I think it is way too soon to predict the outcome of the 2010 election. The pundits all predict republican gains because of high unemployment.
I think it is much more complicated. It seems we have at least six de facto political factions. At the left we have Democrats, to the right of them we have Democrat Lites, in the middle we have the Republican Lites headed by Obama, to the right of middle we have the Obstructionist Republicans, and on the far right we have the American Taliban --otherwise known as the Biblical branch of the Obstructionist Republicans, finally there are the Independents who align mainly with Democrat Lites and Republican Lites.
I haven't a clue who will emerge victorious, but I wouldn't want to bet either against the Republican Lites, or with the American Taliban. It would seem the outcome will be determined by whether the Independents align more with the Democrat Lites or the Republican Lites.