Precisely. You can't arb it because you are not the govt.
The S&P 500 will top soon at 2925-2930
- Thread starter volente_00
- Start date
Precisely. You can't arb it because you are not the govt.
No, I know plenty of traders who trade the basis spread using BrokerTec or Cantor Fitzgerald for the Treasuries. TT has had the market on X-Trader for over 15 years now.
So - will we finally print 3000?
It's interesting to note that the last two times we made new highs above a former top the market corrected shortly after.
1. In August 2018, we trade approximately 68 points higher than the prior all-time high before correcting approximately just shy of 600 points. Nice. The bottom were formed in December 2018.
2. A very impressive recovery rally followed and we breached the old high from September 2018, but this time only by roughly 14 points and once again followed by a correction. This time 'only' 225 points down.
3. And here we are back up again and have printed new highs roughly 10 points higher than the prior all-time high.
The market appears to be stalling here and taking a breather.
Not a prediction either way, but based on what's happened in the past in similar scenarios, I don't think anyone should be surprised to see us sell off from here (2950), nor should we be surprised to see us trade at least up to 3000 before retracing or correcting.
It does however seem unlikely that a significant rally will continue from this point on though. At least in my opinion.
Thoughts?
It's interesting to note that the last two times we made new highs above a former top the market corrected shortly after.
1. In August 2018, we trade approximately 68 points higher than the prior all-time high before correcting approximately just shy of 600 points. Nice. The bottom were formed in December 2018.
2. A very impressive recovery rally followed and we breached the old high from September 2018, but this time only by roughly 14 points and once again followed by a correction. This time 'only' 225 points down.
3. And here we are back up again and have printed new highs roughly 10 points higher than the prior all-time high.
The market appears to be stalling here and taking a breather.
Not a prediction either way, but based on what's happened in the past in similar scenarios, I don't think anyone should be surprised to see us sell off from here (2950), nor should we be surprised to see us trade at least up to 3000 before retracing or correcting.
It does however seem unlikely that a significant rally will continue from this point on though. At least in my opinion.
Thoughts?
The outcome of the Trump-Xi meeting next week will determine the short-term movement, and the next Fed meeting will seal in the deal. I cannot see the Fed capitulating if a deal is struck. There would be no rate cut were that the case, I suspect. Who the hell knows what will happen then.
My immediate expectation is for a 3 to 5 +/- day pullback to the low 2900's or lower, perhaps all the way back to 2850's.
Then rally to 3020's, perhaps 3100 or higher ESU.
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BYND was a good call
Failure to close over 2959 puts 2746 touch in play
Hilarious!!!!
Just like that....right. sell on the news!!
Stock futures surge after Treasury Secretary Mnuchin says US-China deal is 90% complete
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/26/stock-market-traders-digest-feds-powell-comments.html
Just like that....right. sell on the news!!
Stock futures surge after Treasury Secretary Mnuchin says US-China deal is 90% complete
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/26/stock-market-traders-digest-feds-powell-comments.html
Bitcoin just doesn't stop!!
People just keep chasing it higher. Everyone is talking about new highs above $20000 but to go there with even a pullback is quite impossible in my opinion
I own a little gbtc that I bought around 12 over a year ago or so it jumped to $20+ when bitcoin jumped to $20000 and then Traded all the way down to $4 level and I never cost averaged in and today it's back up above$15+ . Incredible run .. selling it today and will buy it back if bitcoin ever gets below $5000. I'm not a bitcoin bull and still believe it's monopoly money but hey if the fools want to think this is the future of currency so be it. It's going to drop just like it did last time. Anyone with gains is a fool not to get out and take profits.
People just keep chasing it higher. Everyone is talking about new highs above $20000 but to go there with even a pullback is quite impossible in my opinion
I own a little gbtc that I bought around 12 over a year ago or so it jumped to $20+ when bitcoin jumped to $20000 and then Traded all the way down to $4 level and I never cost averaged in and today it's back up above$15+ . Incredible run .. selling it today and will buy it back if bitcoin ever gets below $5000. I'm not a bitcoin bull and still believe it's monopoly money but hey if the fools want to think this is the future of currency so be it. It's going to drop just like it did last time. Anyone with gains is a fool not to get out and take profits.