The S&P has topped !

[trefoil]

Quote from formal gold:

Yes sir, i do understand. but there's abit more to it than just simple probability analysis.

Take a horse. His first few races suck, and then he runs a monster race. In his next race, I along with many other people, would weight his last race as more important than his first few bad ones.

There is no such thing in the markets. Markets aren't horses: they don't learn in the same way a horse does. And they certainly don't learn the way a jockey might, remembering that in your example if the same jockey is riding that horse in the next race that would make quite a difference to the betting.
I've tried using EMA's for instance so many times it's not funny. I have never found that they were any better than SMA's at doing pretty much anything that SMA's can do, and they can't do anything that an SMA can't do.
So weighting the last instance of something doesn't work in the markets, in my experience.

That's only number one.
Number two, you'd be going against an established uptrend - on the daily charts, just to be clear. Countertrend trading, as someone very wise pointed out around here a while back, is like selling options - limited upside, huge potential downside.

I guess that covers it. I have some real work I need to be doing, I think.

 

[tenthousandmen]

Quote from formal gold:My stop? Not the way I trade.

LOL






(Best case scenario, you're misusing the word "trade".)

 

[nonlinear5]

Quote from Nine_Ender:

Just for illustration purposes, please list the lows for SPX for 2009, 2010, and 2011. Note the trend.

The 3-year trend is up, the 12-year trend is down. So, whether we are in a bull market or a bear market depends on the time frame. It's very simple.

 

[formal gold]

Quote from tenthousandmen:

LOL

(Best case scenario, you're misusing the word "trade".)

Ugh.

I forgot the intelligence level i'm dealing with. my apologies.

The moderator asked me if i had a stop on the S&P index as if i were trading es or S&P futures, and hence my response should have been, "I don't trade those, that's not the way i trade."

Of course I have stops on everything i trade, i just don't trade those vehicles, hence i can't give an exact figure on the S&P like he asked.

I did say, if the S&P rises above 1300, and stays there by the end of january, then i'm wrong.

Is that better for you sir?

 

[formal gold]

Quote from trefoil:

That's only number one.
Number two, you'd be going against an established uptrend - on the daily charts, just to be clear. Countertrend trading, as someone very wise pointed out around here a while back, is like selling options - limited upside, huge potential downside.

Good answer.

For writing this, i want you to be the first one to congratulate me when you find out how right I am going to be.

 

[trefoil]

Sure. Doesn't mean you didn't just get lucky. Remember, that was the first thing Napoleon asked about his new officers. Luck is mostly a ho, but occasionally, very occasionally, she can be a lady. Or fool you into thinking she's one.

 

[formal gold]

Quote from trefoil:

Sure. Doesn't mean you didn't just get lucky.

let me see if i understand you correctly. Though this has not yet been resolved, you already are saying if i'm right, it'll be luck? And if i'm wrong, it's because i don't understand going with the trend and risk/reward?

sounds like you're saying i'm either lucky or stupid. So there's no chance of maybe me being smart?

LOL!! you made my night!!

 

[the1]

The direction of the market is decidedly up. There is only one position to be in and that's long.

Quote from formal gold:

Thank you for the question.

My position is what I stated. unless I misunderstand your question.

My stop? Not the way I trade. but I will consider myself wrong if the S&P goes over 1300 and stays there thru the end of January.

Target? much lower, but let's start with 1250 and when it hits there, i'll have a new target.

 

[taoistmon]

hedge funds and successful traders are really destroying the markets.

 

[trefoil]

Quote from formal gold:

let me see if i understand you correctly. Though this has not yet been resolved, you already are saying if i'm right, it'll be luck? And if i'm wrong, it's because i don't understand going with the trend and risk/reward?

sounds like you're saying i'm either lucky or stupid. So there's no chance of maybe me being smart?

LOL!! you made my night!!

By definition you haven't, for instance, run a Kelly's Risk of Ruin calculation on your system, such as it may be. You therefore have no idea whether or not over any number of iterations it has a better than even chance of putting you in an unheated cardboard box rather than a yacht in the Mediterranean with some babes serving you something on ice to keep you cool during those long summer days.
We know this because you said you don't have a stop, which I don't consider a showstopper, as long as you use options to hedge, which I think is infinitely better than a stop if you're holding period is greater than a day. Options would still give you a defined loss if you're wrong and therefore allow you to use the output of the Kelly formula, with some fudge factor for the possibility of insufficient data. But you haven't mentioned options either. So given that and your rather youngish attitude, I'd say I have the odds on my side that you've never done the calculation and don't know whether you're betting an amount equal to the amount that would keep you in this game and annoying the rest of us for an indefinite amount of time.
Just a long way of saying that yes, you have no bananas. One way or the other, you and your money will soon part ways.