The S&P 500 has topped at 2430 on 6/1/17

The S&P 500 has topped at 2430 or is within 22 points of topping

  • Yes your are correct

    Votes: 14 41.2%

  • Hell no you just got lucky last time and are still smoking crack

    Votes: 20 58.8%
  • Total voters
    34
Gotcha said:
I laugh at these posts because its exactly what the classic wisdom says to do, and yet, they also say you have to do what most aren't doing.

Shorting at a confirmed down trend? Come on... that is garbage. Anytime something is confirmed, your stop is large, everyone has seen the move, and only the lucky will be able to get on board and have it continue. Lets look at a chart.

We start with a higher low, great. Then we even put in a higher high, good sign. Then we see another higher low, bull run is clearly still on! (as if) Then we get to the area where we are stuck in the middle. Imagine all those guys who got in on the higher high, still waiting for it to get to break even at least.

Oh ohhhh.. the low broke. Well, now its obvious we made a lower high and a lower low, right? So do we short here since the down trend is confirmed? Unless you short right at the break, you got in probably a few days later, right when it reversed back up and hard (this would be during the Mar08 contract). Then it makes a double bottom right at the beginning on Jun08, but then during Sep08, the double bottom breaks. Once again, do we short because we made a lower low? Nope, it reverses back up again. And so it goes.

Notice that the best short was actually at the previous high where it poked above 1570 in October 2007. Of course most people at the time were saying bull market to the moon.

View attachment 175701

The point is that waiting for a confirmed trend isn't always the safest place to enter. What are you gonna do... short when the ES is down 300 points because now its a down trend? Confirmation kills profits and means unnecessary large stops.

Will shorting here work where we are now at 2460? No idea, but it sure is better than waiting for a break below 2400 and using a 60 point stop. Clearly you aren't going to short just because its going higher, but you certainly shouldn't short just because it makes a lower low as these fail very very often.
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You gotta be kidding me ! Someone that uses common sense in their trading, how refreshing
 
propwarrior said:
for the record i have banked my long as I think we now have a pullback. Looking to rebuy after the pullback.
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and before someone asks if I think there is going to be a pullback why don't i short? because that would be dumb logic. This is a raging bull market so just be patient and wait for dips to buy.
 
Buy1Sell2 said:
Please direct us to the posting(s) which contain the real time entries, exits and stop losses.
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I don't blame you for being sceptical on a trading forum you should be. A few days ago Volente asked me to show proof of a trade I claimed and I posted it up. Here it is attached. See below for the fill, sold 21627 in Dow cash and banked 21475, 8 ticks off the low lol. I am not posting my calls live (why should I?) although I may chime in with a steer every now and again. The main reason I am posting in this thread is to point out the stupidity of being long term short in this market and yes I get a kick out of trolling people who blatantly have no clue what they are doing. I guess you want to see my fill buying 5 lots of Dec Dow near yesterday's low too. enjoy.

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