Fwiw
81% chance top is in for the week
81% chance top is in for the week
The S&P 500 has topped at 2430 on 6/1/17
- Thread starter volente_00
- Start date
If it turns out our Manchurian candidate is in fact in Russia's pocket, @volente_00 will look very clever. The information dribble tells us which way the water flowing...the only question is how deep the valley is (or is it a canyon with a waterfall over the horizon).
This market is a rocket ship, let's hope we're not the Challenger crew.
This market is a rocket ship, let's hope we're not the Challenger crew.
I do agree with this as well, but only he knows his trading plan. I know from my own that often when I stop after a losses, the winners come, and I'm not in them.
I too "feel" as if this market is over-extended, and what should have brought it down, the inability for Trump to do anything about Obamacare you would assume be a catalyst since now he doesn't have that money available for the tax cuts, nor will that be an easy fight either since he hasn't been able to get anything done.
Fundamentals aside, the momentum higher seems strong, but we have also seen that things can turn on a dime. I'm sure the last thing he wants to do is to take a short once the ES opens up 50 points lower. That is what nobody seems to understand. Shorting from highs with a 10 point stop is better than shorting once its already dropping. Only he knows though if his account can take this, but perhaps its not an emotional reaction at all but just part of the plan to try and catch a top which can be very profitable even with a low win rate if your account can take it and your R:R justifies it.
nothing to show for it? I could post my fills in the last 2 weeks and confirm a healthy profit but I am not going to feed the trolls. I showed 2 fills because I was challenged to on both occasions but of course they were dismissed. Of course I wouldn't initiate a new long here that would be a poor trade. yeah i was the guy who said i would be happy to go long a few weeks ago with an 80 point stop and retail chumps were laughing, now price is 40 points higher. I am not claiming this trade, you brought it up, some chump (might have been you) said a similar 'would you go long here' at that time and I simply replied at the time.
Now, even I'll join your naysayers on that one...you're calling a black swan. Absent news, we're headed higher.
Sure there will be some who says all of this can be faked, which is true, but I suspect more will be impressed. If your entries were called in real time, that would of course be that much better. The thing though is that if you have all sorts of fills, it takes away from your "bull market to the moon" stance because you should just get in long and go to sleep. Obviously you're a trader, and anything can happen, and this might be apparent in your fills. Do you even have losing trades in there?
And since this one trade you showed was for a small profit, and these fills that you haven't shared are perhaps also smaller targets, why aren't you just taking a big stop like you suggested? Is this just something you say is appropriate for a fund but not for a retail trader? Often times here at ET, everyone says how a person should trade, and they don't end up trading like that themselves, so really, I find it more interesting to see what a person is doing, not what they are saying.
This was your OP for this thread.
Start still another thread and call a new high, perhaps ?
What specifically is the rationale for a top or a sell-off here?
Let's consider the facts from recent time:
1) The last major leg up on the daily went 100 points before a 'shallow' 50 point pullback.
2) From late 2016 to end of 1st quarter 2017, the market went 320 points up with only a shallow 44 (!) point pullback.
3) We're now up 70 points from the last pullback.
What this tells us is that there's simply no rationale for selling this market based on the concept of being 'overbought', 'overextended' or being 'ripe for a sell-off'.
I don't attempt to trade long-term, so it's not my area of expertise, but I simply don't get why people are trying to position themselves short in this area. To me, the market is displaying strength and based on what's happened in the past, evidence suggests that this market may go a lot higher still.
EDIT: Let's raise the stakes. 2500 seems like a minimum for this leg up.
Let's consider the facts from recent time:
1) The last major leg up on the daily went 100 points before a 'shallow' 50 point pullback.
2) From late 2016 to end of 1st quarter 2017, the market went 320 points up with only a shallow 44 (!) point pullback.
3) We're now up 70 points from the last pullback.
What this tells us is that there's simply no rationale for selling this market based on the concept of being 'overbought', 'overextended' or being 'ripe for a sell-off'.
I don't attempt to trade long-term, so it's not my area of expertise, but I simply don't get why people are trying to position themselves short in this area. To me, the market is displaying strength and based on what's happened in the past, evidence suggests that this market may go a lot higher still.
EDIT: Let's raise the stakes. 2500 seems like a minimum for this leg up.
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there isn't one. no reason to be short and hasn't been for a long time.