JP Morgan said: 'sell stock untill you can sleep at night'
Same thing the other way around
Same thing the other way around