The S&P has topped !!

[just21]

I got a delta of 0.3876 for the 1300 jun calls from IB. How do you get 2.5%?

 

[doublea]

Quote from doublea:

Bird: I'll have to disagree with you on this one. I think we'll see 1300 in the 1st half of 2006. My long-term analysis shows that 2006 will end up being another classic bubble.

Anyway, I exited out of my shorts when the market was unable to follow through to the down side. Looking for another opportunity to go short. Might get that in a day or two!!!

Hey Bird: I ended up going long NQ @ 1694 today. Just had to follow the system. I think there is 40pts. upside in NQ and 20 in ES before we see any type of sell-off. If the indexes do not break today's low in the first half hour tomorrow I might add more to the longs.

 

[rubberbird]

Quote from just21:

I got a delta of 0.3876 for the 1300 jun calls from IB. How do you get 2.5%?

let's speak plain english here-- for everyones sake.

My question is:

OK, what your probability for the S&P NOT seeing 1300 thru 7/1/06?

 

[rubberbird]

Quote from doublea:

Hey Bird: I ended up going long NQ @ 1694 today. Just had to follow the system. I think there is 40pts. upside in NQ and 20 in ES before we see any type of sell-off. If the indexes do not break today's low in the first half hour tomorrow I might add more to the longs.

congrats on good work! I don't agree that there is 20 more points of upside on the S&P left in January (don't trade the es, but they're equivalent, I think).
I see more downside later this week and into next week.

 

[doublea]

Quote from rubberbird:

congrats on good work! I don't agree that there is 20 more points of upside on the S&P left in January (don't trade the es, but they're equivalent, I think).
I see more downside later this week and into next week.

Even if the ES goes up 20 pts, you'll still make money on your ES options as long as the strike < 1300. (I beleive you usually sell options).

One more question when you refer to S&P, do you mean the cash or futures?

 

[rubberbird]

Quote from doublea:

Even if the ES goes up 20 pts, you'll still make money on your ES options as long as the strike < 1300. (I beleive you usually sell options).

One more question when you refer to S&P, do you mean the cash or futures?

cash. I don't think the S&P cash can go up 20 pts in the next week.

I'd still like to hear from just21 and esmjb with reference to this question:

what's your probability for the S&P NOT seeing 1300 thru 7/1/06?

 

[esmjb]

look, i dont know what the probability is and i really dont care what it is. im just saying that it is not a 97.5% chance of trading 1300 by june. all i know is that it is lower and even if i was wrong i would only be off for 2.5% and thats fine with me versus maybe 20-30% upside. i'll take that risk/reward

 

[Buy1Sell2]

There was a strong bearish divergenc on both MACD and the RSI earlier this month. I went short at 1293.50 when I saw it and am holding that now. I suspect we will see 1250 and then a possible move down to test 1200. Equities will certainly be down this year or sideways at best. At some point higher commodity prices must way on equities. Commodities by the way are nowhere near their highs adjusted for inflation. I would imagine that gradually over he next several years we will see $150 oil and $5 gas. By the way, I believe $5 is where the public will finally reject gas as the fule of choice and will demand alternative fuels etc .

 

[Buy1Sell2]

weigh* divergence*

 

[fireflyx]

Wow, someone else who's actually bearish on the indices at the high scales.

I think you're right in saying the S&P will not see 1300 in Jan. My counts indicate a terminal above the 1275 level - but not just in the daily chart, in the weekly as well. IOW, the movement that began Aug. 2004 is over, done, stick a fork in it.

If some of the Elliotticians are right about the GSC the S/P might never see 1300 again, period. But my data on the GSC, even though it goes back to 1850, is sketchy and hard to count.

The BEAR MARKET HAS BEGUN as of Dow 11050!!!