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The S&P will see 1000 before 1100
- Thread starter birdstone
- Start date
The top will come when least expected and well after the fact anyone calls it, the market in the state its in right now in my opinion is not healthy at all. These type of market moves happen in bear markets and when bubbles are forming.
The bulls can believe the price action in front of them but everyone knows that when this rally falls apart it will not be pretty.
The bulls can believe the price action in front of them but everyone knows that when this rally falls apart it will not be pretty.
Prudent Bear David Tice Battles Bull Run, Says Market Will Make New Lows
Posted Oct 14, 2009 10:30am EDT by Peter Gorenstein
Related: BEARX, ^GSPC, ^dji, SPY, DIA, FPGIX
While most of us were losing our fortunes (big or small) in 2008, David Tice was reaping the benefits. Tice saw his Federated Prudent Bear Fund nearly double from the time the stock market hit an all-time high in Oct. 2007 to when the panic set in after Lehmanââ¬â¢s collapse in Sept. 2008.
Today, he's as bearish as ever even after giving back more than 14% in the fund this year, (though, his Federated Prudent Global Income Fund is up 14%).
Not only does Tice think the market will retest the lows, he thinks the next crash will make the one we just lived through look minor. "We don't think this market will bottom until we get to book value," which is about "3100 on the Dow," he says (with a straight face.)
Why does he remain so negative on stocks?
As you can see in this accompanying clip, Tice believes many of the problems that caused last year's crisis still exist. His largest short position right now is in S&P 500 futures, reflecting that view.
So what about all the economists that say the worst is behind us? Tice says its best to ignore them: "Can you count on these same economists who didn't see any of this coming tell you we're going to come out of it?"
Posted Oct 14, 2009 10:30am EDT by Peter Gorenstein
Related: BEARX, ^GSPC, ^dji, SPY, DIA, FPGIX
While most of us were losing our fortunes (big or small) in 2008, David Tice was reaping the benefits. Tice saw his Federated Prudent Bear Fund nearly double from the time the stock market hit an all-time high in Oct. 2007 to when the panic set in after Lehmanââ¬â¢s collapse in Sept. 2008.
Today, he's as bearish as ever even after giving back more than 14% in the fund this year, (though, his Federated Prudent Global Income Fund is up 14%).
Not only does Tice think the market will retest the lows, he thinks the next crash will make the one we just lived through look minor. "We don't think this market will bottom until we get to book value," which is about "3100 on the Dow," he says (with a straight face.)
Why does he remain so negative on stocks?
As you can see in this accompanying clip, Tice believes many of the problems that caused last year's crisis still exist. His largest short position right now is in S&P 500 futures, reflecting that view.
So what about all the economists that say the worst is behind us? Tice says its best to ignore them: "Can you count on these same economists who didn't see any of this coming tell you we're going to come out of it?"
The top has been right in front of your eyes, if you knew where to look.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=5285&perpage=6&pagenumber=1324
10077 is the top--give or take a few points.
Adios amigos !
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=5285&perpage=6&pagenumber=1324
Quote from birdstone:
Ok, let's try this question again. You have been bearish. You say the market is going lower, and in a big way. How much does the YM have to rise before you throw in the towel on your bearish idea and position. There has to be a point where the market has risen too much for you and you get stopped out and you don't start a post the next day saying "get short" or "holding short".
I personally want to thank marketsmurfer for making this call. It was hard for me to extract the info from him, as the text shows, but I knew I was digging for gold and perservered. Marketsmurfers call of 10077 saved me a load of money. He had been so wrong every time he made a call, it stood to reason that the dow would reach 10077 and prove him wrong yet again. Btw--when smurf made this brilliant call on 8/31/09, the Dow had closed that day @ 9496.Quote from marketsurfer:
at 10077 cash DJIA.
10077 is the top--give or take a few points.
Adios amigos !