The Renaissance Technologies model has been resolved.

[taowave]

It's a coin flip at best.Nothing wrong with that assuming you have decent money management.In no way is it predictive. Bets are made on the likelihood of an outcome,i.e probability.

IProperly used,I have nothing against Elliot Wave other than its very difficult to backtest in its purest form. I think Fib is absolute trash. However, I do incorporate "waves",but in a far more practical manner.

A good trader should have a pretty good sized account...If they dont,they are either just starting out,or didn't account for the black swan

I just showed you that EW is not flipping a coin. Here I'll do you a solid. Run the fib extension tool from the swing low to the swing high, there are actually two so you can get some confluence. Now YOU can forecast the next 2 price targets and even the time frame. No charting required whatsoever.

btw I'm testing on sub 25k account. I actually don't need much more though to create the income I'm looking for. A good trader shouldn't need a huge account for decent returns. Those reddit guys are trading with a 10M account...their actual rate of return is pretty average.

 

[wxytrader]

It's a coin flip at best.Nothing wrong with that assuming you have decent money management.In no way is it predictive. Bets are made on the likelihood of an outcome,i.e probability.

It's entirely predictive. Moreso than any other method available. The fibonacci ext level is not an assumption, its a pre-determined level that must be realized. I've proven this with the lows in NOV, and the highs in JAN that were measurable a year prior simply with fib levels.

 

[poopy]

It's entirely predictive. Moreso than any other method available. The fibonacci ext level is not an assumption, its a pre-determined level that must be realized. I've proven this with the lows in NOV, and the highs in JAN that were measurable a year prior simply with fib levels.

Start a journal with your absurd EW BS.

 

[taowave]

The longer you believe in the predictive powers of any methodology without the "math"to back it up,the lower your odds of being successful .


And the odds aren't great to begin with

It's entirely predictive. Moreso than any other method available. The fibonacci ext level is not an assumption, its a pre-determined level that must be realized. I've proven this with the lows in NOV, and the highs in JAN that were measurable a year prior simply with fib levels.

 

[deaddog]

It's entirely predictive. Moreso than any other method available. The fibonacci ext level is not an assumption, its a pre-determined level that must be realized.

The problem I see with EW is that price action determins where you are in the waves, like all indicators price has to move before the indicator moves.
You can start a pattern but if one of the rules is broken it becomes an invalid pattern and you have to redraw the waves.
Right now with BTC it started to look like a corrective wave.
73.8 to 60.8 could be wave A
60.8 to 71.8 could be wave B
But to be a valid pattern wave C has to be below wave A
So until price moves in one direction or the other you don't know for sure if it's a corrective wave or a continuation of the motive wave. How do you predict?

 

[wxytrader]

The problem I see with EW is that price action determins where you are in the waves, like all indicators price has to move before the indicator moves.
You can start a pattern but if one of the rules is broken it becomes an invalid pattern and you have to redraw the waves.
Right now with BTC it started to look like a corrective wave.
73.8 to 60.8 could be wave A
60.8 to 71.8 could be wave B
But to be a valid pattern wave C has to be below wave A
So until price moves in one direction or the other you don't know for sure if it's a corrective wave or a continuation of the motive wave. How do you predict?

When you are getting into entries, C it statistically below A, but can be even or above. (Extended, flat, running)

I won't take a trade unless we are on an extended C.

Anyway, what we are talking about is that back when bitcoin was trading at 16k you could predict how high the rally would be this cycle. The same when bitcoin topped in NOV 2021 where the fibs were calling for 13k-16k at the end of that cycle. Technically you could have predicted the drop to 16k, and the subsequent rally to 70k this year, way back in Nov 2021 using only Fibonacci levels.

 

[deaddog]

When you are getting into entries, C it statistically below A, but can be even or above. (Extended, flat, running)

I won't take a trade unless we are on an extended C.

Anyway, what we are talking about is that back when bitcoin was trading at 16k you could predict how high the rally would be this cycle. The same when bitcoin topped in NOV 2021 where the fibs were calling for 13k-16k at the end of that cycle. Technically you could have predicted the drop to 16k, and the subsequent rally to 70k this year, way back in Nov 2021 using only Fibonacci levels.

So are we at the end of the cycle?
Can you predict whether we have an extended, flat, or running corrective wave? Doesn't that depend on the future price action? Are we in a corrective wave now or an extention of the last motive wave?
From what I see you are waiting to see what price will do before making a trade.
You are hoping for a sharp decline to start a position and then average into it.
Is this much different from relying on stage analysis?

 

[wxytrader]

Technically you could have predicted the drop to 16k, and the subsequent rally to 70k this year, way back in Nov 2021 using only Fibonacci levels.

Stage analysis is a crude replacement. It is incomplete analysis. The waves are not that organized as there are different degree cycles at play. Currently we are in a triangle so it could still leg up before we head down in a single or double correction to around 48k early 2025, This would align with the typical drop after a halvening preceding the launch to Lambo territory. My current plan is puts if it legs up to the 80's, and then flip to calls in 2025...don't give a crap about what happens in between.

Or this could happen who knows
https://charts.bitbo.io/cycle-repeat/

 

[deaddog]

Stage analysis is a crude replacement. It is incomplete analysis. The waves are not that organized as there are different degree cycles at play. Currently we are in a triangle so it could still leg up before we head down in a single or double correction to around 48k early 2025, This would align with the typical drop after a halvening preceding the launch to Lambo territory. My current plan is puts if it legs up to the 80's, and then flip to calls in 2025...don't give a crap about what happens in between.

Or this could happen who knows
https://charts.bitbo.io/cycle-repeat/

So it might go up or it might go down. My guess is you'll be correct in that predidtion at some time.
The other thing I have noticed when reading about trading using EW is that stops are suggested for the times the analysis is invalid.
Here is what you should do at this point but put a stop here in case things change.

 

[deaddog]

Or this could happen who knows

I was under the impression that you did because of your EW/Fib analysis.