The S&P 500 will top soon at 2925-2930

[noddyboy]

That kind of stuff is totally irrelevant to pricing a security in the secondary market. If anything, it's a reason NOT to buy since there's a nearly 100% chance you're overpaying, given the huge dumb-money bid from tons of millennial Robinhood accounts.

If you want to save the planet, then get your friends/family to buy the product in lieu of meat, or lobby Congress to introduce a carbon tax.

I have been a bear for a long time, but I am interested in real economic analysis. Are millennials dumb in investing? Or are they still on the sidelines and will be supporting the market going forward?

https://www.finrafoundation.org/fil...tures-7-myths-about-millennials-and-investing

 

[Specterx]

I am just trying to get better arguments here rather than it is a short because it is up big. There are companies with 100 P/Es that turned out to be great buys 25 years later.

I haven't done an in-depth analysis myself - but my impression from experience is that the name is steeply overvalued here and will not be a good investment. We're talking about a high-priced niche food product here. The business may well be a smashing success but a $10 billion valuation is nuts.

At a glance, TSN (second largest meat processor in the world) has a market cap of $24bn and sales of $40bn. BYND has a market cap of $10bn and sales of $40 million. So it's a double from here, in the absolute best case scenario that alternative meat totally displaces real meat AND that BYND ends up the dominant player in the market. The chance of that happening is pretty close to zero.

A much more likely scenario that would still represent massive outlier success, would be for BYND to end up with $500m-$1bn in sales and a market cap of $750m or so. Maybe they could get acquired for $2bn if acquirers are in a mood to overpay.

 

[noddyboy]

I haven't done an in-depth analysis myself - but my impression from experience is that the name is steeply overvalued here and will not be a good investment. We're talking about a high-priced niche food product here. The business may well be a smashing success but a $10 billion valuation is nuts.

At a glance, TSN (second largest meat processor in the world) has a market cap of $24bn and sales of $40bn. BYND has a market cap of $10bn and sales of $40 million. So it's a double from here, in the absolute best case scenario that alternative meat totally displaces real meat AND that BYND ends up the dominant player in the market. The chance of that happening is pretty close to zero.

A much more likely scenario that would still represent massive outlier success, would be for BYND to end up with $500m-$1bn in sales and a market cap of $750m or so. Maybe they could get acquired for $2bn if acquirers are in a mood to overpay.

I have been a perma bear but I have been in so many short squeezes in the past 10 years that I learned not to short the "obvious". I guess my point is, don't be a hero and short something of limited float. Heros have short lives. If you do short, I recommend to do so behind a big research report of fraud, or catalyst like running out of cash, or if there is some particular insight that no one else knows. The companies that crashed most in 2000 or 2008 ran out of cash. Amazon raised enough cash that it didn't have to raise anymore -- and it ultimately recovered.

I am not defending the crazy valuation or planning to hold for the long term. Yes, I know, famous last words. But I have seen more often it goes the other way. The most I lose in my small long position is my investment, and as I said, I am a bear and have index shorts. The world is upside down. Companies that can burn money and disrupt are rewarded because money is free, and the more you consume of free stuff, the fatter you can get. I am just pointing out the obvious for the last 10 years. Maybe it will crash badly. I hope so. Or maybe it can last another 10 years. Or any number in between.

 

[S2007S]

Bynd short info...

Ludacris numbers


Short interest stands at $814 million, or 5.87 million shares shorted, representing more than 50% of Beyond Meat’s float. Beyond Meat is the sixth-largest short bet in the domestic packaged foods and meat sector, but bears are down $574 million in mark-to-market losses as the shares keep climbing. The stock is up 570% from its May 2 initial-public-offering price of $25.

 

[Overnight]

Millenials hate real cows.

 

[volente_00]

I have been a bear for a long time, but I am interested in real economic analysis. Are millennials dumb in investing? Or are they still on the sidelines and will be supporting the market going forward?

https://www.finrafoundation.org/fil...tures-7-myths-about-millennials-and-investing

You have to work to invest and the majority of millenials are too lazy or too picky. Spoke to an 18 year old the other day and they said they can't find a first job because they want to make $15 an hour or would rather sit at home.

 

[noddyboy]

So what's next? FOMC is coming up next week.

 

[S2007S]

Bynd

Hahahah

Now near $200... profitless company with way too much hype ...tried shorting again. No luck. Will do options at the open.

 

[S2007S]

Adding shorts and more short positions


Talk of a possible rate cut?
A possibility of a China deal?

Haaaa

 

[bone]

Adding shorts and more short positions


Talk of a possible rate cut?
A possibility of a China deal?

Haaaa

Well, as a general rule - leaders of countries don't agree to meet under extraordinary circumstances unless there has been substantive progress towards resolving an issue. That's just standard statecraft.