The S&P has topped !

[Locutus]

Quote from denner:

How about a small business that is faced with the headwinds of all these massive price spikes in energies and commodities? Nobody can reasonably forecast 2-3 years out any longer. Oil to 150 back to 38 back to 100, all in a 3 year span. This is the kind of stuff that permanently destroys an economy, no matter what academic arguments people make about the efficacy of QE and other central planning methods.

Yes I agree with that. Let's also not forget ridiculous FX volatility.

 

[fly down]

Quote from fly down:

sing so where is the approx top according to you?

Quote from Tsing Tao:

ive said all along the top is somewhere around when the fed stops with QE or when the market begins to price in the end of QE. not before.

sing I looked at the calender and it's 2/22/2011 today. But here you are so sure nothing happens to "end of QE..not before".

I siad to you before, you don't trade stocks, so you really should not have had your hoofprints all over this thread. But do what you must.

 

[fly down]

Quote from Locutus:

BTFD and enjoy the rip you noobs. I'm converted!

Quote from Tsing Tao:

welcome aboard the money train!

close green today. hell, at this pace we might be green by noon.

hmm. I suppose you really do get what you pay for

 

[bone]

To call a top, technical price action verification is required. And that means taking out the trendline channel we have been in. And that has not happened yet. When that happens, I will get short. But there is no legitimate technical price action evidence that a top has been put in.

 

[david666]

Quote from Locutus:

Uhm. You can't really have stagflation if you have margin squeeze especially if prices of real assets are declining.

There really is (will be) no inflation unless Ben prints a lot more. All the printing being done now is really just compensating for whatever is lost in consumer BKs and what was lost b4 in corporate and bank failures.

Despite being bearish I'm not really opposed to QE in the sense that I would've done the same thing. I'm just bearish on the world/economy, has nothing to do with money printing.

By the way, this thing is really starting to come off now. -2.2% in a day, who would've guessed.

thats so wrong on so many levels. Just compensating for whatever is lost in consumer bks? you got banks like BOA sitting on over 130 billion dollars cash. When they start lending that money out everyone will be fucked. Take into account how money travels in the banking system the end affect could be ten fold, so that will add over a trillion dollars to the economy. Thats what will start the inflation spiral in my opinion. Right not banks are not lending as much as they were (not even close) its a liquidity trap. When that ends inflation will happen. This whole "printing money right now wont lead to inflation because its just compensating" is bullshit.

 

[fly down]

Quote from bone:

To call a top, technical price action verification is required. And that means taking out the trendline channel we have been in. And that has not happened yet.

actually bone the S&P won't see 1344.1 for a long, long time. and to me that's a top.

but you don't care as long as you get in your plug. why don't you start your own thread? no advertising on this thread ok.

 

[Locutus]

Quote from david666:

thats so wrong on so many levels. Just compensating for whatever is lost in consumer bks? you got banks like BOA sitting on over 130 billion dollars cash. When they start lending that money out everyone will be fucked. Take into account how money travels in the banking system the end affect could be ten fold, so that will add over a trillion dollars to the economy. Thats what will start the inflation spiral in my opinion. Right not banks are not lending as much as they were (not even close) its a liquidity trap. When that ends inflation will happen. This whole "printing money right now wont lead to inflation because its just compensating" is bullshit.

Banks like BOA are going to have to get their asset ratio up under Basel III, I wouldn't worry too much.

 

[david666]

Quote from Locutus:

Banks like BOA are going to have to get their asset ratio up under Basel III, I wouldn't worry too much.

actually thats not entirely true, the riskier the asset the more the banks have to hold in liquid instruments or cash however if its very low risk, the requirements are very low. I.e. if BOA gets a lot of AA grade investments they could leverage them a lot. Once they resecurtize the toxic assets and start holding a lot of risk free grade investments, Basel III is out the window.

edit: lets not forget that the subprime debts were rated AAA, so there are always loopholes

 

[krazykarl]

Quote from fly down:

actually bone the S&P won't see 1344.1 for a long, long time. and to me that's a top.

but you don't care as long as you get in your plug. why don't you start your own thread? no advertising on this thread ok.

because you have been so correct up to this point....

 

[jalee25]

has heard trying and calling market tops & bottoms is a fools game...

:eek: