The S&P 500 topped at 3481

Did the S&P 500 top at 3481 ?

  • Hell yea

  • Hell no

  • Who cares you’re still an idiot

  • Who cares destereo makes 14 figures a day trading micro minis for his fund

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I like @volente_00.

The "value" of his top/bottom calling threads is not the pricing, but the GENERAL timing. Being early implementing a trade plan happens to everyone who actually trades! Failing does not necessarily negate the reasoning/thesis, although the trade unquestionably sucks eggs. Credit to volente as he includes entries, stops, targets, and even adjustments, for all the home gamers to see.

For the record, I agree with the general timing of volentes call for a drop. It will happen soon (lol), imo. And will come with more than a day of sustainability. None of which is bear conditions, rather it is just healthy trading, again imo. But as a day-trader, I do my best to merely follow the bouncing ball rather than allow my biggerish analysis/bias dictate the trading day... If I only do my job, I will be where the action is!

Almost forgot... 9/2/20 is full moon. :caution::confused:o_O:wtf::D
 
Dude please. The guy blew out years ago. Well before his 2200 top call. How many top calls since then? The guy used to be on fattail.org and finally left after so many failed accounts.
 
Why short a rising market?

Every prior top recently was forewarned by a daily reversal which gave ample opportunity to enter short on that day's Close or the next day. It's very unlikely that tomorrow will open gap down 80 points unless there's a news crash - which by definition would be unpredictable anyway.
 
It's the ego-driven fallacy perpetuated by Jack Schwaeger's "Market Wizards" - which was the biggest disservice ever made to the trading community. I wouldn't be surprised to hear that that tome has blown out ten thousand accounts. Timing market tops and bottoms without confirming price action is a great way to burn through account capital on the shittiest risk/reward bet known to mankind.

On February 26, you had the fourth down day and it took out a significant and long standing trend line on the close. If you sold at the open on the 27th - market went from 3100 down to 2174 in eighteen trading days.

Oh, and Covid cases have been steadily trending down in the US since the July highs.

Laissez Faire said:
Why short a rising market?

Every prior top recently was forewarned by a daily reversal which gave ample opportunity to enter short on that day's Close or the next day. It's very unlikely that tomorrow will open gap down 80 points unless there's a news crash - which by definition would be unpredictable anyway.
More...
 
bone said:
It's the ego-driven fallacy perpetuated by Jack Schwaeger's "Market Wizards" - which was the biggest disservice ever made to the trading community. I wouldn't be surprised to hear that that tome has blown out ten thousand accounts. Timing market tops and bottoms without confirming price action is a great way to burn through account capital on the shittiest risk/reward bet known to mankind.

On February 26, you had the fourth down day and it took out a significant and long standing trend line on the close. If you sold at the open on the 27th - market went from 3100 down to 2174 in eighteen trading days.

Oh, and Covid cases have been steadily trending down in the US since the July highs.
More...
And ever since the VIX has been trying to close Feb 27th gap up. Until that does I'd think not much chance of reversal, of any meaningful kind, happening:-
VIX gap.png


As for Covid, here is what NY State new cases looks like - still way below Spring's nearly 10k a day rate but it has up ticked 5 out of the last 6 days. Round 2 could be starting?
CV19 NY.png
 
Now that is the kind of analytics that I can appreciate, thanks so much for adding some color.

Point being, it's always better to give up some trading range in exchange for a much better risk/reward skew (price action confirmation, earnings, etc.) .

SunTrader said:
And ever since the VIX has been trying to close Feb 27th gap up. Until that does I'd think not much chance of reversal, of any meaningful kind, happening:-
View attachment 238551

As for Covid, here is what NY State new cases looks like - still way below Spring's nearly 10k a day rate but it has up ticked 5 out of the last 6 days. Round 2 could be starting?
View attachment 238553
More...
 
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