The S&P has topped !

[Tsing Tao]

Quote from Locutus:

lol no. I did consider it for a second but the thought was put out of my mind rather quickly when the CAC40 did not manage to even break the DH (which was pretty much the open) and didn't break into the gap.

I'm mostly pissed off I too passive to short the fucker at the point I posted this afternoon.

Going long might be a good idea tomorrow-ish or maybe next week, but that really depends on how many dip buyers are to be had down below. I wouldn't touch this until I see it respecting some support levels.

given that every single drop since march 2009 was nothing more than a buying opportunity, there's no shame in not wanting to go short for longer than a day. while today's drop is the biggest in 3 (or 4?) months, my bet is that it's another BTFD situation.

right now, i'm just in metals.

 

[Jackie Treehorn]

Super fucking annoyed i didnt fade that pop...



Didn't have it in me... ill usually jump in but the last pop weeks back really shook me..

 

[kashirin]

Quote from Tsing Tao:

given that every single drop since march 2009 was nothing more than a buying opportunity, there's no shame in not wanting to go short for longer than a day. while today's drop is the biggest in 3 (or 4?) months, my bet is that it's another BTFD situation.

right now, i'm just in metals.

this time is different! lol

Market slowly realizes money printing is a road to nowhere. Margins will be squeezed like crazy

Stagflation baby, P/E compression to single digits

 

[ElCubano]

Quote from Tsing Tao:

given that every single drop since march 2009 was nothing more than a buying opportunity, there's no shame in not wanting to go short for longer than a day. while today's drop is the biggest in 3 (or 4?) months, my bet is that it's another BTFD situation.

right now, i'm just in metals.

it's more like "buh bye dip"...

 

[atticus]

Two weeks to rally from 1310 to 1343... and 24 hours to lose it all. G*d, I love it so!

LIMIT DOWN!

 

[Tsing Tao]

Quote from atticus:

Two weeks to rally from 1310 to 1343... and 24 hours to lose it all. G*d, I love it so!

LIMIT DOWN!

isnt that pretty much how it always goes, though? fear is 10x the velocity of greed.

 

[Locutus]

Quote from kashirin:

this time is different! lol

Market slowly realizes money printing is a road to nowhere. Margins will be squeezed like crazy

Stagflation baby, P/E compression to single digits

Uhm. You can't really have stagflation if you have margin squeeze especially if prices of real assets are declining.

There really is (will be) no inflation unless Ben prints a lot more. All the printing being done now is really just compensating for whatever is lost in consumer BKs and what was lost b4 in corporate and bank failures.

Despite being bearish I'm not really opposed to QE in the sense that I would've done the same thing. I'm just bearish on the world/economy, has nothing to do with money printing.

By the way, this thing is really starting to come off now. -2.2% in a day, who would've guessed.

 

[denner]

Quote from atticus:

Two weeks to rally from 1310 to 1343... and 24 hours to lose it all. G*d, I love it so!

LIMIT DOWN!

Very reminiscent of 2006-08...the bulls wax poetic about following the trend, ostracizing anybody who was bearish and then all it took was one or two days to shut them up. A few days later the market would grind higher and take out the highs and the back and forth verbal sparring ensued.

Except this time around, the bullshit levitating this market is infinitely more heavy handed. Will be interesting to see where this s&p trades after the third bubble/bust collapse in a decade. I wouldn't rule out sub 500.

 

[denner]

Quote from Locutus:

Uhm. You can't really have stagflation if you have margin squeeze especially if prices of real assets are declining.

There really is (will be) no inflation unless Ben prints a lot more. All the printing being done now is really just compensating for whatever is lost in consumer BKs and what was lost b4 in corporate and bank failures.

Despite being bearish I'm not really opposed to QE in the sense that I would've done the same thing. I'm just bearish on the world/economy, has nothing to do with money printing.

By the way, this thing is really starting to come off now. -2.2% in a day, who would've guessed.

You can have stagflation for other reasons. For instance, where the private sector loses its pricing power, the government can step in and with brute force increase the cost of living while there is little to no growth.

How about a small business that is faced with the headwinds of all these massive price spikes in energies and commodities? Nobody can reasonably forecast 2-3 years out any longer. Oil to 150 back to 38 back to 100, all in a 3 year span. This is the kind of stuff that permanently destroys an economy, no matter what academic arguments people make about the efficacy of QE and other central planning methods.

 

[Tsing Tao]

Quote from denner:


How about a small business that is faced with the headwinds of all these massive price spikes in energies and commodities? Nobody can reasonably forecast 2-3 years out any longer. Oil to 150 back to 38 back to 100, all in a 3 year span. This is the kind of stuff that permanently destroys an economy, no matter what academic arguments people make about the efficacy of QE and other central planning methods.

you are spot on. and it isnt just small businesses, either. the company i work for has 20+ thousand people and in 2008 we took a huge profit hit because of inflation costs to the business. in the spring of 2008 (when we had to make the forecasts for 2009) we forecast 2008 type inflation. well we didnt get it. as such we had a huge profit gain (cogs is a big portion of our p+l) and we all got big bonuses. so in 2009 spring we forecasted similar inflation and 2010 we were off somewhat. in 2011, we're off big time thus far. it's feast/famine.