Never try catch falling knife.
The S&P 500 is close to bottoming for 2018
- Thread starter volente_00
- Start date
I agree that for swing traders it's prudent to wait for confirmation, however I'm already in.
It's all relative. "Safer" than long.
This is the opinion of someone exercising good judgment. We have had a large correction. Anyone shorting the market should have shorted it at the first sign of weakness on high volume coming off the the Second monthly bar high (dbl top) . now it is time to be thinking of covering. Day traders may short whenever the immediate conditions warrant it, but we are not talking day trading here, we are talking about a month long correction! Those that entered short near the second high of the dbl top on the monthly bar chart would hold through most of the correction and may still hold short but this is not the time to enter short, and staying short is not "safe" here. We are all fallible and no one knows the future with certainty, but we can estimate probability. Take a look at the S&P Monthly bar chart from 2009 on and you will immediately grasp why entering short now carries too great a risk and staying short is not "safe".
Actually from a longer term perspective I believe long here is safer than short. I am not talking day trade here. I am talking about Trading the large market correction. From the second top using the monthly chart I projected 2660 - 2550 as my target for this correction. I therefore don't consider anything near 2660 or lower to be a "safe" short. I'd be concerned that something other than a correction might be afoot if the market should close below 2500. I always keep in mind that the "Market is wrong most of the time", i.e., it is usually either too high, or too low based on fundamentals and what makes sense. One needs to trade the actual market,i.e., the "crazy one"; not the market that makes sense.
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An add to piezoe's view of long potential:
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-10-29/google-searches-buyback-blackout-hit-all-time-high
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-10-29/google-searches-buyback-blackout-hit-all-time-high
Know what you are saying but IMO there is more to go and if that is the case (who knows really) short is safer. But 100 points in my book is an awful wide zone to look for support with SPX - actually anything more than 10 points is.
I also believe there is about a 40/60 chance of another 100 points to go. But I don't consider that bet a safe one. I say, roll the dice and let us know how it works out. I won't be critical of your choice so long as you categorize it as a bit of a gamble and not a "safe" bet.
We had our dead cat bounce and it seems to me that there is about a 50/50 chance that tail (is it 2665?) will be become one part of a dbl bottom. If that's the case, you could short now and make a little money . If you continue to hold looking for that lower low trying to capture the better part of still another 100 points below 2665, then I think your risk rises considerably. Kudos to everyone that did short the dbl top after a parabolic run up (visible on the Monthly chart). That was the high probability trade!
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