The Rise And Fall Of America

[newwurldmn]

I actually don't disagree with Simon, although I admit that like Ehrlich I've had to come around to his point of view (I'm not sure if Ehrlich did come around or was just a good sport paying off his bet). His assertion is that as demand goes up, the price goes up, and that leads to innovation and increased effort at finding more of a commodity so there's never really a shortage, which has generally played out since he wrote the original book. It's especially applicable to pollution and things like renewable energy and efficiency.

My assertion is much different, I'm simply saying that if the whole world, operating under "Simon's Law" we'll call it, has a steady state growth rate of around 2%, then it's not possible for a China or India to have an average of 6% growth rate forever. The factors Simon lists, as I recall from admittedly a while ago read, apply equally to a China as a U.S. If "Simon's Law" is allowing for 2% growth, and if anything China and India are under-innovating the rest of the world, there's no reason to think they could somehow take advantage of the factors Simon iterates at 3X the rate of the rest of the world. At the point things like pollution and underfunded pension liability, and the rest of the factors the rest of us deal with catch up to them, their grown goes to 2% like everyone else's. And I'd submit we're rapidly approaching that point, although I'll be the first to admit that I'm not expert enough to know exactly when that will be.

Erhlich is (was?) a fucking weirdo. He wouldn't let his kids watch movies with families with more than two kids who were happy.

 

[OddTrader]

F-35 Total Costs Climb Past $1.5 Trillion — How High Will They Go?


By Ciro Scotti
July 13, 2017


http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/2017/...-Climb-Past-15-Trillion-How-High-Will-They-Go

In April, the General Accounting Office said “mission software” problems were among the reasons causing delays that it expected would add $1.5 billion to program costs in 2018 alone.

The Bloomberg story by Tony Capaccio said a decision by the Air Force to extend its planned procurement “by an additional six years from fiscal 2038 to fiscal 2044” — buying 60 jets a year, down from 80 — was also jacking up total acquisition costs.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fifth-generation_jet_fighter

 

[triggertrader]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fifth-generation_jet_fighter

Watch the video in the original post. It explains everything.

 

[Sig]

Erhlich is (was?) a fucking weirdo. He wouldn't let his kids watch movies with families with more than two kids who were happy.

I hadn't heard that one. Sounds a bit like an urban legend to me especially given that he has only had one kid (singular), although given that I grew up in a fundamentalist house where we didn't have a TV and couldn't watch movies of any kind because we might be infected with ungodly thoughts, I know that kind of thought process isn't uncommon among extremists so no surprise it would extend to the other end of the spectrum. If nothing else he was most definitely wrong with his predictions. At least he was self-aware and intellectually honest enough to admit he lost his bet with Simon and pay off, which is far more than you can say for the volpis of the world who simply insist that the facts are wrong when they don't comport to their fabricated worldview.

 

[tommcginnis]

Overall Best Countries Ranking

The overall ranking of Best Countries measures global performance on a variety of metrics.

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/overall-full-list


https://media.beam.usnews.com/ce/e7...1110-best-countries-overall-rankings-2018.pdf

USA top in Power, Entrepreneurship, and Cultural Influence.

But not even close in school math, school geography, infant mortality.... "Hoo boy."

But Lo! We're "killin' it" in sex ed!! Yessireee. In the age of the Interwebs, when Johnny and Suzy both know at 12 SO MUCH MORE than you or I did
at 22 [ ].... we've got to take class time and recess time and keep them parked in their seats, to hear about sex. Sex!!!
Fergawdsakes.
And then we wonder at Johnny and Suzy not knowing how to handle parentheses and exponents, even though we've stoked 'em full of re-purposed diet drugs "Amphetamine Salts".....

Deep-six-figure superintendents and coaches, and classroom teachers who qualify for welfare.

Okay. I'm done.

 

[Sig]

But not even close in school math, school geography, infant mortality.... "Hoo boy."

But Lo! We're "killin' it" in sex ed!! Yessireee. In the age of the Interwebs, when Johnny and Suzy both know at 12 SO MUCH MORE than you or I did at 22 [ ].... we've got to take class time and recess time and keep them parked in their seats, to hear about sex.
And then we wonder at Johnny and Suzy not know how to handle parentheses and exponents, even though we've stoked 'em full of re-purposed diet drugs "Amphetamine Salts".....

Okay. I'm done.

Careful or you're gonna start sounding like a grumpy old man

The think I find interesting as the father of middle-school/high school kids is that at the high end "kids these days" have access to far more advanced STEM and humanities courses than we did in my day, I have a freshman in public school doing stuff I didn't see until college as an electrical engineer. And many of my kids classmates are doing amazing stuff, go to a science fair and it will blow you away and the same with some of the social enterprise/social impact work they're doing. So I think it's less "kids these days" and more a reflection of wealth disparity trickling down to education.

 

[newwurldmn]

I hadn't heard that one. Sounds a bit like an urban legend to me especially given that he has only had one kid (singular), although given that I grew up in a fundamentalist house where we didn't have a TV and couldn't watch movies of any kind because we might be infected with ungodly thoughts, I know that kind of thought process isn't uncommon among extremists so no surprise it would extend to the other end of the spectrum. If nothing else he was most definitely wrong with his predictions. At least he was self-aware and intellectually honest enough to admit he lost his bet with Simon and pay off, which is far more than you can say for the volpis of the world who simply insist that the facts are wrong when they don't comport to their fabricated worldview.

He was a popular citation in highschool debate. I remember someone telling me this story then. But "kids" vs "kid" makes sense as it reinforces his beliefs about overpopulation. I haven't followed him since then so I don't know if he recanted or not. from what you are writing, it sounds like he's changed his mind.

 

[OddTrader]

Watch the video in the original post. It explains everything.

1. I did watch it, more than twice - per your advice/request.

But I myself don't quite catch what are the key points you would like me/us to pay much attention. Likely due to my comprehension ability.

Would you mind writing a summary for us to view how everything is explained in your summary?


2. I think the world has changed. Long time ago, many new nations like the US and Australia were created after people finding and cultivating a new land overseas.

I am just wondering whether there is any political system and structure of a nation that can exist forever without any major changes. e.g. USSR, EU, etc.


3. I can recall I did mention a proposed system below that I think I like it before:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy

Cosmopolitan
Main article: Cosmopolitan democracy

Cosmopolitan democracy, also known as Global democracy or World Federalism, is a political system in which democracy is implemented on a global scale, either directly or through representatives. An important justification for this kind of system is that the decisions made in national or regional democracies often affect people outside the constituency who, by definition, cannot vote. By contrast, in a cosmopolitan democracy, the people who are affected by decisions also have a say in them.[131]

According to its supporters, any attempt to solve global problems is undemocratic without some form of cosmopolitan democracy. The general principle of cosmopolitan democracy is to expand some or all of the values and norms of democracy, including the rule of law; the non-violent resolution of conflicts; and equality among citizens, beyond the limits of the state. To be fully implemented, this would require reforming existing international organisations, e.g. the United Nations, as well as the creation of new institutions such as a World Parliament, which ideally would enhance public control over, and accountability in, international politics.

Cosmopolitan Democracy has been promoted, among others, by physicist Albert Einstein,[132] writer Kurt Vonnegut, columnist George Monbiot, and professors David Held and Daniele Archibugi.[133] The creation of the International Criminal Court in 2003 was seen as a major step forward by many supporters of this type of cosmopolitan democracy.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cosmopolitan_democracy


Origin and development

The victory of Western liberal states ending the Cold War inspired the hope that international relations could be guided by the ideals of democracy and the rule of law. In the early 1990s, a group of thinkers developed the political project of cosmopolitan democracy with the aim of providing intellectual arguments in favour of an expansion of democracy, both within states and at the global level. While some significant successes have been achieved in terms of democratization within states, much less has been attained in democratizing the global system.

In different forms, the necessity to expand democratic procedures beyond the nation-state has been supported by political philosopher Jürgen Habermas,[8] and sociologist Ulrich Beck.[9]

Criticisms of cosmopolitan democracy have come from realist, marxist, communitarian and multicultural perspectives. Democratic theorist Robert Dahl[10] has expressed his doubts about the possibility of expanding democracy in international organizations to any significant degree, as he believes that democracy diminishes with size. Opponents of Dahl's approach point to the fact that bigger countries are not necessarily less democratic. For example, there is no correlation between voters' turnout and population size; in fact it is smallest in countries with fewer than 100,000 citizens.[citation needed]


Political programme

The idea of cosmopolitan democracy has been advocated with reference to the reform of international organizations. This includes the institution of the International Criminal Court, a directly elected World Parliament or world assembly of governments, and more widely the democratization of international organizations.[11] Supporters of cosmopolitan democracy have been sceptical about the effectiveness of military interventions, even when they are apparently motivated by humanitarian intentions. They have instead suggested popular diplomacy and arms control.

 

[triggertrader]

1. I did watch it, more than twice - per your advice/request.

But I myself don't quite catch what are the key points you would like me/us to pay much attention. Likely due to my comprehension ability.

Would you mind writing a summary for us to view how everything is explained in your summary?


2. I think the world has changed. Long time ago, many new nations like the US and Australia were created after people finding and cultivating a new land overseas.

I am just wondering whether there is any political system and structure of a nation that can exist forever without any major changes. e.g. USSR, EU, etc.


3. I can recall I did mention a proposed system below that I think I like it before:

Well in the very word you use "system" lies the problem. In order to obtain the maximum amount of freedom, the individual needs to be empowered. "System" is implies a collective. People live, function and prosper on a profit motive. This motive as illustrated by the philosopher Adam Smith indirectly benefits others. "Systems" are something people are forced into under the rule of government. The results is stagnation, booms and busts and in most cases tyranny.
Nothing is forever. Changes happen as a result of many factors which include technological advancements, education of the masses, geography and war among other things.
The key points in the video are quite clear. Democracy and the growth of government caused a rapid decline in a once prosperous country.

 

[OddTrader]

A system is a regularly interacting or interdependent group of items forming a unified whole.[1] Every system is delineated by its spatial and temporal boundaries, surrounded and influenced by its environment, described by its structure and purpose and expressed in its functioning.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/System

Cultural system

A cultural system may be defined as the interaction of different elements of culture. While a cultural system is quite different from a social system, sometimes both together are referred to as a "sociocultural system". A major concern of the social sciences is the problem of order.


Economic system
Main article: Economic system

An economic system is a mechanism (social institution) which deals with the production, distribution and consumption of goods and services in a particular society. The economic system is composed of people, institutions and their relationships to resources, such as the convention of property. It addresses the problems of economics, like the allocation and scarcity of resources.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_system

A political system is a system of politics and government. It is usually compared to the legal system, economic system, cultural system, and other social systems. However, this is a very simplified view of a much more complex system of categories involving the questions of who should have authority and what the government's influence on its people and economy should be.