The S&P has topped !!

[rubberbird]

say it ain't so! is ET actually warming up to the bird??

only 25% moron rating? it has always been in the 40-45% range.

what have I done to deserve this?

 

[Perseus]

I don't get it. Cramer foams at the mouth on TV and makes predictions for a living, and Cramerholic has his purty little lips glued to Cramer's sweaty hairy clammy buttocks. Rubberbird makes a prediction and gets slammed for it.

I am all for an honest recounting of past predictions and performance, but why the venom?

 

[PitchBlack]

Quote from rubberbird:

say it ain't so! is ET actually warming up to the bird??

only 25% moron rating? it has always been in the 40-45% range.

what have I done to deserve this?

You have done nothing.
Those who voted earlier already that you are a moron,won't vote again to say you are a moron. If they would, they would sound like morons.
You can compare it to someone who predicts the tops of the S&P every few weeks over and over again. Someone who would do that would sound like a moron too.


So in fact those who vote are the 55-60% that didn't say you were a moron. From these 55-60% 25% says now you are a moron. So in fact if you add all these votes up the score for moron is about 60% (45% from the first vote + 25% of 60% who voted now).

 

[rubberbird]

Quote from spike500:

You have done nothing.
Those who voted earlier already that you are a moron,won't vote again to say you are a moron. If they would, they would sound like morons.
You can compare it to someone who predicts the tops of the S&P every few weeks over and over again. Someone who would do that would sound like a moron too.


So in fact those who vote are the 55-60% that didn't say you were a moron. From these 55-60% 25% says now you are a moron. So in fact if you add all these votes up the score for moron is about 60% (45% from the first vote + 25% of 60% who voted now).

all this writing for me, lil spikey? I recommend electro-shock treatment, or a straight jacket for your deranged, depressed, stalker soul. please give it a try.

 

[rubberbird]

I really don't believe that the S&P can crack 1300 in January.

I believe the start of earnings season will send the market lower.

since the S&P has already risen 3%, giving back some of it is not unlikely.

the technical pattern reminds me of a bear flag.

I would be interested to hear the rationale for a higher S&P.

 

[doublea]

Quote from rubberbird:

........
I would be interested to hear the rationale for a higher S&P.

Irrational Exuberance!!!!!

 

[lilduckling]

Number one reason is that theres just too many things that should've already sent the mkts lower.... and mkts just keep on creeping higher. Sometimes mkts just look for any reason to drop.... and sometimes they look for any reason to go higher...regardless. Some of it is because of shorts covering, true but, weekly and monthly charts look bullish. I don't know the exact reason... i can only look at it from a macro point of view with a little bit of technicals.... and to me... it looks like a new high at the end of the month. Add any geo political factors into the mix... and it now favors an upside more so than a down side.... since we been getting bad news for a while now with no effect to the mkts. Even with this latest Iran and Venezuela problems... mkt ended with a healthy bottom tail on Friday. So any "new" events that end up being good news..... and boom.... mkt takes off. Case in point: OBL #2 guy being confirmed dead.... things like that..if it happens .. any little thing mkts can use as a reason.

Mkts have the technicals backing it up... doesn't need much.

 

[cnms2]

What technicals are you talking about?

Quote from lilduckling:
...Mkts have the technicals backing it up... doesn't need much. [/B]

 

[cnms2]

01/14/2006 11:46:11 EST
Investors May Be Misreading Fed Intentions
By ELLEN SIMON
AP Business Writer

 

[rubberbird]

Quote from cnms2:

01/14/2006 11:46:11 EST
Investors May Be Misreading Fed Intentions
By ELLEN SIMON
AP Business Writer

thanks for the article. I happen to agree with every word. The Fed is raising rates to combat inflation. Right now, inflation is not under control. Just look at commodity prices (ie CRB index) and metal prices. They are out of control.

The Fed will keep raising rates until inflationary pressure subside. Given the fast rising commodity prices, the Fed's work is not close to done. The markets will get a shock when they get a whiff of the next set of Fed minutes.