that's nonsense.
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Once again hopelessly wrong. Why not do a little research before vomiting out this crap. Roumania, while it does try to issue debt in it's own currency, is compelled to issue some debt in Euros and some denominated in dollars. It has nowhere near the depth of sovereignty needed to avoid real debt. According to your nonsense Japan should be a country in economic crisis.Romania has its own currency and was badly affected by the economic crisis. It had high government debt and high deficits. The UK was also badly affected and it has its own currency it has high government debt and high deficits. There was also a failure to sell government bonds at that time, which is another failure. Another country on the list is Turkey, it has its own currency plus high government debt and deficits. It has had a currency and debt crisis, look at the result in my data. Look for high government debt, high deficits and high standard deviation. If the country has these regardless of whether they have their own currency or not they seem to enter some form of currency, debt or economic crisis. Look at the scribd document at the bottom of the page linked to below, it is clear.
https://morganisteconomics.blogspot.com/p/euro-crisis.html?q=a+tip
It doesn't matter what currency it is high government debt and high deficits lead to economic crisis. There are all sorts of countries in research across the EU with their own currency's, the euro as their currency and countries that have complete control of their currency like the United Kingdom. If they have high government debt and high deficits they will enter some form of crisis. Check it out google, Romania, Turkey, Hungary and United Kingdom economic crisis. You will see they have entered one since the research was conducted and predicted that they would.
Turkey, as well, issues some debt denominated in dollars!!!
No country that has true depth of sovereignty over the money they issue, that I am aware of, issues debt denominated in units of money other than there own. Countries like turkey have real debt, just like your debt and my debt, if we have any, is real! The U.S. does NOT have real debt. And although I'm no expert on the UK, I doubt the UK has any real debt either!
M
morganist
Once again hopelessly wrong. Why not do a little research before vomiting out this crap. Roumania, while it does try to issue debt in it's own currency, is compelled to issue some debt in Euros and some denominated in dollars. It has nowhere near the depth of sovereignty needed to avoid real debt. According to your nonsense Japan should be a country in economic crisis.
Turkey, as well, issues some debt denominated in dollars!!!
No country that has true depth of sovereignty over the money they issue, that I am aware of, issues debt denominated in units of money other than there own. Countries like turkey have real debt, just like your debt and my debt, if we have any, is real! The U.S. does NOT have real debt. And although I'm no expert on the UK, I doubt the UK has any real debt either!
You are moving away from the point. My statement is if a nation has high government debt and high deficits then it will enter some form of crisis. It does not matter whether it is considered that they have complete control of the currency or whether they issue their debt in another currency, as long as they have high debt and high deficits no matter how it is composed they will enter some form of currency, debt or economic crisis. My research proves there is a link to high government debt plus high deficits and economic crisis. This is my point and I don't understand your position which seems to state the debt levels are irrelevant.
It doesn't matter how you view the debt or even what it may or may not be, the fact is as soon as the reported debt and deficit figures get to certain levels or percentages of GDP economic crises of some sort occur. My work proves this. Try and look at it another way round look at all of the countries in my research that do not have high government debt or high deficits and you will see that they have not had economic crises. The work is conclusive there is a relationship between high government debt and high deficits that leads to economic crises. Low government debt and low deficits avoid economic crises.
M
morganist
Once again hopelessly wrong. Why not do a little research before vomiting out this crap. Roumania, while it does try to issue debt in it's own currency, is compelled to issue some debt in Euros and some denominated in dollars. It has nowhere near the depth of sovereignty needed to avoid real debt. According to your nonsense Japan should be a country in economic crisis.
Turkey, as well, issues some debt denominated in dollars!!!
No country that has true depth of sovereignty over the money they issue, that I am aware of, issues debt denominated in units of money other than there own. Countries like turkey have real debt, just like your debt and my debt, if we have any, is real! The U.S. does NOT have real debt. And although I'm no expert on the UK, I doubt the UK has any real debt either!
This is the other matter you seem to ignore. My work is not just my position it is a published book that is now part of the resources for the Euro. It is one of the documents on the list of resources that are part of the EU publication list, this makes it an official body of work that is acknowledged as observed research and part of the understanding of how the Euro works. In the EU and the Eurozone if government debt levels of deficits reach certain levels the book concludes some form of economic crisis is inevitable.
This seems to be proven true in every circumstance and for every nation that reaches those debt and deficit levels. The other side of the research concludes that nations that avoid high debt and deficit levels avoid economic crisis. I believe this is a valuable observation for economic research and one of the great contributions to economics that my book Euro Crisis has provided. You are arguing against the empirical evidence. Unless you are trying to make another point then I feel you are wrong.
How can I say it? This is so wrong , that there is no word in the English language that can be used to express its utter and absolute its wrongness.It does not matter whether it is considered that they have complete control of the currency or whether they issue their debt in another currency, as long as they have high debt and high deficits no matter how it is composed they will enter some form of currency, debt or economic crisis.
What debt levels are you speaking of?This seems to be proven true in every circumstance and for every nation that reaches those debt and deficit levels.
M
morganist
What debt levels are you speaking of?
The debt levels and deficit levels shown in the paper I linked to in the scribd document at the bottom of the linked page below.
https://morganisteconomics.blogspot.com/p/euro-crisis.html
There is an evaluation of the deficit spending levels of all of the EU nations over a decade. This is the research that predicted which nations in the EU would enter into economic crisis and it has been proven accurate. Are you not looking at the link that displays the data?
M
morganist
How can I say it? This is so wrong , that there is no word in the English language that can be used to express its utter and absolute its wrongness.
There is empirical data that backs up this statement. The nations that had high deficits entered economic crisis. The data was used to predict which nations would enter economic crisis.
There is an evaluation of the deficit spending levels of all of the EU nations over a decade. This is the research that predicted which nations in the EU would enter into economic crisis and it has been proven accurate.
Let me take a moment to make a few basic points that you're not aware of.
1. The countries of the EU monetary union all issue bonds denominated in euros, but none of them has sovereign control over the issuing of Euros!! The debt of these EU nations is real.
2. The situation as to the members of the EU monetary union is analogous to that of the individual States of the United States. Each State issues bonds denominated in Dollars, but none has sovereign control over the issuance of dollars. The States of the U.S. can all go bankrupt because they have real debt! And real deficits!!! (Of course, in practice, the Federal government would step in and help them restructure their debt long before they actually went bankrupt.)
3. The United States, Canada, Australia, the UK, Japan, and all other nations that have sovereign control over their own currency, issue debt denominated only in that currency, and therefore do not have any outstanding bonds denominated in another nations currency, have NO REAL DEBT in the sense that the members of the EU monetary union, or the individual States of the United States, actually have real debt. The nations without real debt can run up deficits forever and never have to pay a cent on them and still have sound economies, so long as they don't issue too much money relative to their productivity. It is this latter constraint that counts, not how high their fictitious debt and fictitious deficits are. Each of these debtless nations, employ monetary policies designed to keep their economies supplied with the right amount of base money to assure liquidity in commerce and adequate savings and investment money without intolerable inflation. It's a difficult task, which can only be imperfectly done.
I do understand why the average person on the street does not, and can not, understand this. But I do hope this can eventually sink in with you, because there is no way you can call yourself an economist in the 21st century, without understanding this. If you are a Twenty-First Century economist you had better understand this, or you'll be condemned to go on proposing all manner of screwball measures because you are concerned about the so-called "debt" level.
This "debt," for the debtless nations, is the same as the net sum of all the amounts of new outside money put into their economies each fiscal year. As their populations and economies grow their productivity generally grows as well. These debtless nations, must expand the amount of outside money in their respective economies according to productivity growth or suffer recession and deflation. All of these nations use fractional reserve banking and run on credit. They can not tolerate deflation.
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M
morganist
Let me take a moment to make a few basic points that you're not aware of.
1. The countries of the EU monetary union all issue bonds denominated in euros, but none of them has sovereign control over the issuing of Euros!! The debt of these EU nations is real.
2. The situation as to the members of the EU monetary union is analogous to that of the individual States of the United States. Each State issues bonds denominated in Dollars, but none has sovereign control over the issuance of dollars. The States of the U.S. can all go bankrupt because they have real debt! And real deficits!!! (Of course, in practice, the Federal government would step in and help them restructure their debt long before they actually went bankrupt.)
3. The United States, Canada, Australia, the UK, Japan, and all other nations that have sovereign control over their own currency, issue debt denominated only in that currency, and therefore do not have any outstanding bonds denominated in another nations currency, have NO REAL DEBT in the sense that the members of the EU monetary union, or the individual States of the United States, actually have real debt. The nations without real debt can run up deficits forever and never have to pay a cent on them and still have sound economies, so long as they don't issue too much money relative to their productivity. It is this latter constraint that counts, not how high their fictitious debt and fictitious deficits are. Each of these debtless nations, employ monetary policies designed to keep their economies supplied with the right amount of base money to assure liquidity in commerce and adequate savings and investment money without intolerable inflation. It's a difficult task, which can only be imperfectly done.
I do understand why the average person on the street does not, and can not, understand this. But I do hope this can eventually sink in with you, because there is no way you can call yourself an economist in the 21st century, without understanding this. If you are a Twenty-First Century economist you had better understand this, or you'll be condemned to go on proposing all manner of screwball measures because you are concerned about the so-called "debt" level.
This "debt," for the debtless nations, is the same as the net sum of all the amounts of new outside money put into their economies each fiscal year. As their populations and economies grow their productivity generally grows as well. These debtless nations, must expand the amount of outside money in their respective economies according to productivity growth or suffer recession and deflation. All of these nations use fractional reserve banking and run on credit. They can not tolerate deflation.
Answer to 1.)
The UK, Romania, Hungary and Turkey all have their own currency the outcome was the same when they had high debt and high deficits, economic crisis occurred. It does not matter which currency the debt is issued in, whether a nation has complete control of its currency or whether it is in the Euro or not high debt and high deficts equals economic crisis in the future. The research proves this.
Answer to 2.)
First we are dicussing Europe and not all of the nations in the research are part of the Eurozone that uses the Euro. Second the research has proven that nations with their own currency are even inevitably going to enter into economic crisis if they have high debt or deficits.
Answer to 3.)
Countries with their own currencies can run up debt as long as they want but they will not have sound economies. The research predicted that the nations with high government debt would have their economic crisis, this is true of the nations that have their currency including the UK. The maount of debt they are issuing whether it is real or not massively exceeds the productivity of the nation, if it did not then they would not have to issue the debt in the first place.
The evidence is conclusive if nations have too high government debt or deficits the economy will encounter some form of economic crisis in the future.