Nice call
Hope you made some nice $$$ from it.
The S&P has topped !
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Nice call
Hope you made some nice $$$ from it.
More free money coming folks 
Go Long!!!
NEW YORK -- The Federal Reserve Bank of New York said Thursday it plans to purchase about $97 billion in Treasury debt in the next month, continuing its policy of buying bonds to keep interest rates low and aid the economy's recovery. The purchases also include $17 billion of reinvestments of cash from the Fed's maturing mortgage-related holdings into Treasury securities. The Fed delineated 18 open market operations through March 9. The Fed has purchased about $397 billion in U.S. debt since August, when the mortgage reinvestment plan began, according to Morgan Stanley.
Go Long!!!
NEW YORK -- The Federal Reserve Bank of New York said Thursday it plans to purchase about $97 billion in Treasury debt in the next month, continuing its policy of buying bonds to keep interest rates low and aid the economy's recovery. The purchases also include $17 billion of reinvestments of cash from the Fed's maturing mortgage-related holdings into Treasury securities. The Fed delineated 18 open market operations through March 9. The Fed has purchased about $397 billion in U.S. debt since August, when the mortgage reinvestment plan began, according to Morgan Stanley.
"The market won't sell off until it becomes obvious what kind of deep trouble the Chinese bubble(s), US debt levels and a few other issues are going to cause. Timing when it will become obvious it really difficult as it may require some sort of external shock to remove all doubt, however you may want to start trying to sell highs around here."
Then join the other market timers, you're right and the market is wrong. It's obvious to you, but the market isn't playing along. Picking highs in a bull market without technical price action confirmation is an amateur pipe-dream mistake and crap risk/reward. Sell "highs" and buy them back higher. Start trying to sell "highs" ?
Then join the other market timers, you're right and the market is wrong. It's obvious to you, but the market isn't playing along. Picking highs in a bull market without technical price action confirmation is an amateur pipe-dream mistake and crap risk/reward. Sell "highs" and buy them back higher. Start trying to sell "highs" ?
I trade mainly the CAC40 intraday, have a look and tell me that is not technical weakening. Also the ES which I watch every so often has managed to make a lower DL for the previous day for the past three consecutive days and a lower DH for the past two unless we magically rally more than five points into the close.
If that's not "technical weakening" I don't know what qualifies (unless you want to catch the tail end of a move instead of the potential start of one).
The market isn't "wrong", it's just really slow, to the benefit of large institutional positions that need to turn paper profits into cash profits.
Also, until we reach new ATHs this is as much a real "bull market" as the 2004-2007 market was.
"Also, until we reach new ATHs this is as much a real "bull market" as the 2004-2007 market was."
And like timing a high in those markets without technical confirmation, you would have run out of capital long before the market turned your way.
If you think the S&P is at a high right here right now, then please by all means please provide a legitimate technical justification based upon price action.
And like timing a high in those markets without technical confirmation, you would have run out of capital long before the market turned your way.
If you think the S&P is at a high right here right now, then please by all means please provide a legitimate technical justification based upon price action.
Short-term technical analysis for CAC40: http://www.sierrachart.com/userimages/upload_2/1297369057815.png
The trend is still up and the major uptrend line did hold (and it was fairly obvious it would) but if I see a reversal at either of these lines (again) then that will probably be too much for the market to handle and it might move down to test one of the lower longer term support levels.
Obviously you can make a very easy argument also that the momentum is still bullish and I don't exclude the possibility that it will break these resistances, however combining technical with fundamental with some relatively deep knowledge on institutional and retail trader capital allocation (both all-in on the long side, much more so than at any point during the past 5 years) I see the downside potential reward as very great here and the upside risk minimal. It will be fairly obvious quickly whether it wants to reverse or go up further once it gets to those levels.
Yesterday's breakdown was also quite significant and confirmed my perception that rally since 7/2 was actually a distribution. Of course there are still a bunch of dip buyers, who would've guessed right?
Also I know this thread isn't about the CAC40, but since Euro and US equity markets move mostly aligned the S&P probably will go down along, although perhaps not as violently. It's always better to short the weaker brothers than the really strong stuff (although the CAC40 has been outperforming the S&P the past two or three weeks)
The trend is still up and the major uptrend line did hold (and it was fairly obvious it would) but if I see a reversal at either of these lines (again) then that will probably be too much for the market to handle and it might move down to test one of the lower longer term support levels.
Obviously you can make a very easy argument also that the momentum is still bullish and I don't exclude the possibility that it will break these resistances, however combining technical with fundamental with some relatively deep knowledge on institutional and retail trader capital allocation (both all-in on the long side, much more so than at any point during the past 5 years) I see the downside potential reward as very great here and the upside risk minimal. It will be fairly obvious quickly whether it wants to reverse or go up further once it gets to those levels.
Yesterday's breakdown was also quite significant and confirmed my perception that rally since 7/2 was actually a distribution. Of course there are still a bunch of dip buyers, who would've guessed right?
Also I know this thread isn't about the CAC40, but since Euro and US equity markets move mostly aligned the S&P probably will go down along, although perhaps not as violently. It's always better to short the weaker brothers than the really strong stuff (although the CAC40 has been outperforming the S&P the past two or three weeks)
You're right, I also look at these but as this thread is about timing a top to the second, I figured I'd use the 5 minutes.
I'm looking for the CAC40 to break down into a sideways longer term trend. I'm expecting it to struggle with and eventually break down from its range extension of the uptrend channel. If it doesn't do that I'll need a new plan but for now it's behaving more or less as I would expect.
http://www.sierrachart.com/userimages/upload_2/1297370140996.png