The S&P will top at 4540-4601

[Nine_Ender]

Market looks very resilient . 3 plunges down to the 4260-80 area and everyone bought hard . Were sitting at 4370 a mere 4% off ath’s . I have no idea where mkt goes nor does anyone else . But for 6 weeks of such negativity after 110% run we ain’t down shit .

Looks like the down side moves are short term traders putting pressure on the markets based on news ( sometimes very flimsy news ) and then the large buyers come in. Buyers are anticipating a strong finish to the year ( which occurs most years ). I can't see much down side because anyone with large pools of money isn't going to cash or bonds they are rotating into value.

One Cdn analyst that looks at price to book on the SPX said if this is like year 2000, SPX can go to roughly 5100 before it's 4 times book ( assuming earnings don't keep rising significantly ).

 

[SammyJ]

As i said none of us knows where we go . But we have some seriously negative things happening . Big inflation from Gas to food to cars is really digging in peoples pockets . Rates ticking up a bit.Stimulus gone and mortgage payments resuming for millions.Looks like earnings are topping out for the cycle in the next 2 quarters as demand flattens and wage and material pressures compress profit margins. Will this eventually hurt stocks? Nobody knows but so far no.

 

[KCalhoun]

I still stubbornly say major selloff is more likely than ath this year.

Inflation, supply chain disruption, China trade war, bad jobs report yesterday, covid, wage growth etc = much more drop in stocks likely.

But I'm daytrading a lot, not much swings, still in inverses but focused on daily runners like VYGR CIE OXY AMC MARA NIO etc

 

[Relentless]

... I still stubbornly say major selloff is more likely than ath this year...

I think there's a good chance you see both - and it could come in either order.

 

[piezoe]

Ineresting chart. I went back to look at the gains in the 2009-2015. From March 2009 up to the Greek debt crisis the SPY went up ~105% and then fell 22% and then from October 2011 up to the August 2015 Renminbi devaluation went up another 104%.

So far the March 2020 up to today SPY only went up 107% so looks like a major correction could be coming but I wouldn't hold my breath.

The most amazing thing is the QQQ went from $25 to $380 from November 2008 up to today's close -- 1423% gain (23.3% pa for 13 years).

Are you a chemist?

 

[Nine_Ender]

I still stubbornly say major selloff is more likely than ath this year.

Inflation, supply chain disruption, China trade war, bad jobs report yesterday, covid, wage growth etc = much more drop in stocks likely.

But I'm daytrading a lot, not much swings, still in inverses but focused on daily runners like VYGR CIE OXY AMC MARA NIO etc

You are again overstating the down side not one of those listed are a major catalyst of any significance right now. People may talk about them and financial media loves to speak to bears sure. Too many short term traders are overconfident about their ability to read longer trends yet fail to do the research to make those calls. No free lunch ever I invest research into aspects that have a payoff in a defined fashion that allow me to pounce if it occurs without overthinking it.

 

[Michael Clark]

We can't predict tops. We won't see the final top during our life.
S&P growth invisible.

 

[KCalhoun]

You are again overstating the down side not one of those listed are a major catalyst of any significance right now. People may talk about them and financial media loves to speak to bears sure. Too many short term traders are overconfident about their ability to read longer trends yet fail to do the research to make those calls. No free lunch ever I invest research into aspects that have a payoff in a defined fashion that allow me to pounce if it occurs without overthinking it.

Well said..... yet I'm curious to see what your response will be if/when the market sells off 5% or more this year?

 

[Nine_Ender]

Well said..... yet I'm curious to see what your response will be if/when the market sells off 5% or more this year?

Well, what I'd say to you is when US indexes dropped 5% in September, my energy holdings had a strong month and I made an 11% gain in my account through October 1. Almost nothing I own was really correlated with US indexes except a few legacy mining positions I like on a valuation basis. In fact, the entire TSX market outperformed the SPX in September ( -0.5% vs -5% ). There were days in September that you were talking about 5% gains in your triple short etfs that some of my energy stocks were up 10-15% unleveraged on the day.

My focus is on when the short term energy bull ends, and whether the limited strength in some gold/silver/copper stocks I own has any legs to it. My thesis is that October is a bad month to take on marginal plays but that might set up for a good November/December. If the SPX drops to 4000 area, I'd be looking for individual stocks that drop more then that and are bottom of the range perhaps 20-30% off 52 week highs. But I feel no compelling need to force that trade.

 

[KCalhoun]

Well, what I'd say to you is when US indexes dropped 5% in September, my energy holdings had a strong month and I made an 11% gain in my account through October 1. Almost nothing I own was really correlated with US indexes except a few legacy mining positions I like on a valuation basis. In fact, the entire TSX market outperformed the SPX in September ( -0.5% vs -5% ). There were days in September that you were talking about 5% gains in your triple short etfs that some of my energy stocks were up 10-15% unleveraged on the day.

My focus is on when the short term energy bull ends, and whether the limited strength in some gold/silver/copper stocks I own has any legs to it. My thesis is that October is a bad month to take on marginal plays but that might set up for a good November/December. If the SPX drops to 4000 area, I'd be looking for individual stocks that drop more then that and are bottom of the range perhaps 20-30% off 52 week highs. But I feel no compelling need to force that trade.

Very smart insights, and congrats re energy and other trades. I like OXY UCO for oil, FCX GDX metals, MARA BTBT btc, CCL AMC reopening, UVXY TZA inverses. Plus I'm in KOLD/short nat gas and YINN/long China

You have a well thought out trading plan approach, your thinking is sharp. I'm more impulsive and price action daytrading type, eg last week I was doing 40-102 daytrades/day. Both can work, just different styles.

Here's to making $