not much to tell. Spread betting is open to UK resident only and profits are tax free, it's basically trading a tax free CFD. The tax free status of the profits (winnings) is a grey area for professional traders. If you have income from another non trading source such as rental income, another business/employment normally the tax authorities will let it go through tax free. If however you are a professional trader and you have no other form of income then they don't like it. All the professional traders I have met in the prop industry have an IG spread bet account on the side for outright punts. The leverage available is insane but tbf the leverage available on futures is also insane.
The S&P 500 has topped at 2430 on 6/1/17
- Thread starter volente_00
- Start date
not much to tell. Spread betting is open to UK resident only and profits are tax free, it's basically trading a tax free CFD. The tax free status of the profits (winnings) is a grey area for professional traders. If you have income from another non trading source such as rental income, another business/employment normally the tax authorities will let it go through tax free. If however you are a professional trader and you have no other form of income then they don't like it. All the professional traders I have met in the prop industry have an IG spread bet account on the side for outright punts. The leverage available is insane but tbf the leverage available on futures is also insane.
As to the original post, I can see how arguments could be made for both bulls and bears. The bear case. Low to stagnant GDP and job growth, declining retail, auto and home sales. Length of bull market and valuations. Dramatically increasing retail participation. PE expansion. I actually was a bear until the election. The bull case. All the moving averages, Bollinger bands, historical charts, trend charts, etc, still moving from the lower left to the upper right. Buybacks and a friendly fed and administration. The reason I changed from a bear to a bull is because I came to the conclusion that as long as real rates stay negative globally the market will continue to grind up. My next target for a top was winter 2018 because if indeed the fed does continue to raise rates, neutral rates might be in order, which would be in the 2-2.5% range. Additionally, in summer 2007 earnings started declining and then took a nose dive to the end of 2009. So in the winter of next year, 2018, the 10 year trailing PE should be in nose bleed territory. Then I read an article this morning about accounting rule changes to take effect in Jan. The rule change will apparently deviate from GAAP accounting rules to international accounting rules, IFRS. the new rules will help most of corporate America and harm few. So with that, stay long and strong, keep dry powder to buy anytime there is a pullback to the 50 day moving average. The trend, IS your friend.
Once again, the best post in this and the other drama queen top call threads. Pure Gold.
I laugh at these posts because its exactly what the classic wisdom says to do, and yet, they also say you have to do what most aren't doing.
Shorting at a confirmed down trend? Come on... that is garbage. Anytime something is confirmed, your stop is large, everyone has seen the move, and only the lucky will be able to get on board and have it continue. Lets look at a chart.
We start with a higher low, great. Then we even put in a higher high, good sign. Then we see another higher low, bull run is clearly still on! (as if) Then we get to the area where we are stuck in the middle. Imagine all those guys who got in on the higher high, still waiting for it to get to break even at least.
Oh ohhhh.. the low broke. Well, now its obvious we made a lower high and a lower low, right? So do we short here since the down trend is confirmed? Unless you short right at the break, you got in probably a few days later, right when it reversed back up and hard (this would be during the Mar08 contract). Then it makes a double bottom right at the beginning on Jun08, but then during Sep08, the double bottom breaks. Once again, do we short because we made a lower low? Nope, it reverses back up again. And so it goes.
Notice that the best short was actually at the previous high where it poked above 1570 in October 2007. Of course most people at the time were saying bull market to the moon.
The point is that waiting for a confirmed trend isn't always the safest place to enter. What are you gonna do... short when the ES is down 300 points because now its a down trend? Confirmation kills profits and means unnecessary large stops.
Will shorting here work where we are now at 2460? No idea, but it sure is better than waiting for a break below 2400 and using a 60 point stop. Clearly you aren't going to short just because its going higher, but you certainly shouldn't short just because it makes a lower low as these fail very very often.
Trading levels is best r:r, learnt that from Apex82, major levels are best obviously.
If you've traded long enough, you would already know that a sure fire way to blow up is to short breakdowns in a mean reversion index during a bear market. The whipsaw squeezes after stops get run below have smoked many bear market chasers. RTM and fade are like peas in a pod. That is why so many struggle to trade profitably because they run with the sheep and can't mentally grasp the concept of selling at highs and buying at lows as fear and greed has conditioned them to chase price.
I thought the gold post was in the other thread when you said my 2320 target was to conservative from 2400 and that I should wait for 2200
Still waiting on both of them...
for the record i have banked my long as I think we now have a pullback. Looking to rebuy after the pullback.