Looking good so far.
As of today's closing price, we're down - 3,22 % from the top on the ES.
Any prognosis on when you expect the bottom? Do you think we'll see heightened volatility moving forward next week and the rest of August?
The S&P 500 topped at 3017.8
- Thread starter volente_00
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Looking good so far.
As of today's closing price, we're down - 3,22 % from the top on the ES.
Any prognosis on when you expect the bottom? Do you think we'll see heightened volatility moving forward next week and the rest of August?
---Another great call Vawl----
Down -5.0% right now; just breaching 2870 from above.
ES volume continues it's opening surge for 40 minutes -- rather controlled, too.
Decline from 11pm EDT has not been violent, either.
Put together with post-FED decline, and "Jeepers!"
I was off on the FED call (I opined, "No change!" but like many others, called for a decline regardless -- citing too much "psych!!", too much China-trade threat ("two wheels in the ditch")... It seems China has grabbed the wheel, too, and put a third wheel into the ditch.
With Iran taking ships, China not-filling ships, mean-spewing 8chan filling MAGA-zines, I think the eyeballs are on the downside. I think the solution (for thinkers) is to Buy The Fuggin' Dip.
My thesis last week was, "lots of short-term, downside, risk." Market would bounce a few days later. Well, the market is down -5%, VIX has gone from 12% to 15% to 17+% to 24+% this morning. (VIX9D is 24+ VIX is 21+, so bias is still short term.) If we remain around 2860 through 13:00hrs (Euro-close (~1 hour)+ lunch), then this will be our bottom. If we breach 2850 today? Look to liquidity holders: 2750 could well be in sight. (IMO.)
ES volume continues it's opening surge for 40 minutes -- rather controlled, too.
Decline from 11pm EDT has not been violent, either.
Put together with post-FED decline, and "Jeepers!"
I was off on the FED call (I opined, "No change!" but like many others, called for a decline regardless -- citing too much "psych!!", too much China-trade threat ("two wheels in the ditch")... It seems China has grabbed the wheel, too, and put a third wheel into the ditch.
With Iran taking ships, China not-filling ships, mean-spewing 8chan filling MAGA-zines, I think the eyeballs are on the downside. I think the solution (for thinkers) is to Buy The Fuggin' Dip.
My thesis last week was, "lots of short-term, downside, risk." Market would bounce a few days later. Well, the market is down -5%, VIX has gone from 12% to 15% to 17+% to 24+% this morning. (VIX9D is 24+ VIX is 21+, so bias is still short term.) If we remain around 2860 through 13:00hrs (Euro-close (~1 hour)+ lunch), then this will be our bottom. If we breach 2850 today? Look to liquidity holders: 2750 could well be in sight. (IMO.)
Well, I for one hope you're right. And I certainly think we're due for more downside myself.
I know what you came here to see
I'd love to see you take ownership of all your calls and related performance but understand the mentality some of you short siders seem to have ( it's like you've been under seige for years and are desperate for a win ). You might note I went to cash at similar times to your last two short calls, so the chances of success on these calls was imo very real but not guaranteed. However, when I see all the high fiving and early congratulations I have to note the previous failed calls ( including a long call last fall ) and question your overall performance with this strategy, even if you make the 12%. I've been lucky enough to do extremely well since December 2017 timing markets with a long only investment strategy with some swing trading. I'm not high fiving it on daily moves.
Jinkies! We've breached 2800: 2750 is *definitely* in sight.
OP was for 2650. I'm still
about that.But 2750 would be something! I'd say totally fist-bumping good:
And for that matter, 2775 (and we're <20 from that), given that
• the call was made 2-3 days early, and
• *most of* the pushers are non-market...
I'd call 2775 a total win. Were a beer on the line, I'd be buying.
But too,
, 3200 S&P500 by October 15 is doable as well.