The S&P 500 topped at 3017.8

[Nine_Ender]

If we never hit 3200, you are never taking profits?

The real question is what direction are US listed large caps most likely to go short term. My answer is up. To come to that conclusion requires an acceptance earlier this year that 3200 was well withing the normal range of probabilities for this year. Many on here thought it was a hilarious concept; that was a highly irrational way to see things. No forecast has any guarantee, but the predicted percentage gains since January 2018 were quite normal considering the backdrop of economy and interest rates.

80-90% of the reasons people post on here for markets to go down are irrational and not well thought out. Even when there was a very real reason for markets to go down, when Trump was going full throttle on the trade wars, it took forever for the usual suspects on here to realize why markets were going down. I had no problem exiting to cash on May 6th and will do the same if there appears a very real reason why we are going down.

 

[HeSaidSheSaid]

1) the good sign is the long term bond yield disengaging from the short term yield = fear of recession has diminished. I think bond is about to fall over. (big money is dumping bonds today.
2) China and US is settling for a trade deal. (more economic activities would be spurred from this agreement in both countries).
3) EU is accommodating to Brexit
4) FED is friendly
5) GM strike was over
6) seasonal bullishness
7) Trump impeachment wouldn't be an issue (Trump was able to get away with the Mueller's finding: no collusion with Russia. Ukraine's Quid Pro quo is small potato. Though I think Trump's money has some KGB's money (judging on the way he has treated his "dear friend" Putin).
8) TA wise, We might consolidate here in the short term (due to overbought condition)... SPX is breaking out the range after months of consolidation. I think it won't fail this time because there're good fundamental catalysts behind it.
I think SPX could gain 150 points in the next 6 months is doable.

 

[S2007S]

1) the good sign is the long term bond yield disengaging from the short term yield = fear of recession has diminished. I think bond is about to fail over. (big money is dumping bonds today.
2) China and US is settling for a trade deal. (more economic activities would be spurred from this agreement in both countries).
3) EU is accommodating to Brexit
4) FED is friendly
5) GM strike was over
6) seasonal bullishness
7) Trump impeachment wouldn't be an issue (Trump was able to get away with the Mueller's finding: no collusion with Russia. Ukraine's Quid Pro quo is small potato. Though I think Trump's money has some KGB's money (judging on the way he has treated his "dear friend" Putin).
8) TA wise, We might consolidate here in the short term (due to overbought condition)... SPX is breaking out the range after months of consolidation. I think it won't fail this time because there're good fundamental catalysts behind it.
I think SPX could gain 150 points in the next 6 months is doable.

150 points in 6 months????

Come on. Let's be real.

How about 150 points in 6 days!!!!!!!!

 

[schizo]

80-90% of the reasons people post on here for markets to go down are irrational and not well thought out. Even when there was a very real reason for markets to go down,

The annual inflation rate for the United States is 1.7% for the 12 months ended September 2019, the same increase as for the 12 months ending August, as published October 10, 2019 by the U.S. Labor Department.

However, the stock market has been behaving as if we were going through hyperflation. Go figure. And, worst yet, the Fed slashes the interest rate 3 times. What exactly is the barometer they use to cut the rates--other than the stock market? I guess my question is if the stock market is hitting all-time-highs, WTF do you need to slash the rates for? After all, that's all they care about isn't it? Other than saving the Wall Street, they never cared about labor market anyway.

 

[HeSaidSheSaid]

150 points in 6 months????

Come on. Let's be real.

How about 150 points in 6 days!!!!!!!!

are you being sarcastic? SPX index is 800 pound turtle. sometimes, it takes time to herd these 500 cats.

 

[S2007S]

The annual inflation rate for the United States is 1.7% for the 12 months ended September 2019, the same increase as for the 12 months ending August, as published October 10, 2019 by the U.S. Labor Department.

However, the stock market has been behaving as if we were going through hyperflation. Go figure. And, worst yet, the Fed slashes the interest rate 3 times. What exactly is the barometer they use to cut the rates--other than the stock market? I guess my question is if the stock market is hitting all-time-highs, WTF do you need to slash the rates for? After all, that's all they care about isn't it? Other than saving the Wall Street, they never cared about labor market anyway.

The fed does absolutely nothing but save wallstreet nowadays. They bow to everything wallstreet wants as you can tell from the last 3 rate cuts that were absolutely unnecessary!!! In the history of wallstreet and the fed, when have they ever cut rates with UNemployment at historical lows, markets at historical highs, GDP at 2% and corporate profits booming??

I'm waiting...tick tock tick tock ...

the answer is NEVER!!

All the fed cares about is boosting the stock market, the day the economy and markets collapse they will have absolutely nothing to save it as all credibility will be entirely lost by the games they are playing this second to keep the markets juiced. They claim the fed doesn't listen to the markets, those are Fu$king lies. The fed will do anything to save wallstreet as you can see they have been doing for the last 3 decades. And to think how many years it will be before the fed raises rates, if anything rates should be higher not lower, but about 98% of the people would disagree. Seems the higher the markets go the more bowing to wallstreet the fed does.

 

[schizo]

All the fed cares about is boosting the stock market, the day the economy and markets collapse they will have absolutely nothing to save it as all credibility will be entirely lost by the games they are playing this second to keep the markets juiced. They claim the fed doesn't listen to the markets, those are Fu$king lies. The fed will do anything to save wallstreet as you can see they have been doing for the last 3 decades. And to think how many years it will be before the fed raises rates, if anything rates should be higher not lower, but about 98% of the people would disagree. Seems the higher the markets go the more bowing to wallstreet the fed does.

“The public be damned. I am working for my stockholders.”

—WILLIAM H. VANDERBILT, president of the New York Central Railroad, 1882


Why am I not surprised. The Fed's alma mater is Goldman Sachs, isn't it?

 

[Overnight]

...And to think how many years it will be before the fed raises rates, if anything rates should be higher not lower, but about 98% of the people would disagree. Seems the higher the markets go the more bowing to wallstreet the fed does.

The Fed was raising rates a year ago. Don't think it won't happen again in your lifetime.

 

[S2007S]

The Fed was raising rates a year ago. Don't think it won't happen again in your lifetime.

It will be years! Trust me. If I had to take a wild guess, at least 4 years maybe even 5 and that's on the low end. I figure a crisis or huge recession will cut rates down to a quick zero percent before they regain traction, even go negative before they go. That's because the fed has no wiggle room for a crisis now that rates are already at historic lows.

 

[Nine_Ender]

And like clockwork, the usual crew posts their irrational theories. This is why you have a guy like S2007S forecasting an "imminent" drop of 40-60% in US indexes in early 2016 and instead markets go up 55-60%.