The S&P has topped !!
- Thread starter rubberbird
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yeah, but will it get there by 1/31 ??
Simply amazing rubberbird, How is that evertime you call for a major selloff the market ALWAYS rallies 25 points ?
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_ES.H06.E&v=i
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_ES.H06.E&v=i
Quote from Learner:
Would it break 1296?let's see it next week.
Still think that 1296 in ES will be a major resistance. Stop will be around 1305. The last few day's bounce was more of a 50 dma technical bounce. I think it is good idea to fade any type of technical bounce/ sell-off at a longer-term resistance/ support. If the Fed leaves the interest rate unchanged and we see a rally, that'll be a fundamental rally which will likely take us higher.
This is not an actual trade but let's see how this will work at the end of expiration on Feb for SPY. (The prices are Friday's close.)
Buy 130 calls @ $.70 and buy 130 puts @ $1.90 for a total of $2.6.
Total potential loss(on 1 contract) = $260+ commissions.
Breakeven @ 127.4 or 132.6
That is just 1 piece of the puzzle though. The utilities and bonds have to be declining, investors' optimism has to be at a level where nobody believes that the markets can go lower. For me to be extremely bearish I need to see the bond-market make a significant low and the stock market make a significant high. Businessweek and other similar publications need to have a picture of the bull on the cover page. Currently, I think that we are seeing many of the above mentioned scenarios taking place, just waiting for Businessweek to write something like: How high will it go? or something similar.
So in the near future we might see a correction and off to new highs for 2006. If we do not see a correction soon, then it'll be a bubble in 2006 followed by a crash.
This is why I hang around this para-site "elite-trader". For people like double a. I already have a friend double d (it's a guy), not a double a, until now.
Your analysis is right on the mark. The only thing I can add is that we need to see the market making one of the top stories on the 6:30pm news (ET), for me to truly believe that we have made a significant high. I do think investor sentiment is already too bullish, but history shows it can persist this way.
I Would like to see bulls over 60%, bears around 20%, so we are close.
I'm beginning to see the truth in what you say about later this year..
I don't think there is any chance the Fed will leave rates unchanged, but if they signal that this is the last increase, the market will have a temporary moonshot. But I don't see them doing that either. The rate has to goto 4 3/4% at a minimum, and that will push the longer rates up too. The "soft" real estate market is already showing higher rates ahead.
Rubberbird, there looks to have been a change in your outlook short term. You may be now looking for a significant high before the turn down. Am I hearing you correctly? I know you had said no 1300 for 5 more months, so are you saying that the significant high will occur LH of 2006 ( I think it will occur earlier)
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