The S&P is looking very toppy

the FED may have no other choice than to get involved.

Anyone take a look at our budget deficit under George Bush lately? Can you say $477 million dollars? How do you think that this is gonna be financed, by increasing taxes in an election year? Think again.

Why do you think that the Treasury last Friday was floating around the idea of issuing a 20 Year piece of paper? Think market participants are just gonna sit around and buy all of that paper at low rates, with no fear that there is gonna be more SUPPLY coming down the pike? Think again.

It's only January . . . If you think that rates cannot move up significantly between now and November, then I suggest that you start selling some cheap puts on the Swissy and the Eurodollar and see how well you do.

:)
 
Quote from inandlong:

What has been the history of Fed activity during the presidential election years? Say for the last 10. I would think the Fed would try to stay out of it much like refs try to stay out of the last 2-3 minutes of a game. No one wants the outcome to be influenced by anything except the players.

Now about that oceanfront property... which way does it face?
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Hey Inandlong!

I completely agree with you. That's why it's out of the question as to whether there will be a rate increase before the election.

I do think they'll jack up the rate at least a point after the election.

Here's a scary thought though.. you know how much I like GWB and how much I wanted him to beat Gore. But, the more I listen to Kerry, the more I like. I actually am neutral on the next election.

The oceanfront property? You don't want it. It faces a brick wall.
 
Quote from waggie945:

the FED may have no other choice than to get involved.

Anyone take a look at our budget deficit under George Bush lately? Can you say $477 million dollars?
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I think you meant billion, instead of million.
 
Quote from waggie945:

What were you saying about the FED not raising rates during an Election Year?

:D
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Hey who cares ? ... Great short plays off the fed news .....
 
Quote from James Stock:

sour grapes. Nolan-vinny-sam has been humiliated in every way by me. Even his own friend(s) here have asked him to move on.

Nolan-vinny-sam would be the best candidate to take me up on my bet. No one has so far, and its a good thing for them.

And you're right, time will tell whether this latest trade is a good one.
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gotta give credit where it is due... james made an AOK call... whether or not he has any positions to th extent he claims... which is likely the case.

my 1150 Puts went up almost $10.50 today... didn't expect that until February. Bought some calls at day's end for a scalp if we get any decent rally by Friday, which I expect.

I think the past couple days are why people try to call tops... because when we sell off (in equities and/or indexes), they always seem faster and more furious! But as many know, there will always be other, better times to get into shorts if indeed a decent top is "confirmed" in place... and with much higher reward/risk. It's funny but if traders and investors and other "humans" did not use only their 'egos' to bottom-fish and/or try to call the exact tops in stocks, the market might sit still?! :p :p

ICe
:cool:
 
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