The S&P 500 will bottom in 2020 at 2579-2645

[Laissez Faire]

This is not factually correct...

I'm not saying TA does no longer work. There's been plenty of excellent technical signals and behavior over the last few weeks in both directions. That said, to me, it has not been an easy market to trade. Particularly on a day like today.

What I was referring to was TA in picking a bottom in advance. We're in panic mode.

I first had my eyes on 20 % down. That happened on Monday and produced a nice bounce. Again, technical.

I knew that if we'd exceed that on the second push down, we were most likely going to go a lot lower still.

What I'm saying is that I don't think you can predict this downturn to end at a certain price level. At this point, it's everyone's guess.

We can only follow price and anticipate a reaction from what we perceive to be key levels. As of today, we're down - 27 % from the top.

 

[trdes]

I'm not saying TA does no longer work. There's been plenty of excellent technical signals and behavior over the last few weeks in both directions. That said, to me, it has not been an easy market to trade. Particularly on a day like today.

What I was referring to was TA in picking a bottom in advance. We're in panic mode.

I first had my eyes on 20 % down. That happened on Monday and produced a nice bounce. Again, technical.

I knew that if we'd exceed that on the second push down, we were most likely going to go a lot lower still.

What I'm saying is that I don't think you can predict this downturn to end at a certain price level. At this point, it's everyone's guess.

We can only follow price and anticipate a reaction from what we perceive to be key levels. As of today, we're down - 27 % from the top.

Ok that makes sense and I understand better now, just misunderstood and thought you were saying TA was completely useless.

 

[Laissez Faire]

Ok that makes sense and I understand better now, just misunderstood and thought you were saying TA was completely useless.

I trade 100 % technically myself and I continue observing that technicals work very well. But like I've said, I've had some troubles in this market. Mostly not being fast enough and early on using too tight stops after volatility increased.

Now, picking a bottom on the daily chart is an entirely different matter, I think.

 

[trdes]

I trade 100 % technically myself and I continue observing that technicals work very well. But like I've said, I've had some troubles in this market. Mostly not being fast enough and early on using too tight stops after volatility increased.

Now, picking a bottom on the daily chart is an entirely different matter, I think.

I can understand and appreciate that. Typically they drop the markets to accumulate more, lately they've been pumping the markets to sell into whatever liquidity they can find. It's certainly a change that can make it difficult and that most people are unprepared for, particularly since it's been going on 3 weeks now.

I was taking long and short trades, up until this week. I've only been taking shorts this week, there's been plenty of setups and I just don't feel the need to go long when we've been having limit downs and etc. It's not necessarily scary, just no need for the potential loss when I can make what I need shorting.

 

[Laissez Faire]

I've only been taking shorts this week, there's been plenty of setups and I just don't feel the need to go long when we've been having limit downs and etc.

What are you trading?

 

[trdes]

What are you trading?

In the past I was trading ES, NQ, YM, CL and GC. Since things have changed, I currently trade MNQ predominantly. I don't have the mental skill set, nor the capital to trade full contracts in this environment and I know that. I've also noticed by cutting down on my products and charts I can better follow things and not miss vital information trying to track everything.
Cutting down my size and catching bigger moves has helped a lot.

 

[volente_00]

Well that was fast



2350 ish is my next bottom based on the long term SPX chart and the 30% past correction


The bounce from there will be to 2870-2930

These are some crazy times so stay safe my friends.

If we look at what dow did before, during and after the 1918 flu pandemic it lost about 30% from its peak.

 

[volente_00]

 

[schizo]

I say we are close to a bottom on the S&P at 2589-2645


3000 is the first objective
With 3340 in play after that


Once again I am placing 1% deviation and will consider this call void if SPX closes below 2553

Aren't you too damn old for all this prediction business?

With that said, we'll know when it bounces. Don't need Nostradamus for that.

 

[volente_00]

Dropping straight through 2000 on s$p if they quarantine the entire nation. If they do what they did in Italy expect markets to drop 20% in a week or two. All technicals will be broken and an easy 2000 will be here. Could easily lose 50% from s$p highs.
Fed has nothing left, as I said many thousands of times, rates should have been at 5-6% the last 6 years or so, but nope. They kept giving wallstreet what they wanted so the fed has nothing left but a tiny 1% which will disappear overnight to zero once the panic, collapse and deep recession kicks in. Hence my prediction for negative interest rates.

The sky is falling



Limit up !!!


See you bears at 2871