More Irrational than the Dotcom Bubble Minimize
Tuesday, May 19, 2009
The Honest Indicator Pointing to a Sharp Correction in the Stock Market
In its epic battle against reality, âGreen Shootâ mentality is getting back into the driverâs seat.
Stock indexes pushed forward yesterday...the euroâs preparing for a run against the dollarâ¦and Indiaâs stock market saw an incredible 18% gain on the heels of a very favorable election.
And after waning last weekâ¦bullish talk and pundrity re-emerged this weekend from the white house, where Peter Orszag told CNN interviewers that the, âfreefall in the economy seems to have stopped.â
Hmmmâ¦
Weâre never eager to take the White House at their wordâ¦and weâre always willing to check the facts.
But when we looked into itâ¦the whole rally started to look a littleâ¦
Well, letâs just say that we found something in todayâs stock markets that might truly shock youâ¦
Itâs All About Price to Earningsâ¦
After all, earnings are a major part of the reason you invest in a company.
We all remember the dotcom boomâ¦and the insane prices that were offered for shares of companies with little or no earnings.
Back then, it was due to optimism about the internet. The web was growing so fastâ¦and the variety of profitable Internet franchises seemed boundless. The possibilities seemed truly endlessâ¦
That is, until we realized they werenât. And it all came crashing down.
Could todayâs bear market rally be even more irrational than the dotcom boomâ¦leading to a sharper correction?
The Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratios seem to be saying âyesââ¦
When the dotcom boom went bust, P/E ratios â a key valuation metric â shrunk back down to more realistic sizes as so many start-ups went bankrupt and faced de-listing. And investors went on to use this metric as a touchstoneâ¦evaluating the relative value of bank stocks, REITs and Real Estate Developers.
But not everyone calculates P/E the same.
And like so many other complicated concepts â such as inflation â the bottom-line number often serves to hide the assumptions made in calculation. For example, when I say a stock has a P/E of â15â or â6,â I give no description of the time period being used for my calculations, or the various assumptions Iâm making.
Itâs like taking inflation â one of the most complicated, hard-to-grasp concepts in all of economics â and saying itâs 4. Itâs almost asinine. And it grossly understatesâ¦
Whatâs Really Happening Out There
â¦Whatâs really happening out there is a freefall of corporate earnings unlike anything weâve ever seen. The single fastest drop theyâve suffered in recorded historyâ¦
Earnings Fall off a Cliffâ¦But What About Prices?
If analyst estimates remain on point, then Q3 of 2009 will see the first 12-month period in which earnings run negative.
But that doesnât make any sense!
If earnings were really falling so fast, then why are stock prices rallying? Itâs not like weâre all looking at some rosy, tech-boom future. So whatâs the deal? Is the âGreen Shootâ mentality really that strongâ¦is it really that irrational?
In a word, yes. But here are a few more wordsâ¦
As I mentioned above, P/E could be âcookedâ in any number of ways. It could be calculated over a 5- or 10-year period. It could calculate negative earnings as zeroes. Certain analysts might quarantine the bank stocks in their evaluation. Any number of rabbits could be pulled from any number of hats to generate any P/E you want to look at.
The possibilities are endless.
Butâ¦what if we calculated current P/E based only on this most recent batch of earnings numbers and analyst estimates for the future?
(Iâll ask you to hold your breath hereâ¦)
Accounting for negative earnings reports for the S&P 500 over the last several quarters, the S&P 500 is now trading at 131 times earnings!
Of course, it's not the same as when the index traded at 44 times earnings back in the days of the dotcom bubble. That was a peak P/E ratio compared to peak earnings. In that case, both Earnings and P/E ratios eventually fell as the S&P plummeted over 45%.
In fact, high P/E ratios can sometimes presage a good opportunity to buyâ¦
That's when earnings simply fell faster and farther than share prices... and earnings were on the verge of a recovery. But we don't think now is one of those times.
When we look at expected earnings for the S&P 500, we see forecasts of 28.5 for 2009 and 39.3 for 2010. That would put the current value of the S&P at about 32 times this year's earnings and 23 times next year's earnings. Those are numbers far above the long-term trailing P/E average of 16.
They are farther still from the single digit market P/Es we have seen at previous major market bottoms.
What's more, market history also shows that when you buy at a P/E above 20, you can expect to see negative share price action over the ensuing 3-, 6- and 12-month periods.
Last but not least, we find the current level of the S&P in relation to estimated '09 and '10 earnings to be especially pricey for a market that still has so much macro-economic risk in it.
So today weâll remind you of the old adage; âSell in May and go away.â Seems that could be a good strategy this time around.
Hmmmâ¦I wonder how much those S&P puts are going forâ¦
Yours in Personal Sovereignty,
MATTHEW COLLINS, A-Letter Editor
Tuesday, May 19, 2009
The Honest Indicator Pointing to a Sharp Correction in the Stock Market
In its epic battle against reality, âGreen Shootâ mentality is getting back into the driverâs seat.
Stock indexes pushed forward yesterday...the euroâs preparing for a run against the dollarâ¦and Indiaâs stock market saw an incredible 18% gain on the heels of a very favorable election.
And after waning last weekâ¦bullish talk and pundrity re-emerged this weekend from the white house, where Peter Orszag told CNN interviewers that the, âfreefall in the economy seems to have stopped.â
Hmmmâ¦
Weâre never eager to take the White House at their wordâ¦and weâre always willing to check the facts.
But when we looked into itâ¦the whole rally started to look a littleâ¦
Well, letâs just say that we found something in todayâs stock markets that might truly shock youâ¦
Itâs All About Price to Earningsâ¦
After all, earnings are a major part of the reason you invest in a company.
We all remember the dotcom boomâ¦and the insane prices that were offered for shares of companies with little or no earnings.
Back then, it was due to optimism about the internet. The web was growing so fastâ¦and the variety of profitable Internet franchises seemed boundless. The possibilities seemed truly endlessâ¦
That is, until we realized they werenât. And it all came crashing down.
Could todayâs bear market rally be even more irrational than the dotcom boomâ¦leading to a sharper correction?
The Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratios seem to be saying âyesââ¦
When the dotcom boom went bust, P/E ratios â a key valuation metric â shrunk back down to more realistic sizes as so many start-ups went bankrupt and faced de-listing. And investors went on to use this metric as a touchstoneâ¦evaluating the relative value of bank stocks, REITs and Real Estate Developers.
But not everyone calculates P/E the same.
And like so many other complicated concepts â such as inflation â the bottom-line number often serves to hide the assumptions made in calculation. For example, when I say a stock has a P/E of â15â or â6,â I give no description of the time period being used for my calculations, or the various assumptions Iâm making.
Itâs like taking inflation â one of the most complicated, hard-to-grasp concepts in all of economics â and saying itâs 4. Itâs almost asinine. And it grossly understatesâ¦
Whatâs Really Happening Out There
â¦Whatâs really happening out there is a freefall of corporate earnings unlike anything weâve ever seen. The single fastest drop theyâve suffered in recorded historyâ¦
Earnings Fall off a Cliffâ¦But What About Prices?
If analyst estimates remain on point, then Q3 of 2009 will see the first 12-month period in which earnings run negative.
But that doesnât make any sense!
If earnings were really falling so fast, then why are stock prices rallying? Itâs not like weâre all looking at some rosy, tech-boom future. So whatâs the deal? Is the âGreen Shootâ mentality really that strongâ¦is it really that irrational?
In a word, yes. But here are a few more wordsâ¦
As I mentioned above, P/E could be âcookedâ in any number of ways. It could be calculated over a 5- or 10-year period. It could calculate negative earnings as zeroes. Certain analysts might quarantine the bank stocks in their evaluation. Any number of rabbits could be pulled from any number of hats to generate any P/E you want to look at.
The possibilities are endless.
Butâ¦what if we calculated current P/E based only on this most recent batch of earnings numbers and analyst estimates for the future?
(Iâll ask you to hold your breath hereâ¦)
Accounting for negative earnings reports for the S&P 500 over the last several quarters, the S&P 500 is now trading at 131 times earnings!
Of course, it's not the same as when the index traded at 44 times earnings back in the days of the dotcom bubble. That was a peak P/E ratio compared to peak earnings. In that case, both Earnings and P/E ratios eventually fell as the S&P plummeted over 45%.
In fact, high P/E ratios can sometimes presage a good opportunity to buyâ¦
That's when earnings simply fell faster and farther than share prices... and earnings were on the verge of a recovery. But we don't think now is one of those times.
When we look at expected earnings for the S&P 500, we see forecasts of 28.5 for 2009 and 39.3 for 2010. That would put the current value of the S&P at about 32 times this year's earnings and 23 times next year's earnings. Those are numbers far above the long-term trailing P/E average of 16.
They are farther still from the single digit market P/Es we have seen at previous major market bottoms.
What's more, market history also shows that when you buy at a P/E above 20, you can expect to see negative share price action over the ensuing 3-, 6- and 12-month periods.
Last but not least, we find the current level of the S&P in relation to estimated '09 and '10 earnings to be especially pricey for a market that still has so much macro-economic risk in it.
So today weâll remind you of the old adage; âSell in May and go away.â Seems that could be a good strategy this time around.
Hmmmâ¦I wonder how much those S&P puts are going forâ¦
Yours in Personal Sovereignty,
MATTHEW COLLINS, A-Letter Editor