The S&P 500 has topped at 2430 on 6/1/17

[volente_00]

boy you love taking punishment! I can see technical reasons why people would want to short around 2438-42 but you are going to get run over unless there is some sort of geopolitical breaking news against the flow. The savvy players know where and why people are shorting, this is a classic trap. I was tracking the retail short saturation on that last move down and Dow shorts increased from 81% to 85% in the last couple days, a very blatant sucker punch is on the way. anyways it takes many traders to make a market so GL.

You're like a broken record
Notice everytime I short or sell calls the market pulls back ?
That's how money is made
Trading
Not whining like a little bitch about others who have balls to post their trades live for all to see

 

[volente_00]

A 2383-88 target is a very cautious bullish macro self-admission - especially if you're going to construct multiple threads emphatically proclaiming "The Top" ! That 2383 level is simply the lower band of the bull market channel trend that has been in place since 2009. 2383 tells me that you are scared bullish - which is entirely understandable given your predicament for the past five months and two threads (and counting).

I already posted my trading range for SPX for the year.

You going to post any trades ?
Or just take shots at those who do and continue to vend because you can't trade ?

 

[bone]

You're like a broken record
Notice everytime I short or sell calls the market pulls back ?
That's how money is made
Trading
Not whining like a little bitch about others who have balls to post their trades live for all to see

Are you claiming to be making money now in all of this ?

 

[Gotcha]

He said you would not be permitted to fade a strong multi day/week/month trend and hold it underwater a long time unless it was hedged.

This is a 2 part point. It means that could you take it, but just don't hold it if you're wrong. Lets not forget that once again, every bull ends from a high point. Now tell me, how does price drop from this high point? Is it just retail guys who stop buying? No way, retail guys are the ones who keep buying as you're saying. So it must be the institutions who first stop buying, and then perhaps start shorting. By the time everyone is ready to call it a bear market, the index such as the ES must already be hundreds of points off its high. Is this when institutions short? When we are already hundreds of points lower?

If you think an 85 point stop in the ES is silly 'no matter how well capitalized any institution or individual is' then you are just just showing yourself to be clueless on who the market participants are and how they operate.

So what you're saying is that an 85 point stop means nothing to the big boys, right? Well, this is in complete contradiction to what bone said. He said that no way would any manager let a position go against them like that and fuck up the performance for the team. This tells me that even an institution wouldn't want to hold large stops. Are you arguing with this? Of course you are because you said you were comfortable being long from up there with a stop that was 85 points lower.

 

[bone]

From my experience, institutional traders are much more multi-dimensional and relative-value oriented. (They're almost all spread traders of some sort). Please recall that I used the term "hedge" for good cause in my previous post.

Sure, an big institutional trader may have a huge short block trade of ES go 85 points against him. But he will almost certainly have a corresponding long position - for example, he may also be simultaneously long VIX or long the Russell 3000.

I consulted for an algo trading group a few years ago who did stuff like buy a basket of 20 or so STARS in the S&P and then short the ES as a hedged spread trade.

Big swinging dick institutional traders have so much more breadth of intuition and creativity. They have a carefully constructed a 3-D premise of simultaneous value and overvaluation in markets. They are also hell bent on generating alpha - that's what attracts the big fees. Alpha gets you PAID.

For example, a big swinging institutional dick might buy big blocks of 3 choice gaming stocks like ATVI, EA, and TTWO in a basket and then short a the corresponding correlated hedge (in this case NQ).

When the market went to hell in 2008 I saw guys buying baskets including McDonalds and Campbell's Soup and selling the ES. It was brilliant.

I knew a guy who was long IBM and short HP for like two years straight. His bonuses were life altering.

Any monkey can short a single name because he thinks it's shit. So what. No smarts in that.

Of all the institutional guys I have trained or met in the business, I can only think of a couple who took outright directional risk. It's just not common and most retailers have no clue.

And retail traders can definitely trade relative value in their IB accounts. Even their IRAs.

The other piece is that their are literally millions of variations, permutations, and combinations to this approach. You essentially build your own market. Use your intelligence. Use your creativity. Make yourself valuable.

There really is no institutional trader that I've ever heard about who sits there and buys or sells ES all day long. Those guys don't daytrade this shit. They really don't swing trade this garbage as an isolated trade idea. Seriously. They have big blocks of capital to put to work.

 

[bone]

What gets you hired at an IB or a HF ? Ideas, creativity, intuition.

How many tens of thousands of souls put up a price ladder and a chart and buy or sell a single name each and every day over and over again ?

How scaleable is that for a $10B fund that despises drawdowns ? Those guys don't trade like you trade. Not even close.

 

[Gotcha]

Sure, an big institutional trader may have a huge short block trade of ES go 85 points against him. But he will almost certainly have a corresponding long position - for example, he may also be simultaneously long VIX or long the Russell 3000.

Help me understand here please. By being short ES and long VIX, isn't this the same position? If ES is dropping, which in you are short, then VIX is increasing, in which you are long. How is this a hedge? If ES starts to rally, you lose, and your long VIX should drop, so you lose again. Where is the hedge?

If there is a hedge, like being short ES and buying some calls as insurance, then you lose on one, and gain on the other, but they of course won't be in equal amounts, so you're essentially just lowering profits, via the insurance cost, or lessening losses, by making something on that insurance.

Of all the institutional guys I have trained or met in the business, I can only think of a couple who took outright directional risk. It's just not common and most retailers have no clue.

Is this because ultimately they really don't know which way the market will go? I can of course understand the huge risk involved, but it seems to me like any trading is still making a bet on direction, and hedges and spreading and all that jazz is simply a way to dilute risk, or control risk, but of course at the expense of profits.

Considering that so many funds are underperforming the indexes, or barely crack 10%, I don't see how all this fancy shit is actually leading to extravagant profits.

Edit: Typos!

 

[propwarrior]

You're like a broken record
Notice everytime I short or sell calls the market pulls back ?
That's how money is made
Trading
Not whining like a little bitch about others who have balls to post their trades live for all to see

you are as bad as Surf mate. You keep shorting then adding to losers then miraculously making money as the market moves higher. Your latest call short is another terrible one, way underwater already.

 

[bone]

Yes, I had several typos in a previous post, including the term "long" with the VIX.

 

[propwarrior]

This is a 2 part point. It means that could you take it, but just don't hold it if you're wrong. Lets not forget that once again, every bull ends from a high point. Now tell me, how does price drop from this high point? Is it just retail guys who stop buying? No way, retail guys are the ones who keep buying as you're saying. So it must be the institutions who first stop buying, and then perhaps start shorting. By the time everyone is ready to call it a bear market, the index such as the ES must already be hundreds of points off its high. Is this when institutions short? When we are already hundreds of points lower?


So what you're saying is that an 85 point stop means nothing to the big boys, right? Well, this is in complete contradiction to what bone said. He said that no way would any manager let a position go against them like that and fuck up the performance for the team. This tells me that even an institution wouldn't want to hold large stops. Are you arguing with this? Of course you are because you said you were comfortable being long from up there with a stop that was 85 points lower.

you don't think institutions have large stops? mate you are a clown.