The Renaissance Technologies model has been resolved.

[Laissez Faire]

When you are getting into entries, C it statistically below A, but can be even or above. (Extended, flat, running)

I won't take a trade unless we are on an extended C.

Anyway, what we are talking about is that back when bitcoin was trading at 16k you could predict how high the rally would be this cycle. The same when bitcoin topped in NOV 2021 where the fibs were calling for 13k-16k at the end of that cycle. Technically you could have predicted the drop to 16k, and the subsequent rally to 70k this year, way back in Nov 2021 using only Fibonacci levels.

Care to post an EW (?) analysis of S&P 500?

Thanks.

 

[taowave]

Stage analysis is not a replacement for Elliot wave,nor do the Stage "analysts" claim it has any predictive power....Its a framework to operate within...

Stage analysis is a crude replacement. It is incomplete analysis. The waves are not that organized as there are different degree cycles at play. Currently we are in a triangle so it could still leg up before we head down in a single or double correction to around 48k early 2025, This would align with the typical drop after a halvening preceding the launch to Lambo territory. My current plan is puts if it legs up to the 80's, and then flip to calls in 2025...don't give a crap about what happens in between.

Or this could happen who knows
https://charts.bitbo.io/cycle-repeat/

 

[wxytrader]

Care to post an EW (?) analysis of S&P 500?

Thanks.

I haven't been following SPY so just ran it through some EW software I subscribe to. The 3rd wave can end at 100% but not uncommon for it to extend to 161.8% or beyond. Looking at the length of wave 1, I'd be surprised it wave 3 ended here, although the only rule is wave 3 can't be the shortest of the impulse waves (1,3,5)...it doesn't have to be the longest. So if I extrapolate from that I would say wave 3 needs to extend more so it can reduce the length of wave 5 or be longer than wave 1. One of those things has to happen. If it did pull back to 4 now, then I would expect a shorter wave 5.

I already posted a C&H when people were complaining how this rally is seems to be never ending. Funny that it was a crude example but comes to the same result.

This rally is nothing compared to 2020 which price more than doubled from $220 to $480. It must go up before it can capitulate and continue in a long term bull bias trajectory as it has since the beginning of the stock market. It can still go another 50-100 points too lol...it's not even half the length of the rally in 2020 yet. Market confidence should be at ridiculous levels at that point and primed for a rug pull.

Just look at the chart...we had a massive capitulation followed by a v recovery, followed by a long sweeping downtrend for an entire year, that was barely recovering before yet another a correction...this bull run has barely begun. Add to that this is an election cylcle lol. Sounds like some people keep bucking the trend hoping to get lucky with puts or shorting.

What is the Target for Cup and Handle Pattern?
The target with the cup and handle pattern is the height of the cup added to the breakout point of the handle.

If the height of the cup is the previous rally, then this could put us at $640 or higher before a correction.


View attachment 337262

 

[Laissez Faire]

I haven't been following SPY so just ran it through some EW software I subscribe to. The 3rd wave can end at 100% but not uncommon for it to extend to 161.8% or beyond. Looking at the length of wave 1, I'd be surprised it wave 3 ended here, although the only rule is wave 3 can't be the shortest of the impulse waves (1,3,5)...it doesn't have to be the longest. So if I extrapolate from that I would say wave 3 needs to extend more so it can reduce the length of wave 5 or be longer than wave 1. One of those things has to happen. If it did pull back to 4 now, then I would expect a shorter wave 5.

I already posted a C&H when people were complaining how this rally is seems to be never ending. Funny that it was a crude example but comes to the same result.

Thank you. To be fair, it's kind of vague, though. Directional trading (not investing) requires precision. What seems crystal clear in hindsight is usually not so in the heat of the moment.

I posted my 'napkin math' for S&P in 2024 somewhere else. I thought I posted it here, too, but couldn't find it now. Anyway, here's what I posted by end of January in a private channel. The year is still young.

With a 'big picture' bullish view I find it easy to play the long side, but it can be a bumpy road ahead, so I can't trade on this alone of course.

Now that we hit my conservative target already, it's looking more like 5500 and even 5700.

If we zoom out a bit, this year's an election year in the US. Historically, these have a very high probability of being a green year. Some of the down years also seemed to have occured during financial crises (for example 2008).

Now, if we look at green years on the S&P 500 - very, very few green years have had a high print less than 10 %. In fact, the average high print is over 20 %.

So, if we assume this will be an up year and use a conservative 10 % upside target - S&P should print 5250 this year.

With 15 % - the target is 5485.

20 % seems crazy, but that would be 5723.

Not necessarily a prediction, just information to keep in mind as I'm sure many thinks higher prices are crazy from here, but I don't. Always good to keep in mind that the stock market is not the economy. As long as there's money flowing into stocks (like my girlfriend ignorantly saving in stocks every single month regardless of what's going on in the economy or the Norwegian Government Pension Fund buying stocks with a 50 year horizon) they will keep going higher. And indices in particular are rigged to the upside long term.

 

[poopy]

I haven't been following SPY so just ran it through some EW software I subscribe to. The 3rd wave can end at 100% but not uncommon for it to extend to 161.8% or beyond. Looking at the length of wave 1, I'd be surprised it wave 3 ended here, although the only rule is wave 3 can't be the shortest of the impulse waves (1,3,5)...it doesn't have to be the longest. So if I extrapolate from that I would say wave 3 needs to extend more so it can reduce the length of wave 5 or be longer than wave 1. One of those things has to happen. If it did pull back to 4 now, then I would expect a shorter wave 5.

View attachment 337739


I already posted a C&H when people were complaining how this rally is seems to be never ending. Funny that it was a crude example but comes to the same result.

This is garbage.

 

[wxytrader]

This is garbage.

Lets see an example of your charts...I will fix for you. Let me guess support and resistance, channels? Order blocks?

Thank you. To be fair, it's kind of vague, though. Directional trading (not investing) requires precision. What seems crystal clear in hindsight is usually not so in the heat of the moment.

I posted my 'napkin math' for S&P in 2024 somewhere else. I thought I posted it here, too, but couldn't find it now. Anyway, here's what I posted by end of January in a private channel. The year is still young.

With a 'big picture' bullish view I find it easy to play the long side, but it can be a bumpy road ahead, so I can't trade on this alone of course.

Now that we hit my conservative target already, it's looking more like 5500 and even 5700.

? This was an example of a higher degree on the daily chart. If you want to get more specific and start validating then go down a degrees or two and start charting the hourly chart. You can chart the sub-divisions between the 2 - 3 waves, ie (2) 1,2,3,4,5 (3), and then chart the sub-divisions between the 1-2 waves there etc.

 

[Laissez Faire]

lol this is basically just eyeballing the daily chart...if you want to get more specific and start validating then go down a degrees or two and start charting the hourly chart. You can chart the degrees between the 2 - 3 waves, ie (2) 1,2,3,4,5 (3), and then do a bunch of degrees between the 1-2 waves there etc.

I don't use EW and it doesn't interest me at this point in time. Was just curious to see an analysis from a proponent of the method.

Thank you.

 

[wxytrader]

Stage analysis is not a replacement for Elliot wave,nor do the Stage "analysts" claim it has any predictive power....Its a framework to operate within...

It's nothing. You can't apply it to anything real time.

 

[taowave]

Wx,start a thread on EW and put some trades on the books...

All I have seen from you is alot of boasting and watching CLSK go 35 percent against you..

 

[wxytrader]

I don't use EW and it doesn't interest me at this point in time. Was just curious to see an analysis from a proponent of the method.

Thank you.

How? I haven't even looked at SPY in ages and in a few minutes I have an idea where price is going, where I would enter, where I would take profits, and where I would load up. This is with the bare minimum of EW.