Lol. Predicting a selloff is easy. Shows who's the amateur when they are easily impress by these sort things.If you predicted the BTC selloff 3 days before it happened. I need to get your number
The sell-off explained
- Thread starter Frederick Foresight
- Start date
well excuse you
Honestly man, the original thread post is pretty clear cut with explaining the reason behind the selloff.
...In highly complex systems, such as investing in the global markets, the creation of narrative fallacies becomes even more likely. The most poignant examples of narrative fallacy are often articulated by the 24/7 business news media, the CNBCs of the world. They are by their very nature constantly reacting to global market events and are required to come up with interpretations of events on the fly. Rarely are these interpretations founded on anything other than mental short cuts, but they share one attribute of all narrative fallacies, plausibility. These “plausible” explanations are then adopted by investors who watch CNBC as part of their process. (Incidentally, if anyone can find me a trading floor in America that does not tune into CNBC I would be shocked. This point seems to verify the broad spread and unknowing acceptance of narrative fallacy)...
https://app.hedgeye.com/insights/1609-eye-on-behavioral-finance-narrative-fallacy?type=research
Cool. You predicted it. And how much did you make predicting the sell-off (and not only reacting to it when it was underway)?
All these almost perfectly timed predictions...you must be crazy rich by now.
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Now you see guys this is the hard part actually, not the prediction itself. I don't trade bitcoin, I provide the insight for fun. By the way there is nothing wrong with reacting to it when it is under way, be it the market or cryptos...
I agree. As long as you have the latest TimeTravel 3000 model, it is easy peasy. If you don't have that, you can do the old fashioned way, predicting a top every other day for 6-12 months, and eventually you will be right.
But as FF pointed out it is playing it right what is hard, not predicting it.
Read through my posts on the WYNN thread if you want to see how you can be 100% right on the news drops, the timing, and their implication and still blow the trade (long Feb 16 $160 puts and short shares).
But if you can explain you can then be ready for the next one and hopefully ready to profit.
Of course why we cannot profit from predictions is we normally predict 20 sell offs and only 1 actually happens. I have been anticipating tops every week for all of 2017 and 2018.
