The S&P 500 has topped at 2430 on 6/1/17

[Gotcha]

try zooming out off your 1minute chart mate. yearly, monthly, daily chart all in clear uptrends. context.

each up trend eventually ends on a high, doesn't it? and a major drop starts from said high, correct?

i don't even have to go back to 2007/08 to look for bad cases. here is one... first chart looking pretty good right?

and this next chart not looking too good. in fact, it looks like it dropped to about 1820 from 2025, so right around 10%. and you would say how the first chart looks very bullish on every time frame.. correct?

i'm not predicting what the market will do long term, and of course going long has been the better play these past 8 years, but its very will within the realm of possibility that the high for 2017 is already in. here is what the current chart looks like in the same format. we either break 2450 and keep going or we don't, simple as that. while everyone knocks @volente_00 for his short call, I don't see anyone saying they are going long here for 100 points up.

 

[i960]

VX QUV fly + TED (3m LIBOR - 3m Bills) overlay:

 

[propwarrior]

VX QUV fly + TED (3m LIBOR - 3m Bills) overlay:

View attachment 174875

wrong thread? looks like a bitch to margin that.

 

[propwarrior]

each up trend eventually ends on a high, doesn't it? and a major drop starts from said high, correct?

i don't even have to go back to 2007/08 to look for bad cases. here is one... first chart looking pretty good right?

View attachment 174872

and this next chart not looking too good. in fact, it looks like it dropped to about 1820 from 2025, so right around 10%. and you would say how the first chart looks very bullish on every time frame.. correct?

View attachment 174873

i'm not predicting what the market will do long term, and of course going long has been the better play these past 8 years, but its very will within the realm of possibility that the high for 2017 is already in. here is what the current chart looks like in the same format. we either break 2450 and keep going or we don't, simple as that. while everyone knocks @volente_00 for his short call, I don't see anyone saying they are going long here for 100 points up.

View attachment 174874

enough of the hindsight charts. Are you calling a top here and if so where is your stop?

 

[Gotcha]

enough of the hindsight charts. Are you calling a top here and if so where is your stop?

Are you calling a long and where is your stop?

Technically you were very bullish at the beginning of the day when ES was 10 points higher, so you should already be 10 points under water right now.

 

[i960]

wrong thread? looks like a bitch to margin that.

Nah just pointing out that the front-end of the VIX curve (via QU [aug/sep]) is flattening along with the TED spread increasing (clearly flattening yield curve stuff involved [but LIBOR just hanging out?]) and that both of these things might be pointing to some short/medium-term fun. Maybe @Martinghoul or @Maverick74 have an opinion on TED here...?

I actually think both you and volente might be right at the same time, but it's going to be at different points in time.

 

[propwarrior]

Are you calling a long and where is your stop?

Technically you were very bullish at the beginning of the day when ES was 10 points higher, so you should already be 10 points under water right now.

I would be very happy long here. A break below 2350 would cause me to get flat.

 

[Gotcha]

I would be very happy long here. A break below 2350 would cause me to get flat.

Wow... ok.. so you would use something like an 85 point stop given that we are at 2435. Lets be generous and call this at least a 1:1 trade, which means you would need to get to 2520 to hit a target. (but most people make their target more than their stop, ideally a 1:1.5 or 1:2 in terms of risk:reward, so the actual target would/should be higher)

I certainly don't trade with targets like this and have no idea where we will be hours from now. All I'm saying is that at any time, we are just as likely to go up as down. Yes, the up trend favors the longs, but that downturn can come at any time.

Some of the NQ cheerleading squad is all of a sudden absent from the discussion thread after the huge drop on June 9. So although bulls may be right more often than the bears, it seems like when they are wrong, and can't admit it, or can't get out, they disappear.

Lets also face it, most making calls aren't really trading it, or not trading it the same way they are calling it in the threads.

 

[propwarrior]

Wow... ok.. so you would use something like an 85 point stop given that we are at 2435. Lets be generous and call this at least a 1:1 trade, which means you would need to get to 2520 to hit a target. (but most people make their target more than their stop, ideally a 1:1.5 or 1:2 in terms of risk:reward, so the actual target would/should be higher)

I certainly don't trade with targets like this and have no idea where we will be hours from now. All I'm saying is that at any time, we are just as likely to go up as down. Yes, the up trend favors the longs, but that downturn can come at any time.

Some of the NQ cheerleading squad is all of a sudden absent from the discussion thread after the huge drop on June 9. So although bulls may be right more often than the bears, it seems like when they are wrong, and can't admit it, or can't get out, they disappear.

Lets also face it, most making calls aren't really trading it, or not trading it the same way they are calling it in the threads.

You say wow like you are surprised with an 85 point stop. Tights stops are a retail thing. When you trade for an institution you don't use stops it's all about your book and risk management. I have called long with stop it's noted that you refuse to say where your stop is on your short.

 

[Gotcha]

it's noted that you refuse to say where your stop is on your short.

I never said I was short nor do I even know where we will be in an hour. And yes, I'm retail, so no way could an 85 point stop work for me.

I have learned that a tight stop is absolutely the best. If I'm taken out, I can always re-enter. If I see that I keep getting taken out even though I'm not wrong on the direction, then clearly my entries are timed wrong. The trick with tight stops and laser precision entries is getting in just before the move happens. Sure you might have more losers then you'd like, but I also learned that being right was only good for the ego, but not for the PnL. When you lose very little on a tight stop, you're not paralyzed and always able to take the next trade. Its important to be in that frame of mind.