The S&P has topped !

[Tsing Tao]

Quote from Locutus:

You should be nicer to your beary friends here at this forum. After all it's thanks to people like me and the OP that the market can still rise Without any bears any market will stall or decline.

no, it'll still rise. it's not due to you or the op, it's due to the fed. as i've been saying all along. this isn't a bull market based on any fundamental shred of sanity - despite the posters who come here yapping about how utilization is getting better, or unemployment is improving or whatever technical hilarity they want to throw out.

it is a market being pumped up by massive injections of liquidity with the sole purpose of creating rising asset prices in all asset classes. period. you can either take part in that, or be run over by the train.

 

[Locutus]

Quote from Tsing Tao:

no, it'll still rise. it's not due to you or the op, it's due to the fed. as i've been saying all along. this isn't a bull market based on any fundamental shred of sanity - despite the posters who come here yapping about how utilization is getting better, or unemployment is improving or whatever technical hilarity they want to throw out.

it is a market being pumped up by massive injections of liquidity with the sole purpose of creating rising asset prices in all asset classes. period. you can either take part in that, or be run over by the train.

Can you count? Market cap went up more than 1 trillion in the US, QE2 was 600 billion, a lot of which probably went towards EM. Stupid retail guys who are lured in by the "risk free money because the FED is buying it all, NOTHING CAN GO WRONG!!" is who are buying this market.

Just you wait a few more weeks or months at most

 

[Locutus]

Quote from tivthetrader:

You know what- its almost fruitless to analyze this kind of market using our conventional methods of the last 20 years. The lack of major players, the government manipulation has totally changed the game. One of my best signals in the past was when Prudential would start buying big late in a move. They were one of the best bet againsts in the game. But sadly, they aren't playing anymore, or at least not noticeably. Nor are many others who at least gave the game some balance. Now, if Goldman and Morgan are buying at the same time, and a couple of the big hedge funds are going that way, good luck being short, even when every indicator, piece of news, and logic would normally dictate that short should be the right side. Even this morning, I was going to comment that the market had a chance of selling off because the ppt wasn't working on a fed holiday, but magically, exactly at 930 this morning, the futures bounced off the low of 1282.75 and just picked up 3 points on nothing. The guy who is posting his astrological thread is just as valid as anything else. For me, I will continue to hedge off selling options against futures and just continue to play this like a bookie and not get involved in trying to figure out which way its going, because after 250 s&p points in a few months without any meaningful pullback in between, something isn't kosher- real people take profits after such a move, robots and sovereign states with an agenda don't.

It's funny you should say that. Here's a few common wisdoms I would apply to this situation:
A) If a lie seems too big to cover up, it probably is a crackpot theory (i.e. massive stock market manipulation)
B) Market manipulation never works in the long run (as long as there is a bid and an ask anyway) and a market always goes back to value over the long run
C) Little traders/Retail/Buy&Hold often cut losses and never take profits
D) Follow teh smart money (not in stocks according to you, but how would you know Goldman's equity weight?)

Furthermore, there obviously is no meaningful selling pressure in the market because many large traders are on the sidelines or short (COT). The volume is too light for most players to add to their short position without killing the rally and setting off a selling gets more selling move to the downside.

This rally isn't the FED or manipulation. It's the uninformed who think it's manipulation and buying it up on the idea that if uncle sam says it's ok, then it's ok... That's my theory.

Edit: And my most favorite rule: Common wisdom/consensus is (almost) always wrong when it comes to finance. Who would argue that common wisdom is that "it's the FED!".

 

[Tsing Tao]

Quote from Locutus:

Can you count? Market cap went up more than 1 trillion in the US, QE2 was 600 billion, a lot of which probably went towards EM. Stupid retail guys who are lured in by the "risk free money because the FED is buying it all, NOTHING CAN GO WRONG!!" is who are buying this market.

Just you wait a few more weeks or months at most

i can count, yes. in my counting, i don't just add QE2, I add QE1 (what was it, 1.2T?), QE1 - lite (which is going on simultaneously to QE2 to the tune of another 180B) and the commissions being fed to the PDs from the ongoing purchases and monetization (approximately 5B a month for the last year and a half).

let me know if you'd like to recalculate your figures.

 

[Locutus]

Quote from Tsing Tao:

i can count, yes. in my counting, i don't just add QE2, I add QE1 (what was it, 1.2T?), QE1 - lite (which is going on simultaneously to QE2 to the tune of another 180B) and the commissions being fed to the PDs from the ongoing purchases and monetization (approximately 5B a month for the last year and a half).

let me know if you'd like to recalculate your figures.

The 1T increase mentioned is since the *announcement* of QE2.

No sum is going to come up with the market cap increase and the multiplier certainly isn't more than 1.4 so will come up short for pure monetary stimulus. Lite and the PD commissions are a drop in the bucket. Details like that are unimportant from a macro view.

I'm not arguing that QE2 is not raising stock market prices, by the way, I'm saying a good portion (possibly the majority) of the raise is not attributable to QE2.

 

[Tsing Tao]

Quote from Locutus:

The 1T increase mentioned is since the *announcement* of QE2.

No sum is going to come up with the market cap increase and the multiplier certainly isn't more than 1.4 so will come up short for pure monetary stimulus. Lite and the PD commissions are a drop in the bucket. Details like that are unimportant from a macro view.

I'm not arguing that QE2 is not raising stock market prices, by the way, I'm saying a good portion (possibly the majority) of the raise is not attributable to QE2.

alright, we'll have to agree to disagree.

incidentally, i agree with your take that this will end poorly. the $1T question is...when? that is the question the OP in this thread has gotten wrong over and over and over again.

 

[tivthetrader]

If you don't think that the goverment intervention in making bonds unattractive, crashing the dollar, and intentionally targeting the stock market to rise, is not manipulation and not responsible for the majority of this rise, then I dont know what you are looking at. This is methadone for the public, because the down from the heroin addiction this country was on would be too hard to take, and its basically devised to avoid civil unrest.

Can prices continue to rise in that environment? Of course. When the fix is in, anything can happen. Will their be more dire consequences down the road. Perhaps, but what usually happens is that there is a seachange in the world which makes it all go away anyway, and thats what bernake and crew are banking on.

 

[S2007S]

I thought there was a computer glitch on the nasdaq futures this morning, read the news out of apple and said that is no glitch thats actually the nasdaq selling off. Anyway I am sure there are no worries, by the time Tuesday morning rolls around the futures will be back to normal. The SPX looks to be holding on quite strong compared to the nasdaq, but I am sure they will turn the SPX futures green helping the nasdaq turn nearly unchanged by tomorrows opening.
Remember aapl makes up 20% of the ndx 100!!!!



S&P FUT
1285.5 -3.9 -0.30%
DOW FUT
11712.0 -13.0 -0.11%
NAS FUT
2291.75 -28.25 -1.22%
OIL
91.04 -0.5 -0.55%

 

[tivthetrader]

The last time Jobs had to take a leave aapl was trading at 85, and went down to 78 on the news. Then the stock had it unrelenting move to its current level.

I saw Steve Jobs last week on tv. Unfortunately, as I have lost my mother, two aunts, anuncle and a cousin to pancreatic cancer, I am too well versed in it. He didn't look well and todays announcement wasn't a shock. He is one of the true innovative geniuses of our time and I hope he has a swift recovery.

I don't even want to discuss the effect on the stock price or the market as aapl is such a large component of the nas and sizeable in the s&p, as it would be more than crass, but it has to have an effect and has to be taken into consideration in setting up a position.

Best wishes Steve Jobs.

 

[Locutus]

Quote from Tsing Tao:

alright, we'll have to agree to disagree.

incidentally, i agree with your take that this will end poorly. the $1T question is...when? that is the question the OP in this thread has gotten wrong over and over and over again.

Yeah ok. We probably don't have too dissimilar views when it comes down to it.

Also obviously it is for the most part government intervention that has helped the markets, however I'm in the deflationist camp. Call me nuts but 10 yr bonds will probably be a good investment at 4% if it ever gets up there, assuming the US doesn't default.