The S&P 500 will top soon at 2925-2930

[NQurious]

Nah, they bought 5 mins before the close on Friday. Look at your charts!

I am no options guru and I have said I am in fact an options newbie as I have only recently been studying options specifically those on SPY as my main market is the $SPX/ES. One thing that became clear through the week based on the behavior of July 1 SPY options (expiring tomorrow) was that the market was anticipating a big move Monday and that the bets were being made to the upside. I had sold a credit spread near the high for the week on Monday and that spread during any of the previous weeks I've been tracking would have declined to 30 to 40 cents (or lower) by Thursday's close. It never declined below 59 cents, and by noon Friday it was trading almost as high as I had sold it five days earlier, with SPY trading 2 dollars lower than when I had sold it.

In other words, though I did not believe it myself even as it was happening, that buy into the close was telegraphed almost all week long, and by Wednesday's close and Thursday's open, it was squawking loud and clear to those who know how to interpret such squawks (again, as an options newbie I do not read those signs as well).

Again - I am no guru and I am not trying to fluff myself here as being in the same league with the guys here for whom options is their arena. Just sharing an observation that I would not have been able to make until recently. I have a feeling that the real smart money shows its hand not in futures, but in the options market.

 

[jl1575]

Option has an unique benefit in its limited risk (if you simply just buy CALL or PUT), so in case of unpredictable market events, the downside is under control. in addition, you can sit through some fluctuation without being shaken out until the expiration time. Though option will reduce the max profit but the benefit of far better risk control makes it a desirable strategy.

 

[noddyboy]

It begins with NQ only up +100, but I won't be surprised to see +300 tomorrow as bears rush to cover.

 

[S2007S]

So the G20 Saturday meeting is taking place, there won't be a trade deal, but they will definitely avert an additional $300 billion worth of tariffs that are supposed to go into effect. They won't let that happen, that's for Definite sure!!!!

Markets should rally Monday 1%+ on this news alone.

Told ya!!!!

1% skyrocketing futures!!!!





PRE-MARKETS
Stocks rise to close out Dow's biggest June gain since 1938
DOW FUT
6:34 PM EDT26599.96Index Close 26821.0Last Price26597.96Fair Value 228.00 (0.86%)Change223.04 (0.84%)Implied Open
S&P FUT
6:33 PM EDT2941.76Index Close 2972.0Last Price2945.96Fair Value 27.75 (0.94%)Change26.04 (0.88%)Implied Open
NAS FUT
6:33 PM EDT7671.08Index Close 7806.5Last Price7698.08Fair Value 112.75 (1.47%)Change108.42 (1.41%)

 

[S2007S]

Trump should just keep pretending to add tariffs, you know once a week. That could knock stocks down 3% ...then the following week announce no tariffs and watch markets rally 5%......2 steps back but 4 steps forward!!! Rinse and repeat.

I mean did you really think he was going to add those $300 billion worth tariffs going into this weekend meeting. Fu$k no.

More free money!!

 

[noddyboy]

Trump should just keep pretending to add tariffs, you know once a week. That could knock stocks down 3% ...then the following week announce no tariffs and watch markets rally 5%......2 steps back but 4 steps forward!!! Rinse and repeat.

I mean did you really think he was going to add those $300 billion worth tariffs going into this weekend meeting. Fu$k no.

More free money!!

I see your pain but I don't think this game is gonna end soon.

 

[Overnight]

Well, after the gap, it's falling. Let's see how Asia and Europe play it. I'm already down 21 points on the long.

I have a 52 point target, and every target always seems a stretch. I could have been out with 20 points early on, but wanted to ride the short squeeze.

Edit- 30 points down now, and still dropping. I hate going long at ATH. It always seems to screw me.

 

[NQurious]

but wanted to ride the short squeeze.

Well, here's the thing about that short squeeze - most of the guys I know personally who were short, including me, covered during the day Friday or earlier. I do not think we were any smarter than the average bear. So a lot of the fuel for this rally was probably extinguished before the weekly close. $SPX never properly finished it's decline, technically speaking, before the week ending rally, so more unfinished below before the party above 3K gets started, imo.

What we are likely about to witness is not the panic buying of trapped short sellers but the panic selling of trapped longs.

That being said, I am not taking a position tonight.

 

[noddyboy]

Well, here's the thing about that short squeeze - most of the guys I know personally who were short, including me, covered during the day Friday or earlier. I do not think we were any smarter than the average bear. So a lot of the fuel for this rally was probably extinguished before the weekly close. $SPX never properly finished it's decline, technically speaking, before the week ending rally, so more unfinished below before the party above 3K gets started, imo.

What we are likely about to witness is not the panic buying of trapped short sellers but the panic selling of trapped longs.

That being said, I am not taking a position tonight.

Don't forget it is not a full week. July 4th fireworks. Traditionally bullish and now we have Trump the showman.

 

[Overnight]

Don't forget it is not a full week. July 4th fireworks. Traditionally bullish and now we have Trump the showman.

Bleh. Fireworks are illegal all over the Northeast. Bunch of wimpy wankers here who don't know what the hell they are doing with fire and stuff. MORONS up here I tell you!