The S&P 500 has topped at 2430 on 6/1/17
- Thread starter volente_00
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Or perhaps this is the parabolic move
If fed hikes and jobs miss again you are going to see what the bond market is predicting come to reality. Couple that with Trump getting nothing done from pissing everyone off. Notice the historic 8-10 year economic expansion pattterns and where are we at right now?
Oh I don't think anyone in here (I'd hope?) thinks we're actually rallying on some kind of fundamental greatness in the economy or future growth. We all know it's going to shit itself at some point. Where you're getting friction from is in attempting to pick an exact top when the market tone just isn't right yet.
It's not IF, it's when. You don't have to justify the various risks out there - as I'd say most pragmatic traders wouldn't disagree. The issue is one of when the market actually wants to get real. Until then you just have to trade what you see.
It's not IF, it's when. You don't have to justify the various risks out there - as I'd say most pragmatic traders wouldn't disagree. The issue is one of when the market actually wants to get real. Until then you just have to trade what you see.
we just missed the jobs and had revisions lower on prior two reports. Any news, and I mean ANY news is a positive news (funny how possible trump's "i-word" in one day was turned into positive news that with Pence it will get even better). There are a lot of sighs that say it ain't right yet nobody cares.
From the contrarian point of view, if there is nothing that can derail this market and all the future positives are already priced in, then who's left to buy except algos and funds that don't want to look stupid not participating in the rally?
I'm not trying to say this is "the" top, but if your trading horizon is long enough, you have decent account size and are discipled enough to place and take the stop, you need to have the balls to step in front of the train. Sure it is a pain trade but if and when it finally works out, the payout is going to be sweet.
what we really need in this market is to get one huge really bad news that causes the market to seriously gap down, then we will see a quick and huge flush down on liquidation selling. They will be tripping one over another to the fire exit doors.
Panic on bad news is not going to result in a sustained and long term sell off unless said bad news is related to something critically fundamental to the economy or future earnings.
The trajectory one should want is more rallying, excuses being made on why we should be rallying and "things are getting better" / "this time is different" type stuff, followed by what looks like a real parabolic move that nobody wants to sell into until it exhausts itself. Then people start taking profits, shorts start getting involved, each cycle involves more selling along with bad earnings and seemingly "we never knew this was a problem!" style news coming out of left field.
I don't care for long term or sustained sell off or bear market. I was simply stating my opinion, that in order to see a good flush (however brief that might be) we may need first to get a large gap down that would cause fire sale liquidation from those trapped. I'm just afraid that with all the algos, ETFs etc nowadays we are going to see sustained buying interrupted by flash crashes, before market finally rolls over.
This is opposed to normal orderly selling when market opens around where it closed.
The following podcast covers the subject nicely:
How's this for a reason why the bull can last longer.
Europe is actually getting its act together and growing earnings and GDP. Euro earnings are still ca 30% below 2008 peak whilst US already exceeded it. Largest US companies will get some of that growth, weakening dollar will also improve USD earnings.
Europe is actually getting its act together and growing earnings and GDP. Euro earnings are still ca 30% below 2008 peak whilst US already exceeded it. Largest US companies will get some of that growth, weakening dollar will also improve USD earnings.