Most of the indicies have broken the channel line dating back to Feb 2016 lows. Probably voodoo to some people, but a simple and clean indication of the trend.
The S&P 500 is close to bottoming for 2018
- Thread starter volente_00
- Start date
Most of the indicies have broken the channel line dating back to Feb 2016 lows. Probably voodoo to some people, but a simple and clean indication of the trend.
Do you still maintain your original call, @volente_00 or have you reconsidered...?
Personally, I think we make new lows either continuing down on Monday or retracing some early next week before a new round of selling.
Regardless, I hope we can maintain this volatility for a week or two.
Personally, I think we make new lows either continuing down on Monday or retracing some early next week before a new round of selling.
Regardless, I hope we can maintain this volatility for a week or two.
To expand my views.
The prior two corrections in sequence.
January/February:
-343,00 points down over 11 trading days with a % change high to bottom of - 11,88 %.
March 2018:
-255,25 points down over 14 trading days with a % change high to bottom of - 9,06 %.
October 2018:
-232,50 points down over 8 days with a % change high to bottom of -7,90 %.
As can be seen, this current move down is still smaller than the prior moves on all three metrics (# days, % change and absolute point value).
Additionally, fundamental factors seems less favourable this time and we're up 13,66 % (402,50 points) bottom to high from the February lows.
All this leads me to the conclusion that this down move is still in motion and that more down side should be expected. Still, I don't trade long term as I'm a day trader, but it's a fun exercise and interesting to play around with.
10% down takes us to 2650,00.
How's that for a minimum target below?
The prior two corrections in sequence.
January/February:
-343,00 points down over 11 trading days with a % change high to bottom of - 11,88 %.
March 2018:
-255,25 points down over 14 trading days with a % change high to bottom of - 9,06 %.
October 2018:
-232,50 points down over 8 days with a % change high to bottom of -7,90 %.
As can be seen, this current move down is still smaller than the prior moves on all three metrics (# days, % change and absolute point value).
Additionally, fundamental factors seems less favourable this time and we're up 13,66 % (402,50 points) bottom to high from the February lows.
All this leads me to the conclusion that this down move is still in motion and that more down side should be expected. Still, I don't trade long term as I'm a day trader, but it's a fun exercise and interesting to play around with.
10% down takes us to 2650,00.
How's that for a minimum target below?
I think this is the key level overall , i did a log chart from 09 lows and thats the support i come up with , after that we look at YTD lows . The runup into january highs was the highest momentum for 7 years and took us 12.2% above the 200ma at levels not seen since early 2011 of 12.9% . Exhaustive move in 2011 that had a retrace then went on to make another high for year before a significant move >10% below 200dma later in year
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![[SP500]Weekly.png](/et/data/attachments/175/175115-84a72c05983fc9ccb32268c91733284f.jpg?hash=hKcsBZg_yc)
It was talked about for awhile, but didn't matter until last week.
Fail!
You need a new theory.
RSI is no good as a measure for divergence.
You can begin a new trend, RSI will leap up, trend can continue and RSI will begin creeping back to 50.
A falling RSI does not measure a falling off of a trend.
A cup of coffee you owe me, flat white, lactose free, xtra hot with no sugar, thx.
in a bull market its indeed fluctuating between the neutral and overbought zone and in a bear market between neutral and oversold levels. Not sure with what you are saying (RSI is no longer a measure for divergence) .....everything is variable (in time and product) and i think you will find the same divergence in other tools and indicators on a week chart, in other words, "peaks are getting weaker/less reliable"