The S&P 500 has topped at 2430 on 6/1/17

The S&P 500 has topped at 2430 or is within 22 points of topping

  • Yes your are correct

    Votes: 14 41.2%

  • Hell no you just got lucky last time and are still smoking crack

    Votes: 20 58.8%
  • Total voters
    34
volente_00 said:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/th...-down-year-after-a-start-like-2017-2017-05-31

:wtf:
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funny article. did the author consider the following issues or he just picked 100th day like there is some freaking magic behind it:

1. the bull run we have had so far
2. Fed slowly removing the punch bowl, ECB about to do the same.
3. markets already pricing in everything positive there is to be priced in the next x years
4. consumer debt again at very very high levels, including sub prime auto loans (yet unemployment rate is so freaking low that would make you think everyone has got the money)
5. China debt bubble about to pop (funny how most brush over it like it's no big deal "china can handle it", didn't they same exact same thing in '06-07 about US...)
6. funny valuations including tesla, snapchats, whatever
7. any news is either a good or great news, whether its ballistic missile being tested, south chine sea issues, trump's stupidity, low or high payroll numbers, I mean everything
8. etc

I'm not saying the market can't go higher, it can go where ever it wants to (though I do wonder who's buying, is it algos?) but if someone is doing an analysis that cover multi year or decade period, IMO they should consider more than stupid 100th day performance to make predictions.

yeah breakout from consolidation (in ES but look at NQ running like there is no tomorrow), but don't they say that most breakouts fail? I guess there are too many shorts getting squeezed now on stops...
 
Max E. said:
Yep, the market gives me a million different ways to fuck up on a daily basis, pretty sure ill be crying about some other trade i effed up on monday. :D

What price are you short from if your stop is 51? I noticed your pretty accurate but you trade with incredibly wide stops, thats kind of where i got to get too.
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Usually 15-25 point stop on swing trades
With a minimum ~ 3:1 r:r

I'm actually much better at day trading ES. I generally use 2-4 point stops on intraday trades With much larger size with minimum ~ 2:1 r:r
 
volente_00 said:
For those that have voted

What is your range prediction for SPX for the rest of 2017 ?

As of right now I have 2170-2500
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I was stopped out today. I don't really know anymore. I think I will just watch for a bit. That is the honest truth.
 
recession2016 said:
idk but the last stage of the bull cycle is the most dangerous to short because euphoria kicks in and there's no telling when it wares out
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I'm afraid it will get even worse than in the past with all that algos buying, ETFs out there etc. A truly parabolic moves
 
Hey Volente,
On what indicators are you basing your prediction?
What time intervals are you using on your chart?
Any non-technical reasoning?

SPX looks high, but I don't see any "clear" indication on it changing it's direction.
And if there's a correction, what percentage are you awaiting?

Give a % guestimation.
Are you talking single or double digits %%%
10-15% would be beautiful, but i kind of see it at 2,5-5 %

I thought DAX was forming a double top a while ago, but that didn't happen. (monthly chart view)

Give us your hopes and dreams haha :D
 
I'd like to see you post your daytrades in the ESJournal again, Volente.

Even though I think you're mad for calling tops in what is basically a one-way market that is geared to go up over time, I know that you're on of the better traders here.
 
propwarrior said:
Data taken from IG which is largest CFD provider (for pikers) in the world. During this last run up they increased shorts from 74% to 86%. I explained this to the OP before but he says I am talking nonsense.
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Except SPX only fell 79 points from the 2400 top when you said a pullback was not going to happen because pikers were short on march 1
 
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