The S&P is looking very toppy

Quote from James Stock:

Richtrader--I think here's an opportunity to delete an inflammatory post.

Let me ask you a question, when you LIE and say that a "vast majority" preferred I go away in another thread, do you really expect to get credibility in any of your posts?

It was a minority that wanted me to leave, even with longshot's 10 extra votes magically overnight.

Let's talk trading, not monkey crap.
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So now you will show us how 52% is not a majority? :D ok I'm done here this is sad
 
From OPMTrader in the "Miscellaneous Futures Forum":


01-27-04 10:43 PM
Contrarian Catalysts
Contrarian Indicator Indeed.

"On a more serious point waggie945 has an excellent point. For any good trade you have to have a catalyst. A catalyst is so crucial. This is something I heard Steven A Cohen preach in an interview and it stuck with me. If you are just shorting because things are "too high" or buying because things are "too low" you are going to get killed. Try some of those strategies walking forward through the Nasdaq Bubble and you will see what I mean. Didn't 1998 look "too high" in many ways? Didn't the last part of 2000 look "too low"? Try riding through the following years waiting to be right. Its a sure way to insanity.

There are so many things out there that look too high (S&P, India, Gold) and too low (USD, Softs) but wait for a catalyst you really understand and your trades will be much better off."
 
Quote from waggie945:

From OPMTrader in the "Miscellaneous Futures Forum":


01-27-04 10:43 PM
Contrarian Catalysts
Contrarian Indicator Indeed.

"On a more serious point waggie945 has an excellent point. For any good trade you have to have a catalyst. A catalyst is so crucial. This is something I heard Steven A Cohen preach in an interview and it stuck with me. If you are just shorting because things are "too high" or buying because things are "too low" you are going to get killed. Try some of those strategies walking forward through the Nasdaq Bubble and you will see what I mean. Didn't 1998 look "too high" in many ways? Didn't the last part of 2000 look "too low"? Try riding through the following years waiting to be right. Its a sure way to insanity.


There are so many things out there that look too high (S&P, India, Gold) and too low (USD, Softs) but wait for a catalyst you really understand and your trades will be much better off."
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Waggie, I agree about the catalyst and it simply is not there. However, I think we will get higher rates at the end of the year and that in my opinion will be a catalyst for the market to begin a serious downward turn. But before that happens we could easily see the dow at 12k, the spoos at 1250 to 1300 and nasdaq 2300 to 2500. Of course if the dollar keeps getting weaker that could prove to be a catalyst but it needs to get a lot weaker.
 
Quote from Maverick74:

Waggie, I agree about the catalyst and it simply is not there. However, I think we will get higher rates at the end of the year and that in my opinion will be a catalyst for the market to begin a serious downward turn. But before that happens we could easily see the dow at 12k, the spoos at 1250 to 1300 and nasdaq 2300 to 2500. Of course if the dollar keeps getting weaker that could prove to be a catalyst but it needs to get a lot weaker.
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In a few weeks if this dollar bottom holds we'll have a catalyst for increased strength in the market; namely from european buyers
 
Quote from ig0r:

In a few weeks if this dollar bottom holds we'll have a catalyst for increased strength in the market; namely from european buyers
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Good point.

I also think Greenspan could say some nice things tomorrow that could also lead to a catalyst on the upside.
 
Quote from Maverick74:

Good point.

I also think Greenspan could say some nice things tomorrow that could also lead to a catalyst on the upside.
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Maverick,

lets make a gentlemans bet on wednesdays action. I predict we finish lower. Is it a bet?
 
If I throw a coin every night and make a market call for tomorrow I will be right 180 times a year.

It would of been a lot more informative to start "predicting" in a journal section.
 
Quote from James Stock:

Maverick,

lets make a gentlemans bet on wednesdays action. I predict we finish lower. Is it a bet?
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I would except I don't trust Greenspan as far as I can throw him. He could say anything. I might take you up on that bet on Thursday. Let's see what Alan has to say first.
 
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