The S&P 500 will bottom in 2020 at 2579-2645

[volente_00]

I say we are close to a bottom on the S&P at 2589-2645


3000 is the first objective
With 3340 in play after that


Once again I am placing 1% deviation and will consider this call void if SPX closes below 2553

 

[trdes]

To be clear I trade intra-day only and just trade whats in front of me long or short. However, I did vote the second option. We may have some spectacular rallies still left, but overall the probabilities of 2589-2645 holding longer term and starting a new sustained bull move is pretty low. Not saying it can't rally to 3000 though.... that wouldn't change my view and that really isn't THAT far away(I think a rally like that would most likely provide a great short setup)

Normally I discount news events almost entirely when trading. There's just too many other events lining up though. It's been mentioned a lot but a quick review is:

#1 Low CL prices(fed does not want to see deflation)
#2 FED acted and it didn't really help the markets
#3 Corona Virus (regardless of how bad or not bad it gets it will make people panic sell)
#4 Markets were already over done and primed for an excuse to pull back.

Add in the fact that technical's also do not support 2589-2645 holding long term. I would say S&P 2200-2300 would not be surprising at all and the area I'd be looking at.

 

[Sekiyo]

2531

 

[notagain]

uncharted territory

 

[Specterx]

I say we are close to a bottom on the S&P at 2589-2645


3000 is the first objective
With 3340 in play after that


Once again I am placing 1% deviation and will consider this call void if SPX closes below 2553

I think there's a good chance your zone is the bottom. The main thing is to see strong government action in the coming days to address credit market stress and general negative economic sentiment. The caseload figures are going to be rocketing higher for at least several weeks to come, but at this point that's well known and presumably priced in - it will be significant if the market fails to sell off much on further virus news.

Every tick lower is a gift to long term investors, but these rapid sequential hammer blows combined with Trump's obvious flailing and admin dysfunction could drive panic to a further extreme - maybe we'll even test that 20% circuit breaker.

 

[trdes]

I think there's a good chance your zone is the bottom. The main thing is to see strong government action in the coming days to address credit market stress and general negative economic sentiment. The caseload figures are going to be rocketing higher for at least several weeks to come, but at this point that's well known and presumably priced in - it will be significant if the market fails to sell off much on further virus news.

Every tick lower is a gift to long term investors, but these rapid sequential hammer blows combined with Trump's obvious flailing and admin dysfunction could drive panic to a further extreme - maybe we'll even test that 20% circuit breaker.

Well now I myself am going too deep into this and too much speculation, so please forgive me but I think it's an interesting thought. I don't exactly have a huge sample size, but through multiple avenues I have heard people talking / excited about buying the dip. So, just makes me think people are going to be a little too early, but if you're long term investing maybe that doesn't particularly matter.as much.

Too much speculation lol, I need to just shutup and trade what I know. It's easy to get sucked into it though.

 

[padutrader]

I agree we are close to low

 

[Cuddles]

I agree we are close to low

 

[ET180]

I have no idea where the bottom is. But a few thoughts.

Good:
1. Earnings will suck, but this is actually a positive. Corporations will write off all the crap that they had been wanting to do the prior years, but held back because they did not want to tarnish an earnings report. Guidance will be good. Assuming that the CV blows over, guidance will be good.
2. With interest rates going lower, many good companies with solid dividends should find support. Probably a good buying opportunity.

Bad:
1. No more buybacks. Gone. At least for a while. Buybacks provided major support for this market. Since 2010, more money has gone into buybacks than dividends.

I think we bottom when one of two events happen:

1. Number of infected cases drop / or stop increasing.
2. People realize that we're really just looking at a bad case of flu. This data indicates that it's neither highly contagious or deadly for people under 70:

https://informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/covid-19-coronavirus-infographic-datapack/

I'm actually glad to hear that some celebrities got it. Why? Because I don't like them. Just kidding. I hope they recover and rather it's good because their progress will be followed and once they make a recovery without losing a limb, people will realize that it's not that bad.

 

[S2007S]

Dropping straight through 2000 on s$p if they quarantine the entire nation. If they do what they did in Italy expect markets to drop 20% in a week or two. All technicals will be broken and an easy 2000 will be here. Could easily lose 50% from s$p highs.
Fed has nothing left, as I said many thousands of times, rates should have been at 5-6% the last 6 years or so, but nope. They kept giving wallstreet what they wanted so the fed has nothing left but a tiny 1% which will disappear overnight to zero once the panic, collapse and deep recession kicks in. Hence my prediction for negative interest rates.